BULLS -CELTICS > Sleep
Jesus, triple overtime and counting...
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Saturday, April 25, 2009
not so instant draft analysis
Worst pick of the first round: Mark Sanchez - #5 overall by the Jets.
The Jets traded the farm to get the quarterback they wanted, but why? Is Sanchez a franchise quarterback? Well, I don't think so. Let's look at some of Mark Sanchez's numbers last year.
He lit up Penn State to tune of 413 yards, 4 TDs and 80% completion. But he stunk up the joint against Arizona State and really didn't play any top defenses. He had a pretty good year last year, but is he a one-year wonder? He's not really a guy they want to start right away and what else do the Jets have at that position? Kellen Clemens, Erik Ainge. These aren't guys that you want holding down the fort for a couple years while Sanchez gets his legs under him.
Second worst pick of the first round: Darrius Heyward-Bey - #7 overall by the Raiders. Good god. Crabtree's on the board and the Raiders go with a guy that had two games last season where he didn't have a catch. It's a classic Raiders pick. Heyward-Bey runs a great 40 time and looks like a good athlete, but his hands and football IQ are questionable. By the way, 40 times are pretty meaningless. It's rare that a player is going to run 40 yards in a straight line in a football game.
The Browns, on the other hand, put on a draft deal clinic, trading down multiple times to pick up more picks and they still got the guy they wanted. The Bengals also made the most of their two picks and got Andre Smith, maybe the top offensive tackle, and Rey Maualuga, maybe the top middle linebacker.
Though really, the truth is this analysis is only a guess. No one really knows who will be a bust and who will have a bust made in Canton one day. It takes a good three to four years to really get a handle on how successful a team's draft was. Look at KC's draft last year. Everyone gave them an A, but Dorsey was invisible last season. So now, that draft doesn't look so great, but there's a chance that he makes an impact this year. If by his third or fourth year, he's still invisible, you can safely say it was a wasted pick and a failed draft. So don't believe the grades you read right now, even from and maybe especially from me. And don't buy people that put up 38 mock drafts. They stlll don't get the picks right.
The Jets traded the farm to get the quarterback they wanted, but why? Is Sanchez a franchise quarterback? Well, I don't think so. Let's look at some of Mark Sanchez's numbers last year.
He lit up Penn State to tune of 413 yards, 4 TDs and 80% completion. But he stunk up the joint against Arizona State and really didn't play any top defenses. He had a pretty good year last year, but is he a one-year wonder? He's not really a guy they want to start right away and what else do the Jets have at that position? Kellen Clemens, Erik Ainge. These aren't guys that you want holding down the fort for a couple years while Sanchez gets his legs under him.
Second worst pick of the first round: Darrius Heyward-Bey - #7 overall by the Raiders. Good god. Crabtree's on the board and the Raiders go with a guy that had two games last season where he didn't have a catch. It's a classic Raiders pick. Heyward-Bey runs a great 40 time and looks like a good athlete, but his hands and football IQ are questionable. By the way, 40 times are pretty meaningless. It's rare that a player is going to run 40 yards in a straight line in a football game.
The Browns, on the other hand, put on a draft deal clinic, trading down multiple times to pick up more picks and they still got the guy they wanted. The Bengals also made the most of their two picks and got Andre Smith, maybe the top offensive tackle, and Rey Maualuga, maybe the top middle linebacker.
Though really, the truth is this analysis is only a guess. No one really knows who will be a bust and who will have a bust made in Canton one day. It takes a good three to four years to really get a handle on how successful a team's draft was. Look at KC's draft last year. Everyone gave them an A, but Dorsey was invisible last season. So now, that draft doesn't look so great, but there's a chance that he makes an impact this year. If by his third or fourth year, he's still invisible, you can safely say it was a wasted pick and a failed draft. So don't believe the grades you read right now, even from and maybe especially from me. And don't buy people that put up 38 mock drafts. They stlll don't get the picks right.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
on the road
In the land of beautiful beaches, perfect weather and two of my favorite sports teams, the lakers and the dodgers, and taking advantage of the blackberry to post while on the road. Wouldn't want to deprieve my loyal readership of 4 of a new post.
In basketball news, adding injury to injury, leon powe is done for the rest of the celtics postseason, however long that might be. Boston is reduced to relying on Mikki Moore for long stretches of play. Ouch. Expect KG to make a miraculous comeback if Boston makes it back home for game 6. He won't stomach sitting out for long and he's already said he's delaying surgery until the offseason.
Minus Powe and KG, Boston's chances of upending Cleveland have slipped to none. The Cavs should sweep Detroit, who, surprise surprise, can't turn it on in the playoffs and are not at all dangerous like some writers suggested. Sub-500 teams don't turn it on and off. Detroit's in fo a long offseason. Sheed has nothing left, AI was a mistake, and Tayshaun's peaked as a third or fourth banana at best. What happened to his defense? Curry can't reach these guys. Maybe firing Flip was a little premature. All he ever did was lead the team to the eastern conference finals twice.
In the west, utah is just outmanned by the lakers. They may take game 3 because of the boost from the home crowd, but even those fans shouldn't expect much out of this team at this point. They need shooters badly.
Welcome to the playoffs, Portland. After getting absolutely crushed by the Rockets at home, Roy and Co. responded nicely in game 2. Yes, Roy is that good. 42 and wow.
Don't look now, but the two hottest teams in baseball are the Marlins and the Dodgers. Makes me wish Joe Angel was still calling Marlins games so we could hear a lot of his signature call, "the Marlins are in the WIN column."
thumbs are getting tired. More thoughts when I'm back home.
In basketball news, adding injury to injury, leon powe is done for the rest of the celtics postseason, however long that might be. Boston is reduced to relying on Mikki Moore for long stretches of play. Ouch. Expect KG to make a miraculous comeback if Boston makes it back home for game 6. He won't stomach sitting out for long and he's already said he's delaying surgery until the offseason.
Minus Powe and KG, Boston's chances of upending Cleveland have slipped to none. The Cavs should sweep Detroit, who, surprise surprise, can't turn it on in the playoffs and are not at all dangerous like some writers suggested. Sub-500 teams don't turn it on and off. Detroit's in fo a long offseason. Sheed has nothing left, AI was a mistake, and Tayshaun's peaked as a third or fourth banana at best. What happened to his defense? Curry can't reach these guys. Maybe firing Flip was a little premature. All he ever did was lead the team to the eastern conference finals twice.
In the west, utah is just outmanned by the lakers. They may take game 3 because of the boost from the home crowd, but even those fans shouldn't expect much out of this team at this point. They need shooters badly.
Welcome to the playoffs, Portland. After getting absolutely crushed by the Rockets at home, Roy and Co. responded nicely in game 2. Yes, Roy is that good. 42 and wow.
Don't look now, but the two hottest teams in baseball are the Marlins and the Dodgers. Makes me wish Joe Angel was still calling Marlins games so we could hear a lot of his signature call, "the Marlins are in the WIN column."
thumbs are getting tired. More thoughts when I'm back home.
Thursday, April 16, 2009
and then he was like BOOM!
Two quick thoughts before I crash for the night:
1. Sunday Night Football won't be as fun this season without Madden calling the games. Oh sure, Collinsworth is a great analyst, but Madden had his own unique way of showing people the game. He gets a lot of shit, and rightfully so sometimes, for lines like "the team that scores more touchdowns will win the game." I mean really, no shit, Sherlock. But he also knew the ins and outs of line play and it's a rare analyst that can describe what's going on in the trenches. And his Maddenisms made boring games a little more fun. Collinsworth already supplanted Madden in the broadcast booth of his own video game in the Xbox and PS3 versions, and that's a damn travesty.
2. KG is out for the first round and likely the entire playoffs. And so there are now only two legitimate contenders in the NBA: Cleveland and LA. The Celts will handle Chicago and maybe Orlando, but definitely not Cleveland. Not without KG.
1. Sunday Night Football won't be as fun this season without Madden calling the games. Oh sure, Collinsworth is a great analyst, but Madden had his own unique way of showing people the game. He gets a lot of shit, and rightfully so sometimes, for lines like "the team that scores more touchdowns will win the game." I mean really, no shit, Sherlock. But he also knew the ins and outs of line play and it's a rare analyst that can describe what's going on in the trenches. And his Maddenisms made boring games a little more fun. Collinsworth already supplanted Madden in the broadcast booth of his own video game in the Xbox and PS3 versions, and that's a damn travesty.
2. KG is out for the first round and likely the entire playoffs. And so there are now only two legitimate contenders in the NBA: Cleveland and LA. The Celts will handle Chicago and maybe Orlando, but definitely not Cleveland. Not without KG.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Playoff time for the NBA
Listening to Frank Deford on NPR as I type this. He's like the Andy Rooney of sports, all full of amazement at trends that people have seen and lived through for the last 15 years. Who knew that a point guard was just as important as a big man in basketball? Or that point guards can create their own shot? Or that, and I hope you're sitting down for this revelation, Magic revolutionized the position. He seems to have no idea that basketball stats have gotten increasingly complex and comprehensive and that yes, we can determine if say Chris Paul has a greater impact on his team than Tyson Chandler. Note to Deford: Paul makes Chandler a good player, so yes, the point guard is more valuable in this case. Seems like he slept through the 90s when, aside from the Duncan-Robinson Spurs in '99 and the Dream-led Rockets in '94 and '95, the decade was dominated by a shooting guard named Michael Jordan. Hell, you could argue that since the late 80s, guards determined who won the NBA championship. Magic and Isiah were the two most important players from '87-'90. I'll give him this: the 2000s have been dominated by big men (Shaq and Duncan have combined for 6 of the titles in the decade and Garnett was arguably the most important Celtic last year), but all that means is that Deford doesn't know basketball pre-2000.
On to more important things.
Well, the 82 game NBA season is finally coming to a close and here's what we think we know about it:
1. The Lakers will be unchallenged in the West and maybe sweep through everyone. They'll only lose a game if they're bored. With Bynum back, the team is at full strength, and this was a group that trampled through the West without much effort even without their 7 foot prodigy.
2. The Cavs and Celtics will meet up in the Eastern Conference Finals. They have to. The season has been building to this matchup.
3. The Cavs will win the East if Garnett isn't 100%.
4. Garnett is not 100%.
5. Orlando needs to dominate a postseason series before people start accepting them as a bonafide championship contender.
6. Seeds 4-8 don't matter in the East. Only Miami has a chance at putting a real scare into one of the top teams. Chicago looks good, but do you really trust Vinny Del Negro to win a playoff series?
7. Seeds 2-8 don't matter in the West. And there could be 6 teams in that bunch with 50 wins. But each one of those teams is so fundamentally flawed (Portland has no playoff experience, the Spurs are old and broken down, the Hornets look out of sorts and Chandler and Peja are hurt, Houston doesn't have a go-to end of game scorer, Utah just looks awful lately, the Mavs are the Mavs and still have to rely on Jason Kidd to defend at least one athletic point guard in the playoffs (Yikes!) and Denver has no front court depth) that it seems unlikely that any of them will get past the Lakers.
8. Out of those flawed teams, I like Portland and the Rockets. Yao and Artest should be enough to get the Rockets out of the first round if they play either the Hornets or the Mavs. Portland can beat just about any of the other teams that aren't the Lakers except maybe the Spurs. Parker's a tough matchup for them and the playoff experience of the Spurs could prove too much for the young Trailblazers.
9. Why is everyone saying that Detroit is dangerous? This has been a common theme in the latter part of the season by sportswriters on every major site. Detroit is terrible and the thought that a sub-500 team can turn it on in the playoffs is absurd. I've watched a little bit of Detroit basketball this year and Rasheed Wallace is done. He's not just hurt, he's spent. He's got nothing in the tank. If he catches fire from 3 point range, he can be dangerous, but he's not willing or able to consistently post up players and defend the post. They count on Kwame Brown for big minutes. I think that should be repeated. They count on KWAME BROWN, YES, THAT KWAME BROWN, the one with BUST branded all over him, for big minutes. Tayshaun isn't that good offensively. He should be. He has all the tools, but for some reason, he just hasn't been that great. This team doesn't have a point guard. They have a bunch of shooting guards with Will Bynum, Rip Hamilton, A.I. (though he's played his last game with the team), Arron Afflalo and Rodney Stuckey. With Chauncey, this team is a 4 seed and is dangerous. They still wouldn't be beating the top teams, but they'd beat anyone from the 5th seed down and they'd take any of the Big 3 in the East to at least 6 games. But they made a bonehead deal for A.I. and now they're the 8th seed and they look like the easiest team to beat in either conference.
10. The Cavs are the best team in the league, but I'm not sure that anyone is afraid of playing them. In the West, there's a scramble to avoid playing the Lakers in the first or second round. I don't see that in the East. I think Boston and Orlando both want Cleveland and Orlando, especially, has manhandled Cleveland in the regular season and so has no reason to fear them. Even Detroit, who aren't a threat to anyone and will probably be swept and blown out by 20 in each game against the Cavs, don't fear them. I suspect that might change once the Cavs sweep Detroit.
On to more important things.
Well, the 82 game NBA season is finally coming to a close and here's what we think we know about it:
1. The Lakers will be unchallenged in the West and maybe sweep through everyone. They'll only lose a game if they're bored. With Bynum back, the team is at full strength, and this was a group that trampled through the West without much effort even without their 7 foot prodigy.
2. The Cavs and Celtics will meet up in the Eastern Conference Finals. They have to. The season has been building to this matchup.
3. The Cavs will win the East if Garnett isn't 100%.
4. Garnett is not 100%.
5. Orlando needs to dominate a postseason series before people start accepting them as a bonafide championship contender.
6. Seeds 4-8 don't matter in the East. Only Miami has a chance at putting a real scare into one of the top teams. Chicago looks good, but do you really trust Vinny Del Negro to win a playoff series?
7. Seeds 2-8 don't matter in the West. And there could be 6 teams in that bunch with 50 wins. But each one of those teams is so fundamentally flawed (Portland has no playoff experience, the Spurs are old and broken down, the Hornets look out of sorts and Chandler and Peja are hurt, Houston doesn't have a go-to end of game scorer, Utah just looks awful lately, the Mavs are the Mavs and still have to rely on Jason Kidd to defend at least one athletic point guard in the playoffs (Yikes!) and Denver has no front court depth) that it seems unlikely that any of them will get past the Lakers.
8. Out of those flawed teams, I like Portland and the Rockets. Yao and Artest should be enough to get the Rockets out of the first round if they play either the Hornets or the Mavs. Portland can beat just about any of the other teams that aren't the Lakers except maybe the Spurs. Parker's a tough matchup for them and the playoff experience of the Spurs could prove too much for the young Trailblazers.
9. Why is everyone saying that Detroit is dangerous? This has been a common theme in the latter part of the season by sportswriters on every major site. Detroit is terrible and the thought that a sub-500 team can turn it on in the playoffs is absurd. I've watched a little bit of Detroit basketball this year and Rasheed Wallace is done. He's not just hurt, he's spent. He's got nothing in the tank. If he catches fire from 3 point range, he can be dangerous, but he's not willing or able to consistently post up players and defend the post. They count on Kwame Brown for big minutes. I think that should be repeated. They count on KWAME BROWN, YES, THAT KWAME BROWN, the one with BUST branded all over him, for big minutes. Tayshaun isn't that good offensively. He should be. He has all the tools, but for some reason, he just hasn't been that great. This team doesn't have a point guard. They have a bunch of shooting guards with Will Bynum, Rip Hamilton, A.I. (though he's played his last game with the team), Arron Afflalo and Rodney Stuckey. With Chauncey, this team is a 4 seed and is dangerous. They still wouldn't be beating the top teams, but they'd beat anyone from the 5th seed down and they'd take any of the Big 3 in the East to at least 6 games. But they made a bonehead deal for A.I. and now they're the 8th seed and they look like the easiest team to beat in either conference.
10. The Cavs are the best team in the league, but I'm not sure that anyone is afraid of playing them. In the West, there's a scramble to avoid playing the Lakers in the first or second round. I don't see that in the East. I think Boston and Orlando both want Cleveland and Orlando, especially, has manhandled Cleveland in the regular season and so has no reason to fear them. Even Detroit, who aren't a threat to anyone and will probably be swept and blown out by 20 in each game against the Cavs, don't fear them. I suspect that might change once the Cavs sweep Detroit.
Friday, April 3, 2009
Chicago's the big winner of the Cutler trade
I know. They traded two first round picks and Kyle Orton, but it's worth it. The Bears knew what they had in Kyle Orton. He can be a decent quarterback with the right talent around him. He can manage a game effectively. He can make two or three big throws a game and hand off to a running back for the rest of it. Essentially, he's what Kerry Collins is now. But Cutler can be spectacular. Cutler is a franchise QB. He threw for more than 4,000 yards last year. He's very good. The Bears are now set at the quarterback position for the next 10 years. I think any team would gladly give up a decent talent and two 1st round picks to be set at the most important position in the game for the next decade.
As for the Broncos, well, you never ever trade a franchise quarterback, especially one that's only 25 years old. They'll regret this for years. Kyle Orton might be good enough for them, but they'll always wonder what if. I think there's enough around Orton in Denver to make him effective. Their offensive line is solid. They've got good receivers in Eddie Royal and Brandon Marshall. They have a stable of decent running backs. They should be able to be effective offensively. But, think of how good they would be with a great quarterback. As it is, the Broncos don't look like they're challenging the Chargers for the division any time soon.
Side note on the Chargers: They went 8-8, snuck into the playoffs in the last week of the regular season, and have done absolutely nothing to improve the team in the offseason. How can they be satisfied with an 8-8 team? Oh right, Norv's the coach. They better watch out. The cellar dwellers of the AFC West have both gotten better. Oakland will continue to get better as JaMarcus Russell improves. They've got a dynamic backfield with Michael Bush, Darren McFadden and Justin Fargas. Their receivers improved late in the year and they're in position to draft a special talent like Michael Crabtree. Kansas City traded for a real quarterback. No offense to Tyler Thigpen, who looked good in some games last year, but Matt Castle was great last year and should be good for KC. They kept Tony Gonzalez. Dwayne Bowe should be even better with a real QB throwing to him. And the defense has to get better with all the youth they have there. In fact, had they not stupidly traded Jared Allen last year (double-digit sack machine and he was only 26 at the time), this team would look like a sleeper contender.
As for the Broncos, well, you never ever trade a franchise quarterback, especially one that's only 25 years old. They'll regret this for years. Kyle Orton might be good enough for them, but they'll always wonder what if. I think there's enough around Orton in Denver to make him effective. Their offensive line is solid. They've got good receivers in Eddie Royal and Brandon Marshall. They have a stable of decent running backs. They should be able to be effective offensively. But, think of how good they would be with a great quarterback. As it is, the Broncos don't look like they're challenging the Chargers for the division any time soon.
Side note on the Chargers: They went 8-8, snuck into the playoffs in the last week of the regular season, and have done absolutely nothing to improve the team in the offseason. How can they be satisfied with an 8-8 team? Oh right, Norv's the coach. They better watch out. The cellar dwellers of the AFC West have both gotten better. Oakland will continue to get better as JaMarcus Russell improves. They've got a dynamic backfield with Michael Bush, Darren McFadden and Justin Fargas. Their receivers improved late in the year and they're in position to draft a special talent like Michael Crabtree. Kansas City traded for a real quarterback. No offense to Tyler Thigpen, who looked good in some games last year, but Matt Castle was great last year and should be good for KC. They kept Tony Gonzalez. Dwayne Bowe should be even better with a real QB throwing to him. And the defense has to get better with all the youth they have there. In fact, had they not stupidly traded Jared Allen last year (double-digit sack machine and he was only 26 at the time), this team would look like a sleeper contender.
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Instant Karma?
The Orlando Magic lost to the surging, but lowly Toronto Raptors tonight, 99-95. The home loss hurts Orlando because they're competing with the Celtics for the number two seed in the Eastern Conference, and they have now fallen percentage points behind Boston. But should they have seen this loss coming?
From the AP by way of ESPN.com: In an April Fool's joke that left everyone but the contestant laughing, the Magic made a fan think he was shooting a half-court shot for $100,000 at halftime. The fan was blindfolded, and the crowd was told beforehand to cheer as if he made the shot. The young contestant, named Dan, missed badly but believed he won and danced around the court in a frenzy. Before being told it was a joke and showed the replay he said, "I just got laid off at work." He was given a 100 Grand Bar of candy instead but was not laughing.
Poor taste, Orlando Magic.
From the AP by way of ESPN.com: In an April Fool's joke that left everyone but the contestant laughing, the Magic made a fan think he was shooting a half-court shot for $100,000 at halftime. The fan was blindfolded, and the crowd was told beforehand to cheer as if he made the shot. The young contestant, named Dan, missed badly but believed he won and danced around the court in a frenzy. Before being told it was a joke and showed the replay he said, "I just got laid off at work." He was given a 100 Grand Bar of candy instead but was not laughing.
Poor taste, Orlando Magic.
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