Sunday, December 2, 2007

Heisman Race and BCS mess

First, needless to say, I'm an idiot. I pretty much called this whole BCS mess for the last weekend and foresaw an LSU-Ohio State matchup but forgot to post about it. And sure enough, West Virginia and Missouri choked, though in Missouri's case, even Las Vegas expected them to lose. West Virginia came up small in a big situation like they always seem to do.
So why LSU and Ohio State? The Ohio State part is easy. They're a one-loss conference champion and those are rare this season, so they're in. The other conference champs? LSU destroyed Virginia Tech earlier this year, so they get the nod over them. USC lost to Stanford earlier this year, so they're automatically out. West Virginia just lost to Pitt so they're out. And then there's Oklahoma, who just demolished #1 Missouri. If LSU is in over Oklahoma, voters are saying basically that the SEC is a tougher conference than the Big 12 this year, and the Big 12 actually had a pretty good year. I think it should actually be Oklahoma-LSU in the BCS title game in the ultimate snub of the Big 10. Let's face it, the Big 10 was lousy this year and winning it was no great accomplishment. However this mess gets sorted out, there's going to be at least one team (either Ohio State, LSU or Oklahoma) that will have a legitimate gripe against the BCS. Then there's Hawaii, who arguably played a tougher schedule than Ohio State did this year. So add them in there too, though I don't think any team has ever jumped more than 10 spots in a poll before.

While this weekend further muddled up the BCS championship game, the Heisman race has never been clearer. The list of Heisman candidates and why they will or won't win:

Matt Ryan - threw 18 INTs this year. End of story. He's not that good, no matter how much ESPN and SI try to hype him up. I think he could be a pretty good NFL quarterback, but he turns the ball over.

Pat White - just lost to Pitt, has fumbled way too much throughout the season.

Dennis Dixon - had a great case to be the Heisman until he got injured. Then again, Oregon hasn't won since, so he might be the most valuable player to his team.

Colt Brennan - plays in the throw-happy Hawaii offense so his numbers are inflated a bit. Threw 14 INTs this year. Did lead his team to an undefeated season, but played no one all year long with the exception of Boise State.

Chase Daniels - put up great numbers this season (69.7 completion %, 33 TDs, 10 INTs), but his games against Oklahoma might have doomed him. Daniels had a great chance to shine in the national spotlight, but he couldn't lead his team to victory or even a close loss.

Darren McFadden - great numbers, but people almost expected more. Plays on a 4 loss team, which hurts. Had 3 monster games (Alabama, LSU, and South Carolina), two of which were on the road and 2 subpar games (Mississippi State and Auburn, 0 TD rushing and 3.1 and 2.5 YPC respectively). Played with less talent around him than most candidates.

Tim Tebow - Plays on a 3 loss team. Rushed for more than 800 yards and threw for more than 3,000 yards. Leading rusher and passer on his team. Broke the record for most rushing touchdowns in the SEC. College Football's only 20-20 man, throwing for 29 TDs and rushing for 22 TDs. Had 2 TDs in every game, even in down games against Auburn and Georgia. Had an unbelievable 7 TD (2 passing, 5 rushing) game against South Carolina.

It seems like a two-man race for the Heisman, but really, it's not. Tebow put up TD numbers that no one has ever seen, and TDs are the most important statistic. He somehow surpassed expectations and hype after helping Florida win the BCS championship as a freshman. It has to be Tebow this year.