The Idiot Fan

it's least wonderful time of the year

2010-07-27T04:16:00.000-07:00

let's recap:

college football? nope
NFL? nope
World Cup futbol? nope
BPL? nope
NBA? nope
MLB? yep

the lebron timeline

2010-07-24T08:33:00.001-07:00

Cavs-Celtics, Game 1 - Mo dunks, Cleveland goes ballistic, LeBron turns it on and they win 101-93.

Cavs-Celtics, Game 2 - Cleveland loses, LeBron is unnaturally very calm about this. Mike Brown is not.

Cavs-Celtics, Game 3 - In Boston, LeBron destroys the Celtics, showing no effects of an elbow injury in putting up 38/8/7/2

Cavs-Celtics, Game 4 - See Game 2 comment

Cavs-Celtics, Game 5 - LeBron's last game in Cleveland. He's lethargic, inaccurate, disinterested. "I spoil a lot of people with my play." He gets booed. Writers around the country wonder what's wrong with LeBron. Is the mysterious elbow injury? LeBron seems not to care.

Cavs-Celtics, Game 6 - Somehow a LeBron triple double seems uninspired. He again doesn't seem to care. He rips the Cleveland jersey off his back heading into the locker room.

Fast forward to the offseason. We never hear anything about the elbow injury. LeBron strings along Cleveland and every other team with cap space, though honestly, the Clippers should have known better. Cleveland management and his teammates (the same ones he was dancing with and high-fiving before every regular season game) find out that LeBron is not coming back for the first time during his televised decision on ESPN. Times LeBron mentions his supposed good friends during the ESPN program: 0

So what to draw from all this? I think it's becoming increasingly clear that LeBron quit on his team some time after Game 3. And his decision was made some time around that time too.

the Raiders are a .500 team and other bold predictions

2010-07-22T04:24:00.000-07:00

Dear Jonathan,

The Miami Dolphins are not going to win the Super Bowl this year. Chad Henne is a year away at least. For your sake, I hope I eat my words.

Sincerely,

A fan of a team that always loses

And on to my bold and not so bold predictions for the NFL season. Forecasting sports is a lot like forecasting the weather. Everyone is wrong but tries anyway. And like in both, trust your eyes and not the bull.

1. Raiders are a .500 team this year. They would have been last year if the quarterback wasn't the biggest bust in the history of sports (Ryan Leaf is now #2 on this list, mostly because JaMarcus is also the fattest bust in the history of sports). Campbell is decent. The O-Line is improved. Bush will run for close to 1,000 yards. Run DMC will show up this year and not in a cast. And I think the Raiders actually have a dangerous WR corp. DHB will be better. He's about 3,000% better in camp this year than he was all of last year. Louis Murphy is legit. Shit, I'm talking myself into this team. Super Bowl or bust? An idiot can dream.

2. The Dolphins are a playoff team. Duh. The entire AFC East is a playoff team except for Buffalo, who is lousy.

3. That said, the Jets will not make the playoffs. You can see this coming, right? Too many big names. Too many egos. They got worse at RB. They are the favorites. There's no chip on their shoulders. Unless Sanchez makes the leap. Then all bets are off.

4. Or maybe the Pats won't make the playoffs? Nah. Here's what I like about the Patriots: Nothing at all. I hate this team so much. But if you were a Pats fan (and God help you if you are, you root for a douchebag QB), this is what I would like about this team: no one is talking about them. All the attention is on the Dolphins and the Jets and even on how bad the Bills will be and how stupid it was to hire Chan Gailey. Meanwhile, Belichick is secretly videotaping every team right now so he'll know all their plays. Or he's quietly scheming revenge on the rest of the league for the embarrassment his team suffered in the playoffs last year.

5. These teams will be better: Tennessee, Washington (can't get worse), Miami, Oakland (can't get worse), Detroit (ditto), Denver, NJ Giants

6. These teams will be worse: Jacksonville (this team screams 5-11 to me), Philly, Buffalo (Chan Gailey? Really?), Minnesota (slightly, they were really good last year, but anyone really trust Childress? anyone?), Arizona

7. These teams are who we think they are: Indy, San Diego, Green Bay, New Orleans, St. Louis (sad)

fucking heat

2010-07-20T04:44:00.001-07:00

I'm coming around to accepting that this team will be nigh unbeatable this year. I think the supporting cast is weak outside of Mike Miller, but it probably doesn't matter with Wade and LeBron. I hate this team so much, but they'll be fun to watch.

NCAA Tournament rules

2010-03-18T19:17:00.001-07:00

1. Big East is always way overrated. I always forget this.
2. Independently of that, Notre Dame is always overrated.
3. Except for one or two teams, the SEC sucks at basketball.

most perfect fit ever in the nfl

2010-03-13T18:51:00.000-08:00

Jake Delhomme has signed with the Cleveland Browns, bringing us the perfect marriage between a quarterback that really sucks and a franchise that really, really sucks. Of all the things I've seen in the past few months, this is the one thing that has inspired me to post.

So while I'm in the posting mood, some odds and ends of things that have transpired.

1. The Marlins won't win the World Series. There's my response to you, Jesse. They just won't. I don't know how to explain it, but simple mathematical odds are not on their side. They were something like the 6th best team in the NL last year and the top teams didn't get that much worse, though the Giants stink and could slip and the Rockies were a fluke. But the Marlins aren't better than the Dodgers or Phillies and they certainly aren't better than the top teams in the AL. Comment and flame away. Don't disappoint me.

2. The Lakers have problems. These will be fixed come playoff time. Ron Artest is a dumb offensive player. Kobe will either kill him or fix him by the playoffs. Gasol is soft again. Phil will fix this again.

3. The Celtics have problems. These can't be fixed. They are old. Ray Allen seems to be done, which is shocking because he was very much not done earlier this year. KG is too, but that's more an injury thing. Pierce is also just being beat up by injuries. They look like they're set up for a first round upset loss. Of course, this means they will storm their way through the playoffs.

4. LeBron James and the Cavs - I'm still not convinced. Show me you can beat Orlando in the playoffs.

5. Orlando - should've kept Hedo. Vince sucks. Everyone knew this but Orlando apparently.

6. I think the Raiders should draft the slowest guy in the 40 just to balance things out. The fastest guys always seem to bust, so maybe the opposite way is the right way.

7. Suh is the best player in the draft. Enough of this nonsense about Gerald McCoy possibly being better. Any idiot (me) with eyes (I have those too) who watched college football can see that Suh is just better than anyone. It's not even close. This is just fake draft drama.

8. The Rams will stupidly draft neither of those guys and take Sam Bradford, who I never thought would be a great NFL QB.

9. Here's how I would scout a player (in either the NBA or the NFL). I would just watch 4th quarters. I would focus on 4th quarters in tight games. I would look at film of the guy on the sideline as well. If he comes up big late in big games, I want him. If he doesn't, but throws a good spiral or puts up impressive stats, I don't want him. It's really that simple. And yet, every year, NBA/NFL teams spend tons of money to fuck this up. Forget about the combine.

Marlins homerism

2010-02-27T12:40:00.000-08:00

I claim minimal responsibility for this:

From the mouth of the biggest Marlins homer ever, ladies and gentlefolk, Mr. Jesse Bryan.

Greetings fish fan(s),

Beisbol is here!!!!!! Thank goodness as these other silly sports have become a real bore. Seriously, how can you gauge how good any team is without playing AT LEAST 150 games. To commence my inaugural post of the 2010, let me give you the reasons why the Florida Marlins get (and most likely win) to the World Series this year in no particular order.

They retained pretty much everyone on a very potent offense. Losing Nick Johnson will definitely hurt (and the Yankees got a steal on him), but maybin should fill in nicely in the #2 hole. They won 87 games last year with essentially the same team which was a young one. They are now a year older. Tough luck NL East.

Emilio Bonifacio is no longer leading off. We had to endure over 80 games of his bald head on our screens last year and inefficient hardly describes his contribution. I still don’t trust him as even a utility man (we’ll miss you amezega), but that’s better than being the starting lineup.

Cameron Maybin will have a breakout season and will be in the rookie of the year hunt. After a disappointing start in 2009, Maybin killed it in AA and had a nice return to the bigs at the end of the season. I expect him to tear it up this year in the #2 spot. Coghlan, Maybin, Hanely is a pretty nasty 1-2-3.

Jorge Cantu’s wrist is completely healed. He still hit .290 with 100 rbis last year with the pain lingering, but with his wrist healed, expect those HR numbers to return to the 25-30 range.

The best 1-2 punch the game: Josh Johnson (yay for signing him) and Ricky Nolasco (he will get a multi-year contract if he pitches how he should).

A fine group of pitchers competing for the 3-5 spots with West, Volstad, Miller, Sanchez, Vandenhurk, Penn. I have my money on Sanchez, Volstad and West filling out the rotation. From what I hear, Sanchez is as healthy as he’s been since his rookie season (dropped 15 pounds and worked hard on leg strength) after the all star break last year he had a 2.80 ERA or so. Volstad needs to return to 2009 form and ASAP. West was called up too early, but showed he already has the stuff to be dominant.

Dan Uggla: I’m pretty excited they fish kept Uggla. I watched about 70-80 games last year, and I must say Uggla really got the shaft on some hard hit balls. His walks were a career high last year and his K’s a career low. I think he has a monster year hitting behind

Cantu.

Brett Carroll is the best outfielder in the MLB.

A cornucopia of relievers competing for roster spots including Derrick Turnbow and Jose Veras.

Finally, my marlins visor. Fate shined brightly upon me the other day in a thrift store where I found a near meant Marlins visor that I will proudly where inside and outside. Go fish!

Because it's playoff season

2010-01-22T04:53:00.000-08:00

Here it is in all its glory:

Brad Childress continues to hold back the Vikings

2009-12-23T22:30:00.001-08:00

Before the Vikings lackluster effort against Carolina, most sportswriters and analysts had this team pegged as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. What's not to like? Good QB playing out of his mind, a top RB, a great O-line, an even better D-line, quality linebackers and a good secondary. Oh right, the coach is a moron. We've known this for a while now, but I think some people got wrapped up in how good the talent is in Minnesota that we forgot that the coach will find a way to ruin this. And he will. Mark my words. Brad Childress will cost this team a playoff game. Childress coaches not to lose; all of his games seem to be decided by a field goal. That's no way to coach.

Then there's this gem courtesy of ESPN.com:
Childress said that a quarterback who makes “five checks in a game or six checks in a game” has gone overboard. He added: “Typically the idea with a quarterback in this offense, you’re not going to the line of scrimmage looking to change the play. Because then you end up seeing ghosts.”

Um, you know Brad, Peyton Manning makes 5 or 6 checks in a drive and his team is undefeated. Experienced QBs should be allowed to call their own plays and audible. It's one of the main advantages to having a seasoned QB. Peyton Manning is great partially because he is his own offensive coordinator. Gregg Easterbrook on ESPN.com goes into this a bit more in his TMQ column. If you want to see what happens when a control-freak coach handcuffs a great veteran QB, pop in tapes of mid to late 90s Dolphins games to see how mediocre Dan Marino was under Jimmy Johnson.

Brad will ruin this team. It was a big mistake to give this guy a contract extension. What does that team do after this year when Favre retires again and they're left with Tavares Jackson and Sage Rosenfels as their QBs? I guess no worries, because Brad will call the plays, make the checks, study the film and not see any ghosts out there.

mel kiper is an idiot and kobe is the best player in the NBA

2009-12-23T20:18:00.000-08:00

Mel Kiper doesn't watch football. I'm convinced. His draft grades are always a mess. He's a terrible writer. I'm no great shakes, but then again, I'm not getting paid to write for ESPN Insider. His latest column has him revisiting his draft grades. He has the gall to say that the Dolphins rookie CBs, who are starters for a team competing for the playoffs, are good players with low ceilings. Low ceilings? Really, Mel Kiper? If starting and showing flashes of shutdown dominance are signs of a low ceiling, then I wonder if there's any player in the NFL with a high ceiling. My main problem with all of these types of articles, and really the basis of Kiper's existence as a sports analyst, is that you can't tell if a player will be good or not in the first year. You need a good three years to evaluate a player. Look at someone like Cadillac Williams or even better Michael Clayton. These guys were great their first year, and I'm sure Kiper was raving about how good the Bucs were at drafting those years. But then you look at the rest of their careers and it's been all downhill. Cadillac peaked about three games into his NFL career and hasn't averaged more than 4 yards per carry since his rookie year. Clayton has been even worse. He was a rising star when he caught 80 passes for 1,193 yards. Since then, he's caught 139 passes for 1717 yards over the course of 5 seasons. This year, he's caught 14 passes for 204 yards. He's put up a goose-egg 3 times this year. Clearly, he's a bust. But you wouldn't have known that after his first year.

In other news, Kobe is the best NBA player today. Sorry, LeBron James, but show me a ring and you'll get the top spot. Kobe is the guy every other NBA player looks up to now. The scary thing is that Kobe is better this year than last year. This is a guy that scores 40 points with a torn tendon in his index finger. He added at least 4 or 5 post moves this offseason to bring his repertoire up to something like 5,016. If you watch LeBron, you'll realize quickly he's the most talented NBA player, but he hasn't yet put it together. He's getting there, but I'm a bit disappointed that we're not see LeBron destroy people in the post more often. I know, I know: Kobe has the advantage of playing on a better team. The Cavs are very mediocre without their star. Shaq is 35 pounds overweight, Mo Williams is a third banana playing a second banana's role, Anthony Parker's a bench player playing a starter and the Big Z looks and moves like he's 40. But I haven't seen the King take a stranglehold of this team and impose his will on these guys.

quick thoughts (it's been a long time coming)

2009-11-16T19:25:00.000-08:00

A quick note about my NFL forecast. I, like everyone else who tries to predict the NFL season, was wrong about most things. That would be why I'm the Idiot Fan and not just the Fan.

1. I really like the MNF announcing team. I might be the only one in the world.
2. Going for it on 4th and 2 is playing the percentages. The average NFL play is something like 4.5 yards and most 3rd and 2 and 4th and 2 conversions are successful, especially when you have an offense like the Patriots.
3. However, jesus, what balls on Belicheck. Wow. Also, if you're going to go for it, don't do it with a rinky dink pass to a running back. Play action deep to Moss or to Welker on a crossing route.
4. Peyton is the best QB in the league right now. Better than Brees.
5. It's a toss-up. Brady Quinn, Derek Anderson or Jamarcus Russell, who's worse? I say Russell, but he's at least more talented than Derek Anderson.
6. Speaking of wasted talent, Darius Heyward-Bey and his hands of stone. But at least he's fast, oy vey!
7. The Giants will go on a run. Just a hunch.
8. Andy Reid is the white Art Shell when it comes to clock mismanagement.
9. It should be noted: Andy Reid has been outcoached by Wade Phillips and Norv Turner in consecutive weeks. Wade Phillips and Norv Turner!
10. The Bengals are for real. Time for everyone to acknowledge it. They swept the Ravens and the Steelers and have one more game against the Browns. This team could have homefield advantage through the playoffs.

the Giant-Size NFL preview part 4 of a million

2009-08-29T19:59:00.000-07:00

And another.

AFC West

1. San Diego - A Norv Turner coached team might make the Super Bowl. The Chargers are loaded on both sides of the ball this year, and yet, they're going to give away some games because Norv is not a good coach in the fourth quarter. But they'll cruise to win this division on talent alone. They're the cream of this division's crap and will be that way for the foreseeable future.
Record: 11-5 and a deep playoff run.

2. Oakland Raiders - Well, who else do you want to put here? The Chiefs have a terrible offensive line and a defense that is equal parts old and green. The kids there are lousy (looking at you, Glenn Dorsey), and the vets don't have much in the tank. And Denver is a mess. So that leaves us with the Raiders, a team that just got obliterated 45-7 by the Saints in the preseason. A team with a head coach who might be arrested at some point in the season. I think they have enough talent on offense to be respectable, although their running game really hasn't shown up so far in the preseason. The defense is lousy. Really bad. It's always pretty bad. They have the best corner in football but the defensive line is worthless. The linebackers are decent in coverage but because the line is trash, they don't get any breaks against the run.
Record: Oh God, do I have to? Optimistically, 7-9. Pessimistically, 5-11. And what does that say about how I feel about the rest of this division? Well read on, reader.

3. Kansas City Chiefs - New QB, new GM, new head coach. Same crappy defense. Replacing Herm as the coach is worth a win or two by itself. Their offensive line is really lousy though, and I'm not sure Cassel is going to look half as good in KC as he did in New England. On the upside, the return of Larry Johnson. I'm grasping at straws here.
Record: 5-11. And that's an improvement. Oy vey!

4. Denver Broncos - This team is a mess. They're switching to a 3-4 defense, which fits no one on the team currently. Kyle Orton is replacing Jay Cutler. Let's write that again for emphasis. Kyle Orton is replacing Jay Cutler! And their best receiver has decided to quit on the team before the season starts. On the upside, Eddie Royal will put up good fantasy football numbers.
Record: 4-12, unless they start Chris Simms ahead of Orton. Then it turns into 6-10. A little better, eh?

The Giant-Size NFL preview part 3 of a million

2009-08-29T18:03:00.000-07:00

These intros keep getting shorter.

AFC South

1. Indianapolis Colts - This team is the model of consistency. Pencil them in for 12 wins a year. Peyton looks comfortable with his wideouts and the change in defensive philosophy might do this team some good. They were too passive in the Cover 2 the last couple years. This is one of 4 or 5 legitimate Super Bowl contenders in the AFC.
Record: 12-4 and a return to the AFC championship game.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars - Bounce-back year from the Jags. This is another team that I have a hard time getting a read on, but I know this: David Garrard is actually a very good QB and MJD is a top 3 running back. The offensive line should be much improved and the team should have a giant chip on their shoulder after last year's performance. This is a make or break year for Del Rio. He needs to get his team into the playoffs or he won't be coaching this team next season.
Record: 10-6 and a wildcard spot. I've changed my mind about this team roughly 55 times during the preseason. They could just as easily go 6-10 and I wouldn't be surprised.

3. Houston Texans - Everyone is high on them. They're a popular sleeper pick for the playoffs, which means they won't make it. Look at past examples of popular sleeper playoff/Super Bowl teams:
2008 Cleveland Browns - didn't come close
2007 - New Orleans Saints - didn't make the playoffs
2006 - Carolina Panthers/Miami Dolphins - didn't make the playoffs
2005 - Minnesota Vikings - Love boat scandal, Culpepper's knee blows up, Culpepper has worst year ever, and the Vikes miss the playoffs

So you see the trend here. Houston has a good offense run by a fragile QB. Their defense is getting better and I can't believe that Charlie Casserly has been vindicated in picking Mario Williams over Reggie Bush, but it was the right pick.
Record: 8-8 again.

4. Tennessee Titans - And then they came crashing down. This year, Kerry Collins will remember he is Kerry Collins, the defense will drop off without Haynesworth, and who's that we see in the distance? Why, it's the return of Vince Young, coming back as the starting quarterback in December when the games will be meaningless for this team. Here's what you need to know. They overachieved a lot last year. They think they've addressed weakness at the WR position by adding a rookie and Nate Washington, the Steelers' third option at the position. Nate fuckin' Washington. When he's your number one, just forget about throwing the ball.
Record: 6-10. Really.

The Giant-Size NFL preview part 2 of a million

2009-08-29T17:49:00.000-07:00

Here we are again. You, potentially reading this blog. Me, writing nonsense about sports that I pretend to know about. Shall we get to it then?

AFC North

1. Pittsburgh Steelers - Feels like it's going to be a bit of a letdown year for the Steelers. I don't know why and don't have solid evidence to back it up, but Big Ben's legal issues are an unnecessary distraction and I'm not sure this team is particularly hungry.
Record: 11-5 and a quick playoff exit.

2. Baltimore Ravens - Yes, they lost some talent on the defense. Yes, they lost Rob Ryan, their talented defensive coordinator. Yes, their receivers aren't great. But Flacco is making the leap this year. He's the first real QB that the Ravens have ever had. The defense still has Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, and Nagata might be the best defensive tackle in the league. Wait, why do I have them at number 2 in this division? I do have to give the defending champs a little respect.
Record: 11-5 and a nice playoff run as a wildcard team.

3. Cincinnati Bengals - The return of the high-powered Bengals offense is not enough to offset the return of the matador Bengals defense. I won't believe in their defense until I see some results on the field during actual games that count.
Record: 8-8, but they'll be sniffing the wildcard until the end of the year.

4. Cleveland Browns - Not good. How was this team talked about as a Super Bowl contender last year? Derek Anderson as a Super Bowl QB? Come on. Brady Quinn is a small improvement, but this team has already fallen apart and we're not yet to the games that count.
Record: 3-13, just an ugly year for this team. They seemed to have already tuned out Eric Mangini. Has a team ever quit on a new head coach in the preseason?

The Giant-Size NFL preview part 1 of a million

2009-08-27T18:55:00.000-07:00

I keep saying this: Thank God for football season. It was way too long. Even the crappy preseason has been enough to tide me over until mid-September. We're getting a decent idea of what to expect from teams, even though preseason won/loss records are meaningless and not a good indicator of regular season success (see 2008 Detroit Lions and 2006 Oakland Raiders). But you can still tell a bit about a team by their training camp and the first quarters of preseason games. Again, the Raiders were terrible on offense the past few years in camp and the opening quarters and sure enough, they were equally terrible on offense during the regular season. So without further ado,

Your 2009 NFL season predictions that you can take to the bank (and lose a lot of money on, much like a bank these days, actually):

AFC East
1. The Patriots - Ugh. I hate this team, but they look so damn good. Robo-Brady may wreak havoc, they have arguably the best receiving corp in the league (though they're getting a little old between Moss and Galloway), the defense should be 100 times better and they have something to prove. Plus, they still have the best head coach in the league. Shit, this team could go 14-2 this year. A couple things worry me: their running backs are ordinary (I know, it didn't matter when they went 16-0) and their offensive line is not fantastic. They were manhandled by the Bengals in a preseason game. Manhandled by the Bengals. Thought I should repeat that because it just seems so shocking. Still, their linebackers are much improved, their defensive line is always top-notch, the corners are well, the Pats always get by with rubbish corners.
Record: 13-3

2. Miami Dolphins - Miami has the Dolphins, the greatest football team. Well not this year. Plus, the stupid team remixed the song. Bad karma potential there. I like the Dolphins, I really do. They overachieved big time last year, but they're well-coached and they have a decent QB in Pennington. Plus, Pennington actually knows the playbook this year. He was the most accurate QB in the league last year and he didn't know the playbook. Pretty amazing actually. Ted Ginn Jr. is putting it together and looks like a legit number one receiver. They have depth at that position this year too. I like Fasano as their tight end. The defense looks to be improved, though I'm not completely sold the Gibril Wilson/Yeremiah Bell combo at safety yet.
Record: 9-7. Sorry, Dolfans, your team is good, not great.

3. The Buffalo Bills - The TO experiment. That's what this season boils down to. Here's what TO can't cover up:
a. Their running back is crazy/unreliable
b. Their defense can be pushed around
c. Their head coach is one of the worst game managers in the league.
It's the last one that will kill them this year. I posted about this previously.
Record: 7-9 (again!). It could blow up completely and they end up being 5-11. I don't see a winning record for them.

4. The J-E-T-S - I like Rex Ryan. I kind of like the defense. I think Mark Sanchez will be a good QB, just not this year. They get by on sheer guts and bravado this year. Watch out for next year though. This team will make a major leap in 2010.
Record: 6-10.

The Mistake by the Lake (or how Brett Favre is a big mistake)

2009-08-21T04:31:00.000-07:00

Not that the Browns are looking so hot nowadays, but the mistake by the lake I'm referring to involves Minnesota and not the city that bears the unfortunate nickname. Brett Favre is back. It makes the Vikings more interesting, but does it really make them that much better?

If you watch ESPN, the obvious answer seems to yes, of course, idiot, But look at it this way:

Does Brett Favre make Minnesota a Super Bowl contender? No. Their secondary still isn't great, their head coach is still a cross between a high school coach and a porn star, and their quarterback still has a penchant for throwing costly interceptions.

Is Brett Favre the best quarterback in the NFC North? Again, no. He's third behind Cutler, who is like a younger Favre in a lot of ways, and Aaron Rodgers.

Is it a good idea to sign a 39 year old quarterback after training camp? No. He has no chemistry with his receivers, offensive line, coaches and running backs. His arrival means Sage Rosenfels and Tavaris Jackson are thrown under the bus. He doesn't fully know the playbook. All of this means that he's going to be more inclined to wing it during the season, and with Favre, that can be a dangerous proposition. He's the all-time leader in interceptions for a reason.

How motivated will Favre be, especially if he loses to the Packers twice this season? This is the hardest question to answer. Some people think his return is motivated by revenge and if he loses out on that, will he care about the rest of the season? I have no idea.

Is Brett Favre worth $12 million for one year? No. The Vikings paid $12 million for a one-year traveling circus. They paid $12 million to give Brad Childress one last chance to prove he's a competent NFL head coach. The last head coach that pinned his hopes to Favre ended up fired and exiled to coach in Cleveland. By some accounts last year, Brett was a primadonna in the locker room.

Is 39 year old Brett Favre $11 million better than 39 year old Jeff Garcia? No. Call me crazy, but I would rather have Garcia. He's well-versed in the West Coast offense and he takes care of the football. He doesn't have the arm strength of Favre, but he's a lot less likely to throw stupid interceptions. In his last four years, Favre has had one really good one and three mediocre to bad ones. We forget this because the Brett Favre hype machine is always on during the season, but if he were anyone else, he would have been replaced before he had the chance to have that one good year in 2007. Garcia has had three pretty good years out of the last four years, and his one bad year in that period came with the Detroit Lions, so that's hardly fair to hold that against him. And here's the kicker: Garcia makes $1 million this year as a backup. The Vikings could have had him if they went after him early in the offseason. He was a good fit for their offense.

I see the Vikings getting a nice 9-7 season out of the Favre experiment. Their ceiling is really 10-6, and there's a good chance they finish under .500 and get Childress fired.

Ok, one more NBA post and then for real, it's all football all the time

2009-08-18T04:11:00.000-07:00

A few NBA related thoughts that I never got out:

1. Orlando blew it by not resigning Turkoglu and instead using the same amount of money on Brandon Bass and Marcin Gortat. That's just insane. Turkoglu was their second best player last year and their clutch guy, and as much as I don't like the way he plays, I can admit that he was integral to their team. With him, they had three 6'10" or taller guys in the starting lineup. The Magic could have trotted out a starting lineup of Jameer Nelson, Vince Carter, Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis and Dwight Howard. Would that have been the best starting five in the league? You could argue that San Antonio, the Lakers or Boston could match that, but that's a pretty damn good lineup. I originally thought they were trying to save money by not resigning Turkoglu, but then they went ahead and matched Dallas' stupid offer to Gortat (five years/$34 million for a backup center averaging 12 minutes a game). Ummm..Why? He would never, ever push Dwight Howard for playing time. Let Dallas sign their newest Erick Dampier. Then they went ahead and gave stupid money to Brandon Bass (4 years/$18 million). I know, I know, he's young, he's got some talent, the price wasn't that high. But for the same price of these two, they could have kept Turkoglu, who's better than both of them combined.

2. Lakers resigned Odom and all is right in the world. Their lineup is scary good, especially if Bynum can improve.

3. Good God, the Celtics have signed every big man in the world. But they pissed off Rondo, and no one knows if he'll be in the right mindset to start the season. But I like signing Sheed, even if he has nothing left in the tank. Getting Big Baby back was another great deal. I like the Shelden Williams signing. They are very, very deep in the frontcourt.

the vick thing

2009-08-17T03:53:00.000-07:00

As most of you know, the Eagles signed Michael Vick to be their backup quarterback. I'm not sure why. He's not the missing piece of the puzzle for the Eagles. The Eagles have been missing one piece for a number of years, and every year, whether it's through the draft or free agency, they fail to address it. The Eagles need a power running back, someone with size who can get tough yards and fight through tackles. I said the same thing last year. They suck near the goal line because they don't have a good fullback or big running back who can convert third and goal or fourth and goal.

How does Vick address this? He doesn't. They can put him in as a Wildcat quarterback near the goal line to give defenses something else to think about, but do they really want to be taking out Donovan McNabb in scoring situations. He's their best player. The other thing with Vick is all the media he drags behind him. Is a backup quarterback worth a season-long media circus?

Football is back

2009-08-16T08:14:00.001-07:00

Thank God. It's been too long. I was starting to give you up for the NBA, following that offseason with a keen interest, but I can put that aside now. It's football season and I can start posting about a sport people actually care about now. Hard to get a true read on teams in the preseason, but there are some truths to be had, such as:

Truth #1 - Cleveland will be lousy. They were pretty bad against a 3-4 defense they should be seeing everyday in practice. Actually, this was against a Packers team transitioning to the 3-4 with guys learning new positions and with their top two corners sitting out. Yikes! On the road to another 4-10 season. Good luck, Mangenius.

Truth #2 - ESPN will only care about the following three players (in order): Brett Favre, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning. And they're starting to slip on Peyton. They only talk about Brett Favre, despite him being a washed-up retired has-been, and Tom Brady, who they gushed about and casually ignored the pick he threw in the preseason game. I would give up ESPN if they didn't have the rights to EVERY sport. That's probably a really bad thing, right? Too much power in one place and that place is too concerned with promoting itself at every turn. Deadspin has a good ESPN catchphrase analysis bit that they do every so often.

Truth #3 - Denver won't be good this year. Orton has looked like crap all throughout training camp and now the preseason. Their defense is a combined 1,000 years old, the secondary is really old especially, Jarvis Moss sucks at DE/OLB, they don't have a nose tackle and they're switching to a 3-4 defense. And they traded arguably the best young QB in the league this offseason and got back Kyle Orton. And their best receiver, Brandon Marshall, doesn't seem to give a shit about playing for the Broncos. Seems like Josh McDaniels might be a wee bit in over his head. If this was the Raiders, ESPN would be making a ton of cracks about all this, but they are strangely silent about Denver's slow swirl down the train.

More Marlins than you can shake a stick at

2009-08-16T08:12:00.001-07:00

Editor's Note: This post is a few days old, and I was slow to put it up, perhaps because the writer trashes my Marlins analysis in the opening sentence of the post. Just saying... Anywho, here's another post from one of only 5 real Marlins fans on the planet, ladies and gentlefolk, Mr. Jesse Bryan:

--------
Inspired by Jason's ESPNesque "coverage" of the marlins in his last
post (seriously "The Marlins are young and so very up and down" is all
you can muster?!?!), I've decided it's about darn time for a fish
post.

The season thus far: Once again the team with the lowest payroll is in
playoff contention. To elaborate Jason's statement, yes this has been
very up and down year with more ups than downs. After a psychedelic
11-1 start, the fish fumbled in a pretty dramatic way losing a whole
bunch of games and not winning nearly as many. I first attributed this
fumbling to the vile new namesake of Joe Robbie stadium, "Landshark
Stadium." Being associated with Jimmy Buffet is never good for
business and the fish obviously went into a deep depression when this
change occurred. I'm surprised no one committed suicide because I
almost did after puking no less than 15 times. However, the fish
battled back and have put themselves back in contention. Then with
things heating up, they go and get swept by the nationals (after
series wins against the Dodgers (take that Jason), Cubs and Braves).
"Boo hoo" I thought and also exclaimed out loud. Next thing I know,
they sweep the Phillies and are right back in. Baseball.

So here we are with a huge series with the wild card leading Rockies.
Last August did the fish in. Except for the Nationals sweep, this
August has been excellent. The offense is scorching the ball like I've
never seen before from a marlins team. Now let's take a peak and what
has occurred this year:

Starting pitching: Except for JJ, completely inconsistent. What was
supposed to be the fishies great strength has been a battle all year.
Nolasco started off with a 9+ era only to get sent down and come back
and return to the Nolasco of last year. They had to call up Sean West
early due to injuries/demotions and he has done a very serviceable
job. Same with Vanderhurk. Sanchez got injured again, but he has not
been so hot. He's pitched some nice starts in the minors and should be
called up soon and the fish will need him to pitch well of they're to
make a push. If the fish starting pitching can someone stabilize (the
talent is there), then they could really go on a tear with bats
hitting like they are.

Bullpen: I got to give high marks to the pen although Fredi's
management of them has been quite bad at times. What was perceived to
be a huge weakness has been excellent for the toddlers in teal. Brian
Sanches, Kiko Calero, Dan Meyer, Burke Badenhop, Brian Donnelly and
Leo Nunez have done a great job. Lindstrom has not been so effective
and I cringe at him closing again. The pen has pitched a whole bunch
of innings, which means the starters really need to starting rattling
off the quality starts.

Bats: The fish started hot, then went ice cold. Uggla was having a
horrible year with his average below .200 at one point. Bonifacio was
just awful and so is Hermida. Then all of a sudden the fish have had
10 hits in the last 10 games for the first time ever. Everyone is
killing the ball right now (well except for hermida). Uggla has
finally hit his stride, Hanley is Hanley, Coghlan is a bad ass, ross
is clutch and the baker/paulino combo has put up the best numbers in
the mlb at the catcher position since the all star break. And Nick
Johnson has been absolutely amazing (he gets his own section). Gload
and Helms have been awesome coming off the bench. They rank 1st and
3rd in the MLB for pinch hits and Gload's walk off brought a tear to
my eye. Watch out phillies.

Defense: Definitely much improved. Besides Bonifacio's ineptitude at
third and hermida in RF, the defense has been good to stellar at
times. I recall there was a 10 or so game streak without an error.
Coghlan has become quite the left fielder considering his natural
position is 2nd base. Nice job fish.

Nick Johnson: In terms of impact, I would argue that NJ was the best
mid-season trade by any mlb team. This guy is the piece the fish were
missing. Bonifacio's OBP is about .290 while NJ's is over .400 and is
6th in the MLB. Having him hit between the smoking hot Coghlan (8
multi-hit games in a row) and Hanley has been huge for this team. On
top of that, Boni has flourished in the utility role. His gold glove
also hasn't hurt, although it has taken Cantu a little bit to get
settled at third.

Not to bad at all. And what's next for our fishies? I think the win
the division. The Phillies will collapse while the finish continue
their hot hitting with solid pitching to back up. Once the fish get
into the playoffs, we all know what happens next....

the great lull

2009-07-12T10:06:00.000-07:00

Honestly, I haven't been a big follower of Major League Baseball in a long time. The first strike hurt, but I followed through Sosa and McGuire's home run chase. It wasn't steroids that turned me away from the game. It was just that my favorite team, the Dodgers of Los Angeles, were mediocre for a long period of time after 1988. They had that run of Rookie of the Year award winners in the 1990s, but those guys could never put it together to make a serious playoff run. There's was a brief bit of excitement when Lima time hit, but that team was done in four games. Then came last year and the one incredible trade that the Dodgers have made in the last 25 years: the Manny Ramirez deal. And now I care. Yes, call me fairweather or whatever. I love this team. I have a coffee mug and an old '88 World Series T that's all worn out and was originally my brother's back in '88. Then the Manny roids thing happened. I remember when I heard that. I was in O'Hare airport waiting to catch a plane to Minnesota and I called my family. Manny, steroids, out for 50 games. Shock, disbelief, but no despair. This team was too good for that. They had built such a big lead in the West with Manny that I reasoned if they could go .500 while Manny was out, they'd still be leading the West or close enough to make a run into the playoffs. The suspension would be a blessing in disguise because Manny would come back in July completely fresh and ready for the stretch run. It worked out better than any Dodger fan could hope. The team didn't just tread water; they ran roughshod over the National League going 29-21 and opening up a seemingly insurmountable lead in the West. Manny's back and completely healthy, well-rested for the time of year that really matters. And as a result, the Dodgers look like the only legitimate team in the National League.

Every other team is deeply flawed. The East is terrible. The Mets are broken and play like they expect to lose. Somehow Jerry Manuel isn't getting the heat that Willie Randolph felt despite the fact the two have similar records as manager of the Mets. The Phillies don't look like the Phillies of last year, and I think they only really get up when they know they have a chance to humiliate the Mets. The Marlins are young and so very up and down. I actually kinda like the Braves to win that division. They've got one of the best managers in baseball and their rotation isn't too bad. Plus, it just seems like every time this division is in flux like this and no one wants to step up, that the Braves just sort of shrug their shoulders and say "well I guess we've got to win this division again."

And then there's the Central. Milwaukee, ugh. St. Louis, a threat because of Pujols, but they've got holes all over the place. The Cubs? History is in their heads and we won't know if they can shake it until they get to the World Series. The Cubs haven't been all too good in years after going to the playoffs though and it looks like this year might be more of the same.

The Last NBA post in a while

2009-06-28T10:04:00.000-07:00

We've hit the dog days of sports when only the mid-summer moves of Major League Baseball can keep a sports fan interested. No NFL, no NBA, but there are a few of things going on with at least one of those sports.

Vinsanity to Orlando. Shaq to Cleveland. Amare to Golden State?

1. The Vince Carter deal. What a great deal for Orlando. Really, really good deal. They get an athletic wing that can play the 2 or 3, can take over games late, create shots for others, hits 3 pointers and is probably at the point in his career where he wants to play with other good players and will defer to them to win a championship. Basically, he's a poor man's Kobe Bryant. And all they really gave up is Courtney Lee, who can be a good player but will never be a Vince Carter. Now, Orlando looks like a championship contender even if they don't resign Hedo Turkoglu. If they do resign him, they have to be considered the favorites in the East.

2. Shaq to Cleveland. Another great deal for the Cavs that came about a half a year too late. If they do this deal in February, they might be celebrating a title. At least now, they get a motivated Diesel who will do the things they need: frontcourt scoring, rebounding, defense, toughness. Now they need a guard who's taller than 6'3". Even with Shaq, they won't be able to beat the Lakers if they don't have someone who can check Kobe.

3. Amare to Golden State? If this is true and it happens, then I guess the Suns have given up on trying to be a contender. They really blew it when they traded Marion for Shaq and the Shaq to Cleveland deal is a partial admission of it. They had a great core that was in contention every year but no depth. So they decided to trade the core. D'oh. This is why the NBA only has a few great teams and a lot of mediocre to bad teams. The GMs are just kind of dumb sometimes. In fairness to Steve Kerr, Robert Sarver has demonstrated time and again that he won't pay the luxury tax even if it means winning a title. So with this deal, Phoenix is saying that instead of rebuilding around an explosive 26 power forward/center, they've decided to rebuild around an aging 35 year old point guard in Steve Nash.

A few more NBA thoughts

2009-06-10T03:53:00.001-07:00

- Derek Fisher is very quietly having a pretty damn good Finals series. He's averaging 10 points on 50% shooting from both the field and the 3 point line.

- Kobe just didn't come through. He wanted it so bad that he could shoot straight. He had the worst 31 point game a player can have. Took too many shots, was way too cold in the second half and missed free throws and an open layup that would have tied the game. The ghost of Nick Anderson was haunting Kobe of all people.

- That said, Orlando played as good a game as they're going to play in the Finals. They shot an astounding 62.5% from the field and still only won by 4. Think about that. They almost lost a game where they shot more than 60%. I expect the Lakers to clamp down better on defense in Game 4 and pull it out. Of course, I always expect the Lakers to win, so I may not be the best predictor here.

One NBA Finals thought

2009-06-09T20:46:00.000-07:00

Hedo Turkoglu commits an offensive foul every time he brings the ball up court or drives to the basket. And that's not a bad joke about the quality of his play. He's a talented player, but he leads with his right elbow as he drives with his left hand dribbling the ball. He frequently pushes off with his elbow and then will use that elbow to get tangled up with his defender and get bailed out with a foul call. But he should be the one the refs call foul on. You just can't lead with your elbow. Other players do push off, but they do it subtly with their hands and at least try to hide it. Hedo's not subtle.

Looking ahead to how the Magic match up in the Finals

2009-05-27T04:40:00.000-07:00

I think the number of followers to this blog has droppped.

Barring a Magic-like collapse, Orlando should be in the NBA Finals. They're up 3-1 against the Cavs and they've got three chances to put this series away. They seemed to have developed a killer instinct after that Boston series. I like their odds.

Looking ahead to the Finals, and I think the Magic should be hoping that the Lakers beat the Nuggets because that's a much better matchup for them. The Magic have Pietrus and Courtney Lee, along with Hedo, to throw at Kobe and Howard can push around Gasol. The Lakers-Nuggets series is going at least six games and most likely seven, so the Lakers will continue to be exhausted going into the Finals. And Rafer Alston can afford to be spotty against the Lakers crap trio of point guards.

Denver, on the other hand, will give Orlando problems. Nene and K-Mart will rough up Dwight Howard and probably get in his head enough to force him into a technical foul, and Dwight's one away from an automatic one game suspension. Melo can guard any of Orlando's shooters and take Rashard Lewis out of the game. He can put them into a foul trouble too. Chauncey will destroy Rafer Alston and JR Smith, as long as he continues to play smart, negates Courtney Lee. Basically, Orlando would be facing a meaner version of this year's Celtics team.

That said, I can't believe what I'm going to say next. Orlando should be FAVORED in any Finals series provided they take care of business against the Cavs. This team is for real. I completely underestimated them, but they're well coached and that would make the difference in a series against Denver.

Here's the thing I notice about Denver. I'm not fully convinced that the team likes playing for George Karl. I think they like playing for Chauncey Billups. This Denver team quit on Karl some time late last year and started the season like they didn't care. Then Chauncey comes over in the Iverson trade (one of the most lopsided deals ever, and does that make Joe Dumars the GM or the Chrysler of the NBA?) and all of a sudden, the team looks loose and plays like it's having fun. You know who still doesn't look loose? George Karl. Chauncey is coaching this team. He calls the plays on the court and the guys listen to him. This is the exact same situation that Mike Dunleavy was in a few years back when the Clippers made the playoffs and Sam Cassell was basically coaching the team as the point guard. I don't think those guys liked Dunleavy back then and they quit on him the next season as Cassell was phased out. They didn't have confidence in his coaching decisions, which is understandable given that Dunleavy is absolutely terrible, and I think the same applies to the Nuggets and George Karl. Watch. Karl will make one or two more fourth quarter coaching blunders that will cost Denver a game or maybe the series. The bad thing for Denver is that Chauncey and his team know it's coming. They saw it in Game 1 with the inbounds pass fiasco. I can see him doing something dumb in Game 5 or 6 and the team just mailing in the next game. That won't happen on the other end with Phil Jackson and the Lakers, though Kobe may physically kill a few of his teammates before the end of the playoffs.

addendum to more nba stuff

2009-05-24T21:29:00.000-07:00

a day later, and look at what we have here. The Cavs are down 2-1 to the Magic, and really, they would be down 3-0 and on the verge of getting swept if LeBron hadn't made a borderline miracle shot at the end of game 2. I've heard people compare the Denver-LA series to the LA-Detroit Finals series from '04, but I think this Cavs-Magic series is more like that one. In that series, the Lakers won one game on a miracle 3 pointer from Kobe that sent the game to OT. The Magic destroyed, repeat DESTROYED, the Cavs at home in the regular season. Now they beat them by 10 in the playoffs. The Cavs are in a lot of trouble. LeBron put in another 40+ point game, but didn't shoot particularly well, and his teammates have yet to show up for this series. He's been great, but without Mo, Wally, Delonte, Z, Varajeo, Big Ben, Boobie and the rest, he won't make it past the Magic. Even if they do, I don't see how this team defends the Lakers. Gasol will run circles around their big men. They have no one who can guard Odom, and they won't want to stick LeBron on Kobe and risk losing some of LeBron's energy on the offensive end.

In the West, the Lakers are back in control after (depending on who you believe) stealing Game 3 or showing their veteran prowess in the Game 3. I prefer the latter. Forever underappreciated Kobe scored 41 points on pretty effective shooting and dished out 5 assists and basically carried the team in the 4th quarter. Yeah, he's not averaging a 35/9/7 like LeBron is in the post-season, but he's still the best player on arguably the most talented team in the postseason and he's been playing like this while having been basically playing ball for 2 years straight including two postseasons and one trip to the Olympics. And oh yeah, he's had a broken pinkie finger this entire time that would have sidelined almost any other player. Can we appreciate him for being one of the best NBA players of all time? That's definitely not in dispute. Kobe is a top 20 player and an absolute assassin with two minutes left in the game. He's one of the greatest clutch players ever and one of the most intense competitors the league has ever had. Is he Jordan? No. He's not as competitive, not as smart and not as complete of a player, but it's close. Kobe's got better range on his shot and he has the same ice running in veins. Kobe's big deficiency is that he can't consistently get his teammates involved like MJ did.

And don't the people who basically wrote the Lakers obituary after Game 2 feel real dumb now. The Lakers are up 2-1 with a chance to put the series out of reach on Monday. The lesson: if a series is 1-1, then it's even. This seems really obvious. I mean painfully obvious, but never underestimate the vapidity of the sportswriting consensus.

more nba stuff

2009-05-23T16:50:00.000-07:00

so explain this to me: The Lakers won game 1 and lost game 2 because Phil Jackson drew up a last second play for Derek Fisher instead of Kobe Bryant, and all of the sudden the consensus is that the Lakers are in a lot of trouble and probably won't win the West (see ESPN's SportsNation poll for more). Yet the Cavs, having only beaten weak teams in the playoffs so far, drop game 1 and come within a LeBron James semi-miracle, totally amazing 3 pointer from being down 2-0 to the Magic, and yet, no one seems to be writing their obituary. You know what we've learned so far in that series? LeBron is better than advertised and the rest of his team grossly overachieved in the regular season and seem lost in the playoffs. Mo Williams has been bad. The Big Z is slow and ineffective against Dwight Howard, even though Howard has no post game whatsoever.

Speaking of Howard, if Dwight had just one move in the post, just one, the Magic would be up 2-0 and we might be talking about them as the heavy favorites to win the whole thing. Watch him. He's awful on one-on-one offense. He's the best, most athletic energy player in the NBA, maybe ever, but he can't post anyone up. He has this weird running hook that he flings hard at the basket and he can dunk if he's right underneath the basket. He can't drive and doesn't have any touch around the rim. No layups, no jumpers, and no range. That said, what he does is amazing and that he can get 20 points a night is incredible. He scores entirely on effort: alley-oops fed to him, putbacks, and pick-and-roll dunks. And that's it. He's a beast on the boards, but he can be really thin-skinned and if the Cavs are smart, they get Ben Wallace or someone to get really physical with him. "Superman" gets a bit snippy when he gets pushed around. He took a few cheap shots at Kendrick Perkins last round because Perkins could push him around.

Back to the Cavs, they're in a lot of trouble if they can't figure out a way to guard Rashard Lewis and Hedo. The Cavs should go small, put James at the 4 and have him guard Lewis. Put Varajeo on Howard to take away the really easy dunks on deep post passes. Stick Delonte on Hedo, where despite the height difference, Delonte can effectively harass Hedo into turnovers. Make guys like Rafer Alston beat them. Meanwhile, Orlando's going back home where in the regular season, they absolutely destroyed the Cavs. It could be that this Magic team is just a matchup nightmare for the Cavs for whatever reason. Houston was a matchup problem for the Lakers last round despite missing Yao Ming and maybe because they were missing Tracy McGrady. By the way, I love how the same writers who were saying that Houston was better off without McGrady were then giving the Lakers shit for not being able to beat a Houston team without McGrady. Consistency, please.

manny and roids

2009-05-08T19:20:00.000-07:00

There's no way that Manny Ramirez used steroids. He's too lazy to cycle properly. Too undisciplined to stick to that kind of regiment. It's possible that he tried it once and used them wrong and got nothing out of it and stopped. That's about the only scenario where I can envision him knowingly taking roids. Manny seems like more of a pothead than a meathead.

the lakers wake up...finally!

2009-05-07T06:54:00.000-07:00

They needed that. The game one loss was ugly for the Lakers. They couldn't hit a three-point shot, Kobe was held in check and Bynum and Odom essentially took that night off. Only 10 fast break points, and an overall lethargic and yes, lazy effort from the most talented team in the NBA. Note: not the best team, but the most talented. Their only glaring hole is at point guard.

So just about everyone knew that the Lakers would take game two. And they did, but it was how they did it. They roughed up the Rockets. They traded blows with Ron Artest. They got under Houston's skin and put doubt in their minds. And oh yeah, Kobe became a scoring juggernaut again, racking 40 against the Battier/Artest combo. Lamar Odom showed up, although Andrew Bynum is still on vacation.

Game 3 is the big test and you have to know that Phil Jackson is going to have his team ready. If the Lakers take game 3, they can send a strong message to not just he Rockets, but the Denver Nuggets, their likely opponent in the Western Conference Finals, as well.

In other LA sports news, the Dodgers just opened up 13-0 at home. Holy cow! I will know follow baseball. Expect a more detailed post on this and how the Yankees screwed themselves by screwing their fans. In the meantime, I'll resume my tour of America's least exciting airports. LaGuardia, you're up. Next stop: O'Hare.

simple mathmatics

2009-04-30T19:51:00.000-07:00

BULLS -CELTICS > Sleep

Jesus, triple overtime and counting...

not so instant draft analysis

2009-04-25T18:48:00.000-07:00

Worst pick of the first round: Mark Sanchez - #5 overall by the Jets.
The Jets traded the farm to get the quarterback they wanted, but why? Is Sanchez a franchise quarterback? Well, I don't think so. Let's look at some of Mark Sanchez's numbers last year.

He lit up Penn State to tune of 413 yards, 4 TDs and 80% completion. But he stunk up the joint against Arizona State and really didn't play any top defenses. He had a pretty good year last year, but is he a one-year wonder? He's not really a guy they want to start right away and what else do the Jets have at that position? Kellen Clemens, Erik Ainge. These aren't guys that you want holding down the fort for a couple years while Sanchez gets his legs under him.

Second worst pick of the first round: Darrius Heyward-Bey - #7 overall by the Raiders. Good god. Crabtree's on the board and the Raiders go with a guy that had two games last season where he didn't have a catch. It's a classic Raiders pick. Heyward-Bey runs a great 40 time and looks like a good athlete, but his hands and football IQ are questionable. By the way, 40 times are pretty meaningless. It's rare that a player is going to run 40 yards in a straight line in a football game.

The Browns, on the other hand, put on a draft deal clinic, trading down multiple times to pick up more picks and they still got the guy they wanted. The Bengals also made the most of their two picks and got Andre Smith, maybe the top offensive tackle, and Rey Maualuga, maybe the top middle linebacker.

Though really, the truth is this analysis is only a guess. No one really knows who will be a bust and who will have a bust made in Canton one day. It takes a good three to four years to really get a handle on how successful a team's draft was. Look at KC's draft last year. Everyone gave them an A, but Dorsey was invisible last season. So now, that draft doesn't look so great, but there's a chance that he makes an impact this year. If by his third or fourth year, he's still invisible, you can safely say it was a wasted pick and a failed draft. So don't believe the grades you read right now, even from and maybe especially from me. And don't buy people that put up 38 mock drafts. They stlll don't get the picks right.

on the road

2009-04-22T13:23:00.000-07:00

In the land of beautiful beaches, perfect weather and two of my favorite sports teams, the lakers and the dodgers, and taking advantage of the blackberry to post while on the road. Wouldn't want to deprieve my loyal readership of 4 of a new post.

In basketball news, adding injury to injury, leon powe is done for the rest of the celtics postseason, however long that might be. Boston is reduced to relying on Mikki Moore for long stretches of play. Ouch. Expect KG to make a miraculous comeback if Boston makes it back home for game 6. He won't stomach sitting out for long and he's already said he's delaying surgery until the offseason.

Minus Powe and KG, Boston's chances of upending Cleveland have slipped to none. The Cavs should sweep Detroit, who, surprise surprise, can't turn it on in the playoffs and are not at all dangerous like some writers suggested. Sub-500 teams don't turn it on and off. Detroit's in fo a long offseason. Sheed has nothing left, AI was a mistake, and Tayshaun's peaked as a third or fourth banana at best. What happened to his defense? Curry can't reach these guys. Maybe firing Flip was a little premature. All he ever did was lead the team to the eastern conference finals twice.

In the west, utah is just outmanned by the lakers. They may take game 3 because of the boost from the home crowd, but even those fans shouldn't expect much out of this team at this point. They need shooters badly.

Welcome to the playoffs, Portland. After getting absolutely crushed by the Rockets at home, Roy and Co. responded nicely in game 2. Yes, Roy is that good. 42 and wow.

Don't look now, but the two hottest teams in baseball are the Marlins and the Dodgers. Makes me wish Joe Angel was still calling Marlins games so we could hear a lot of his signature call, "the Marlins are in the WIN column."

thumbs are getting tired. More thoughts when I'm back home.

and then he was like BOOM!

2009-04-16T19:52:00.000-07:00

Two quick thoughts before I crash for the night:

1. Sunday Night Football won't be as fun this season without Madden calling the games. Oh sure, Collinsworth is a great analyst, but Madden had his own unique way of showing people the game. He gets a lot of shit, and rightfully so sometimes, for lines like "the team that scores more touchdowns will win the game." I mean really, no shit, Sherlock. But he also knew the ins and outs of line play and it's a rare analyst that can describe what's going on in the trenches. And his Maddenisms made boring games a little more fun. Collinsworth already supplanted Madden in the broadcast booth of his own video game in the Xbox and PS3 versions, and that's a damn travesty.

2. KG is out for the first round and likely the entire playoffs. And so there are now only two legitimate contenders in the NBA: Cleveland and LA. The Celts will handle Chicago and maybe Orlando, but definitely not Cleveland. Not without KG.

Playoff time for the NBA

2009-04-15T04:52:00.001-07:00

Listening to Frank Deford on NPR as I type this. He's like the Andy Rooney of sports, all full of amazement at trends that people have seen and lived through for the last 15 years. Who knew that a point guard was just as important as a big man in basketball? Or that point guards can create their own shot? Or that, and I hope you're sitting down for this revelation, Magic revolutionized the position. He seems to have no idea that basketball stats have gotten increasingly complex and comprehensive and that yes, we can determine if say Chris Paul has a greater impact on his team than Tyson Chandler. Note to Deford: Paul makes Chandler a good player, so yes, the point guard is more valuable in this case. Seems like he slept through the 90s when, aside from the Duncan-Robinson Spurs in '99 and the Dream-led Rockets in '94 and '95, the decade was dominated by a shooting guard named Michael Jordan. Hell, you could argue that since the late 80s, guards determined who won the NBA championship. Magic and Isiah were the two most important players from '87-'90. I'll give him this: the 2000s have been dominated by big men (Shaq and Duncan have combined for 6 of the titles in the decade and Garnett was arguably the most important Celtic last year), but all that means is that Deford doesn't know basketball pre-2000.

On to more important things.

Well, the 82 game NBA season is finally coming to a close and here's what we think we know about it:

1. The Lakers will be unchallenged in the West and maybe sweep through everyone. They'll only lose a game if they're bored. With Bynum back, the team is at full strength, and this was a group that trampled through the West without much effort even without their 7 foot prodigy.

2. The Cavs and Celtics will meet up in the Eastern Conference Finals. They have to. The season has been building to this matchup.

3. The Cavs will win the East if Garnett isn't 100%.

4. Garnett is not 100%.

5. Orlando needs to dominate a postseason series before people start accepting them as a bonafide championship contender.

6. Seeds 4-8 don't matter in the East. Only Miami has a chance at putting a real scare into one of the top teams. Chicago looks good, but do you really trust Vinny Del Negro to win a playoff series?

7. Seeds 2-8 don't matter in the West. And there could be 6 teams in that bunch with 50 wins. But each one of those teams is so fundamentally flawed (Portland has no playoff experience, the Spurs are old and broken down, the Hornets look out of sorts and Chandler and Peja are hurt, Houston doesn't have a go-to end of game scorer, Utah just looks awful lately, the Mavs are the Mavs and still have to rely on Jason Kidd to defend at least one athletic point guard in the playoffs (Yikes!) and Denver has no front court depth) that it seems unlikely that any of them will get past the Lakers.

8. Out of those flawed teams, I like Portland and the Rockets. Yao and Artest should be enough to get the Rockets out of the first round if they play either the Hornets or the Mavs. Portland can beat just about any of the other teams that aren't the Lakers except maybe the Spurs. Parker's a tough matchup for them and the playoff experience of the Spurs could prove too much for the young Trailblazers.

9. Why is everyone saying that Detroit is dangerous? This has been a common theme in the latter part of the season by sportswriters on every major site. Detroit is terrible and the thought that a sub-500 team can turn it on in the playoffs is absurd. I've watched a little bit of Detroit basketball this year and Rasheed Wallace is done. He's not just hurt, he's spent. He's got nothing in the tank. If he catches fire from 3 point range, he can be dangerous, but he's not willing or able to consistently post up players and defend the post. They count on Kwame Brown for big minutes. I think that should be repeated. They count on KWAME BROWN, YES, THAT KWAME BROWN, the one with BUST branded all over him, for big minutes. Tayshaun isn't that good offensively. He should be. He has all the tools, but for some reason, he just hasn't been that great. This team doesn't have a point guard. They have a bunch of shooting guards with Will Bynum, Rip Hamilton, A.I. (though he's played his last game with the team), Arron Afflalo and Rodney Stuckey. With Chauncey, this team is a 4 seed and is dangerous. They still wouldn't be beating the top teams, but they'd beat anyone from the 5th seed down and they'd take any of the Big 3 in the East to at least 6 games. But they made a bonehead deal for A.I. and now they're the 8th seed and they look like the easiest team to beat in either conference.

10. The Cavs are the best team in the league, but I'm not sure that anyone is afraid of playing them. In the West, there's a scramble to avoid playing the Lakers in the first or second round. I don't see that in the East. I think Boston and Orlando both want Cleveland and Orlando, especially, has manhandled Cleveland in the regular season and so has no reason to fear them. Even Detroit, who aren't a threat to anyone and will probably be swept and blown out by 20 in each game against the Cavs, don't fear them. I suspect that might change once the Cavs sweep Detroit.

Chicago's the big winner of the Cutler trade

2009-04-03T19:32:00.001-07:00

I know. They traded two first round picks and Kyle Orton, but it's worth it. The Bears knew what they had in Kyle Orton. He can be a decent quarterback with the right talent around him. He can manage a game effectively. He can make two or three big throws a game and hand off to a running back for the rest of it. Essentially, he's what Kerry Collins is now. But Cutler can be spectacular. Cutler is a franchise QB. He threw for more than 4,000 yards last year. He's very good. The Bears are now set at the quarterback position for the next 10 years. I think any team would gladly give up a decent talent and two 1st round picks to be set at the most important position in the game for the next decade.

As for the Broncos, well, you never ever trade a franchise quarterback, especially one that's only 25 years old. They'll regret this for years. Kyle Orton might be good enough for them, but they'll always wonder what if. I think there's enough around Orton in Denver to make him effective. Their offensive line is solid. They've got good receivers in Eddie Royal and Brandon Marshall. They have a stable of decent running backs. They should be able to be effective offensively. But, think of how good they would be with a great quarterback. As it is, the Broncos don't look like they're challenging the Chargers for the division any time soon.

Side note on the Chargers: They went 8-8, snuck into the playoffs in the last week of the regular season, and have done absolutely nothing to improve the team in the offseason. How can they be satisfied with an 8-8 team? Oh right, Norv's the coach. They better watch out. The cellar dwellers of the AFC West have both gotten better. Oakland will continue to get better as JaMarcus Russell improves. They've got a dynamic backfield with Michael Bush, Darren McFadden and Justin Fargas. Their receivers improved late in the year and they're in position to draft a special talent like Michael Crabtree. Kansas City traded for a real quarterback. No offense to Tyler Thigpen, who looked good in some games last year, but Matt Castle was great last year and should be good for KC. They kept Tony Gonzalez. Dwayne Bowe should be even better with a real QB throwing to him. And the defense has to get better with all the youth they have there. In fact, had they not stupidly traded Jared Allen last year (double-digit sack machine and he was only 26 at the time), this team would look like a sleeper contender.

Instant Karma?

2009-04-01T19:01:00.000-07:00

The Orlando Magic lost to the surging, but lowly Toronto Raptors tonight, 99-95. The home loss hurts Orlando because they're competing with the Celtics for the number two seed in the Eastern Conference, and they have now fallen percentage points behind Boston. But should they have seen this loss coming?

From the AP by way of ESPN.com: In an April Fool's joke that left everyone but the contestant laughing, the Magic made a fan think he was shooting a half-court shot for $100,000 at halftime. The fan was blindfolded, and the crowd was told beforehand to cheer as if he made the shot. The young contestant, named Dan, missed badly but believed he won and danced around the court in a frenzy. Before being told it was a joke and showed the replay he said, "I just got laid off at work." He was given a 100 Grand Bar of candy instead but was not laughing.

Poor taste, Orlando Magic.

A tale of two inbounds plays

2009-03-29T07:16:00.000-07:00

I haven't written much about the tournament because I don't like to harp on how I'm losing money, but I caught the end of the Villanova-Pitt game and I had to point out a couple things.

Villanova might be the best team in the tournament when they are on. I saw them dismantle Duke and that game was even more one-sided than the final score indicated. Against Pitt, Nova was not at its best, but they still had spurts that made me think that not even Pitt's tough squad could hang with them.

The other thing worth noting: Villanova ran the all-time worst inbounds play ever with about 6 seconds left in the game. Facing full court pressure, no Nova players were coming to the ball until it was too late. The inbounder threw a full court pass that couldn't be handled, Pitt stole the ball, was fouled (doh!) and tied the game. Nova then made up for it by running an incredible inbounds play following the Pitt free throws, and having guard Scottie Reynolds drive half the court for the game-winning floater.

The obligatory Raiders update that only two people care about

2009-03-28T08:59:00.000-07:00

By request of Jesse Bryan, here's an update on what's happening in the crazier part of the great north bay.

The Raiders have essentially swapped Jake Grove for Samson Satele. ESPN the Magazine, which by the way is a lot of glossy pages without a lot of content, is high on Jake Grove, but I don't see it. He's not a bad center, but he's injury prone and the big knock on him was that he wasn't very strong. He had a good year last year, but he always struggled against bigger nose tackles (Jamal Williams ate him alive last season) and there's a possibility that his numbers were inflated by facing extremely weak D-lines in Denver and KC twice a year. Samson Satele is 24 and has two years of experience already. He's a good fit for the zone blocking system the Raiders employ and he's cheaper than Grove. Player salaries are going to continue to be a bigger part of teams' planning now that the salary cap will most likely be out after this year.

Look at this deal another way. The Raiders let Grove go, saved money and then traded a sixth round pick for his replacement, a starter on a division champ last year. That's a great deal.

Belated condolences to the family of Marquis Cooper, Corey Smith and Will Bleakley.

Cornell Green was arrested for hitting the mother of his children with a mop handle. Idiot.

Circle your calendars. The Raiders are playing on Thanksgiving for the first time in 39 years. They also get a Monday Night Football home opener against the Chargers. That could be ugly.

Contrary to popular belief, the Raiders never inquired about Terrell Owens and the Buffalo Bills, a team nobody picked to sign him, signed him. And this is something I really hate about the sports media. Whenever someone who's a talented malcontent is out on the market, the assumption is always that the Raiders will sign him. Why is that? They've passed on a number of gifted assholes in the past. But people like Chris Mortensen will continue to further these rumors without any basis for it. Mort is especially bad about this because he's admitted in the past that he doesn't bother contacting the Raiders for their side of the story.

The Raiders have actually been pretty quiet in free agency this year. They took care of their own (Nnamdi Asomugha and Chris Johnson's deals) and got some bargains to shore up areas of needs (Khalif Barnes, Samson Satele). They cut Gibril Wilson a bit prematurely, but he wasn't worth the money. Plus, now they need a safety so Al can draft his favorite position in the draft. Ugh.

Speaking of the draft, here's what Al and Tom should be looking at: Receiver, Defensive Line, Offensive Line, Linebacker, and then maybe Safety. There's a few really good receivers in the first round. Crabtree is going to be great. He's got great hands, great vision and incredible athleticism. Percy Harvin, if he stays healthy, is by far the most explosive receiver of the last few years. Forget the 40 times. The guy is what they call "football fast," meaning he's quick on the field. Even Jeremy Maclin, who I'm not as high on, has the potential to be very good. He's like a Harvin-lite, quick, elusive and deceptively strong.

Another guest post about the Marlins from you know who

2009-03-28T06:43:00.000-07:00

On vacation in beautiful sunny, hot, humid, sometimes disgusting...er..often disgusting Florida and I thought it was appropriate to throw it to our favorite guest poster, Jesse Bryan, for a look at how the Marlins are doing. They're trying to build a stadium in the least convenient part of Miami to travel to, right in the middle of a stinking shithole of a neighborhood (no offense to the people that live there, but you know) rather than building in West Broward so that the Broward and West Palm residents that make up the bulk of their season ticket holders could easily reach the stadium. Like most Miami stadium/arena ventures, I expect that it will be evident that this one is a complete failure within two years. Also, the Marlins will still draw 7,000 fans a night because the stadium has never been the big problem. A new stadium is not a cure for sports apathy. Anyway, on with the guest post. Thanks again to Jesse for doing this, he's a fine writer who loves his Marlins:

Ladies and jellyfish,

Due to the scintillating success of my first post and the non-stop demand for more marlins chatter, I will try to make my posts this relatively constant throughout the season. First, I want to once again thank Jason “Boney-Bologna” Sanchez for letting me use his forum for my expert in-depth coverage. I also want to extend a warm hug and caramel apple to you, the reader, for your continued and undying support. Even though you did not give me the curtsey of leaving a single comment on my first post, I know that in your heart you made enough comments to fill the Nile River 3 times over. And for that I thank you and dedicate this post to you, my loyal and devoted reader. Anyway, I wanted to devote this post to one of the most important events in Marlins history: the new stadium.

Say hello to your Miami Marlins (b. 2012) and adios to any talk of the Las Vegas Marlins. The stadium has been approved and will be built in Little Havana on the site of the old orange bowl. Besides the creation of the team in 1991, this has to be the most significant event in team history. It has been over a decade in the making and it is pretty impressive/shocking they were able to get this done considering the economic climate in Miami, which has been one of the hardest hit spots in the country. My gracious host, Mr. Sanchez, has expressed serious concerns about the public financing of the stadium (which I also expressed), I now must say I cautiously sort-of but not really, okay I do, but for my own selfish fish-loving reasons, support it.

$480 million of the $634 million cost will from public money (ie: from Winifred William Taxpayer). The plan here is to have tourist dollars in the form of a hotel bed tax pay for the bulk of this. Fair enough. There were also clauses included to make sure Loria doesn’t pull a fast one by selling the team once the stadium is built. If he sells (which he has repeatedly said he has no intention to do so) in the first year the city gets 90% of the profits and every year thereafter it goes down a certain percentage. Not bad, not bad. The yay-sayers say it will create vital jobs in this depressed economy. The nay-sayers say it will be short-term fix and is not a long term solution. Both have valid points. Is the city fronting too much of the bill? Probably (although this actually lower than some other stadium deals). Is this the best place for a city devastated by the current economic climate to put its money? Probably not. Do stadiums help the communities they are forced upon? Historically, this answer seems to be an emphatic “no”. So I don’t know what to think. At least Miami didn’t buy 15 or so Apache helicopters with $480 mil. Socio-economic factors aside, for the team and fans it is great news. This could finally mean retention of players and actual free-agent signings (but the no-name players and underdog spirit are a big reason what attracts me to the team, no?). Will this new stadium attract a significantly greater fan base that actually attends games? I tend to think yes. I believe the marlins potential lies within it being a Miami team. That’s where the real fan potential lies and where this team can really build up a legacy. Who needs/wants the Boca Raton/Palm Beach County yuppie scum anywho (I don’t get why people think they are so important.. Whenever I’m in WPB during a marlins game, we generally have to ask to have the game turned on, and even then no gives a rats popsickle). There is also the issue of what happens if (when) it goes over-budget. Either it’s happening. It is finally happening. Pro-Player is a horrible spot for the fish to play 81 games a year and the new stadium design is pretty impressive (retractable roof, etc) and will surely up the attendance numbers. One side of me is thrilled to have the team guaranteed a future. The other side wonders if this is the best use of money and would it not be better to invest the money into social/economic services for the same area. Are giant public works projects that ultimately put the bulk of money into the riches hands really the best way to fix an ailing economy? This whole thing is full of contradictions. So reader, I’d love to hear your thoughts on the issue so feel free to leave a comment or 2.

On the spring training front, it has been moving along about as fast as a dead slug, but opening day is coming faster than Mike Lindstrom’s fastball. I will have a post before opening day about this season’s expectations (it was supposed to be this post, but I got carried away with the stadium banter). I think the marlins have a great team this year and have the potential to take the division or wild card. Nolasaco’s pitched a rare spring training no-hitter a few nights ago so bravo to him. I fully expect him to carry that into the regular season. Until next time my little fishies!

To get you salivating for more, here is a preview of words/phrases that may or not be used in my next post: team, baseball, catfish, underwear, chicken socks, Deleware, rosemary, the Great Unknown, Henry Kissinger, Ocean’s 12, that-a-boy, moonbat, zygote, hand-me-down, The fall of Babylon, furry, Chiclets, cold-cuts, underground railroad, Shinobi, hamster, ricotta cheese, quantum physics, and hair.

catching up

2009-03-24T04:47:00.000-07:00

Something called the World Baseball Classic happened and Japan won. It looked like baseball but felt like soccer to most Americans, including the USA team that played in the thing. None of them cared about the outcomes of the games and used them to try and "get their reps in" for spring training. In other news, Davey Johnson got to pretend to be a real, bonafide big league manager again and showed exactly why he shouldn't have that job longer than three weeks.

The Broncos continue to piss off moody quarterback Jay Cutler. This seems to be a really bad strategy for handling your star player. The guy had a Pro Bowl season last year, and while some writers have been quick to point to his overall losing record as a starter, I'm even quicker to point out that the Broncos have been deceptively shitty, especially on defense, during that period. Point is, it's not Cutler's fault the team is lousy. He's growing into the job. Only been at it for a few years and he's getting better each year.

What is his fault is the thin skin he wears. He's pissed about almost being traded so he wants to be traded. Go figure.

The NBA season is winding up and the teams are locking in their seeding. The Lakers are clearly number one in the West and San Antonio is most likely locked into the two spot. In the East, Cleveland has a stranglehold on the one spot and Boston and Orlando will most likely follow in that order. Atlanta (!) is four and the Heat will rise no further than fifth. That leaves Philly to hold off Detroit for six and one other team to sneak into the playoffs. The three through eight seeds in the West are still in flux and no one's quite sure if surging Phoenix can sneak in and knock the Mavs out for the privilege of being swept by LA in the first round.

Your NBA Finals: Lakers vs. Cavs/Celts, but most likely Cavs. LA in 6. The Lakers match up well with the Cavs. I'll write more about this as we get closer to it actually happening, but let's just say this: the Lakers can't handle quick driving guards (read: Rondo). Spot up shooters (Mo Williams, Boobie Gibson), on the other hand, are a lot easier to defend.

see you in another three weeks....heh.

The real reason the Tyson Chandler trade fell through

2009-02-21T16:09:00.000-08:00

So New Orleans gave up on their season and traded Tyson Chandler to Okie Dokie City for expiring contracts. Except that Okie Dokie City did a medical test and said Chandler had a previously unknown foot injury that was so devastating that they wouldn't accept the trade, even though Chandler is expected to play this season. Everyone, and I mean EVERYONE, who watches the NBA thought the trade rejection was a little off. I'm here to say it was downright fishy. This reeks of the heavy hand of the Commish. Here's my conspiracy theory: The Commish would not allow New Orleans to throw away their season. He wants Chris Paul and company to be in the playoffs so he can showcase Paul, one of the NBA's biggest new stars. Furthermore, the more contenders there are in the West (though really it's the Lakers, the Spurs and then everyone else in that order), the better the ratings will be come playoff time. If this is the case, I agree wholeheartedly with the Commish and fully support this. Shame on New Orleans for giving up on their season when they're in line for a playoff spot. I've never seen this happen. Teams try to get better heading into the playoffs. Sometimes they gamble and it doesn't work (see Dallas Mavericks Jason Kidd trade for an example), but they almost never actively try to get worse to save a few bucks down the road.

Expect the lottery balls to fall Okie Dokie City's way in a few months as a reward for going along with the Commish. If Okie Dokie City wins the Blake Griffin sweepstakes, then you'll know I was right about my conspiracy theory.

Jesse's Guest Post

2009-02-20T03:41:00.000-08:00

So as sports slows down, so to does the Idiot Fan. But fear not, because I have opened the floor to a very special guest blogger. I probably won't ever post on the Florida Marlins except to say the state and the city should not give that team money to build a new stadium when the state and city are so far in debt that they have to cut basic social services. But no state should give any team money in this climate. Anywho, enough economic babble, on with the show..........

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Marlins Report

Aloha Fish fans. I'd first like to thank the Idiot Fan and his devoted readership for allowing myself to post about the most untalked about team in baseball, the Florida Marlins. So as we gear up for another season of exciting marlins diamond diggery doo, let me start by first examining the off season moves by the Teal Tossers [of baseballs]:

The Great:

Kevin Gregg for Jose Ceda. A brilliant trade by the fish to attain the powerful arm in Jose Ceda, the much heralded prospect from the Cubs (#2 or 3 prospect in the entire cubs system I believe), for the waste of space that is Kevin Gregg, who's 9 lives (with lives being a euphemism for the his league leading 9 blown saves in 2008) have been exhausted. What was worse Mr. Gregg? Was it giving up that save in that ridiculous 17-18 loss to Colorado or was it giving up that grand slam in the top of the ninth (fish had a 3 – 2 lead and were still in the hunt) to the Mets on my BIRTHDAY. Good riddance sir. I hope you catch bed bugs.

Keeping Jorge Cantu, Ricky Nolasco, and Josh Johnson for at least another year: While I wish they would sign some gosh dang multi-year contracts, at least they're keeping these guys around for another year. Ricky and Josh should have monster years. Both are ace quality pitchers and it will be nice to seem them

Extending Fredi's contract: 2 years Okay. So I haven't been the most supportive of good ole Fredi in the past. I guess I just like my managers to smoke cigars and show some emotion every now and then a la Jack McKeon. However, I do really think Fredi is the perfect manager for this super young team. Hopefully, he learned his lesson last year about overworking your bullpen too early (think Pinto) and thank god he doesn't even have to consider putting Kevin Gregg in there. It's nice to see the fish taking an interest in keeping a team for once.

The Good:

Scott Proctor: The Fish desperately needed another dependable arm in the bullpen and that's exactly what they got with this solid free agency pick up. Proctor had impressive numbers including 3.5 ERA and 1.2 WHIP in 2006 with the Yanks. He was injured last year, so those numbers do not reflect how he pitches healthy. This is a classic fish move picking up a solid reliever coming off a tough year on the cheap. The fish bullpen was certainly an issue going into 2009, making Proctor is a welcome addition. The fact is, Fredi killed Pinto last year, who after a very strong start, became a liability in the bullpen as he racked up the most appearances for a reliever before he went on IR. Proctor is an important addition to a bullpen that should be much stronger this year.

Mike Jacobs for Leo Nuñez: Another solid trade in my opinion. Jacobs was worthless and worthlesser on defense. His home runs came at the most timeliness of times, like when the fish were up or down by 7. His strikeouts always came when it mattered and they came frequently. Statistically he was the worst first baseman in baseball last year consistently making poor, lazy plays. Nunez, while untested, is another strong arm with great potential and is another fine addition to the fish bullpen which is really looking quite formidable, despite its youth. Last year in KC he posted an fine 2.98 ERA and I expect similar or better numbers from him this year.

The bad:

Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham for Emilio Bonofacio and 2 minor leaguers. What? Come again? Hello? While I have no attachment to either player and definitely glad to see Scott "Here have some jello shots Don Hopscotch and Mott McSwilly" Olsen go, is this really all they could get for them: an above-average defender/terrible bat and a few decent-at-best prospects?!?!? I DON'T BELIEVE IT!!! Top top it off, the Fish front office doesn't expect Bonofacio to make the cut in spring training. Billowing Bananas!!!!!!!!!!!! I'll retract my previous statement, as I did like Willingham (AKA Woogybottom). The fish had to cut either Woogybottom or Hermida, and since the fish FO Hermida has a love affair with Hermida, they said adios to Woogy. His numbers before he got injured last year were absolutely staggering and it would be disappointing if he were to regain that form, while Hermida doesn't find his.

Not signing Joe Nelson. COME ON FISH!!! Joe had a great year last year, and while yes he is in the twilight of his career, it would only of taken a few more hundred thousand to have him for another season. In 54 innings he posted a 2 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and 60 K's. Sad to see you go Joe, but I'm glad you found a spot on the Rays who paid you a lot more.

The Fish front office being the Fish front office

Back-up catcher. While I am happy with Baker (although realistic that he can't repeat last year's performance), it would have been nice to sign one of the zillion catchers out there. Or even better, it would have been nice to actually of gotten value for Olsen and Woogybottom. There is still talk of signing Pudge, and while that is a long shot, every day that goes by ups the chances ever so little. I'm also a bit dismayed to see Treanor go, and I wonder if the fish regret not retaining him now that they have been unable to land another catcher.

Not signing Uggla to a multi-year contract: I know the Fish hate signing multi-year contracts, and I also know Uggla was downright horrendous after the all-star break, but still, give the man some love!!! I'm happy he won his arbitration case as he certainly deserves it.

Dan Meyer from free agency: With the unfortunate loss of Rhode, who was downright dominating in limited timelast year, the fish needed a situational lefty. They got it with Meyer. He has only pitched 47 innings of major league ball and while his era has been astronomical, his whip is only 1.76. The fish seem to have a knack for finding these bullpen types so hopefully he'll turn into another one of those fish finds.

Wes Helms 2 year contract: Hmmmm....So, you don't sign multi-year contracts, but you sign, off all people, Wes Helms to a 2 year contract. Wes is a solid utility player and I'm happy to see him stay, but sheesh! Oh fish.

Overall: Not bad fish. Not bad. No huge surprises one way or the other. They retained a majority of last year's team while taking out the trash (Jacobs, Olsen, Gregg). The Willingham/Olsen trade is downright mindboggling, but I think the Jacobs and Gregg trades almost make up for it. They've certainly shored up the bullpen which was a big concern need. A backup catcher (Rabelo isn't going to cut it) is still an issue as the fish should of been more aggressive in landing someone in that position. But I really can't complain. The front office did what they said they would do.

Okay Fish Fans. That's my off-season moves report. In the coming days I will update with my predictions for the season, my evaluation of the team, spring training news, and other various fish facts, like what was Billy the Marlins major in college.

The AFC is wide open, two too good to be true NBA trades, and why A-Rod fails in the clutch

2009-02-07T18:22:00.001-08:00

Football first:

Look across the landscape that is the AFC and tell me who's a lock to make the playoffs. Pittsburgh a lock, but after that, nothing's guaranteed. Tennessee was the best team in the AFC this year, but they have huge question marks. For starters, can Kerry Collins replicate last season's magic run as a starter? And will they keep Albert Haynesworth, who was their most important player on defense?

Indy changed head coaches. The Dolphins might have been a one-year wonder. They have a tougher schedule this season. The Pats still have the giant question about the state of Brady's knee. The Ravens have a few key free agents on the defense, and the Chargers are coached by Norv Turner.

Houston looked decent at the end of the year, but this team's peak might be 9-7 or 8-8. The Broncos are going to be rebuilding. That defense needs a lot of help and I think they're about a year away from being a serious playoff threat. The Chiefs are about 3 years away at least, and the Raiders are the Raiders. I like Cable as their head coach, but I can't pencil them, even lightly, in the playoffs because of the past 5 years. They have to show me they can win more than 5 games in a season before I start to believe in them.

The Jets have questions at quarterback and the defense faded down the stretch. They should be better under Rex Ryan, but he's a first year head coach, so you never know. The Bills are coached by Dick Jauron, so you can never take them too seriously.

The Browns are the Browns and the Bengals have a lot of holes on offense and defense. Jacksonville completely imploded this year and David Garrard was exposed as a one-year wonder.

And yet, it's the offseason, and every team is dreaming of the Super Bowl. And really, if the Cardinals can make the Super Bowl and if the Dolphins can win 11 games a season after losing 15, why can't a team like the Raiders or the Jags make a run in the playoffs?

NBA Stuff (stop reading if you don't care about basketball or baseball from this point on)

Two possible trades involving two Suns that would make for the best stories in the NBA this year. One of them is a really smart trade and the other is questionable.

Trade #1: Amare Stoudemire for Shawn Marion and Michael Beasley or spare parts from the Heat. The Heat need to do this deal. They would have essentially turned Shaq and a #1 pick into Amare Stoudemire. How is that not a great deal? Stoudemire paired with D-Wade makes the Heat a 50 win team and the 4th best team in the East. That team becomes good enough to beat Orlando and scare the Cavs and the Celtics in the playoffs.

For the Suns, it would be the ultimate admission of a mistake. They traded Marion for Shaq because Marion and Stoudemire couldn't co-exist and they wanted to shake up the team. Well that shake-up is an abysmal failure. The Suns never recovered from losing to the Spurs in the first round of last year's playoffs. They inexplicably forced Mike D'Antoni out of town and then hired Terry Porter (really?!?) to get the team to play better defense, except that really hasn't worked and now everyone on that team hates playing in Phoenix.

Trade #2: Shaq for Lamar Odom and spare parts. This would be huge. Might not be a great deal for the Lakers, since Odom's versatility is more of a benefit to them when Bynum's healthy and playing, but for sheer storylines, Shaq back with Kobe on the Lakers would be huge. He would immediately fill their need for interior toughness while Bynum's out. And he wouldn't have to play big minutes since they have Gasol. And when Bynum came back, he could play 20 minutes a game and save himself for the playoffs. I'd like this trade a little more if the Lakers hadn't traded Radmanovich (who sucks, but can score occasionally) for Adam Morrison (who REALLY sucks and can't score even occasionally). Odom can fill a lot of roles for a team. He's a good complimentary scorer, good rebounder, decent defender and a good ballhandler. He's come up in a lot of trade scenarios, but I think the Lakers would be smart to keep him. If this did happen, it'd be funny that Lakers would be trading Odom for Shaq since they got Odom from the Heat in a trade with Shaq. Both these trades would be like teams hitting the reset button.

MLB (stop reading if you cared about the NBA, but not about MLB)
Why A-Rod always fades in the clutch

As it turns out, the dude just doesn't know how to cycle his roids properly. He gets to September and he lays off the juice and turns into a normal player. Then, knowing he doesn't have his usual pick-me-up, he panics and makes abnormally stupid plays in the field and at bat. Hence, his propensity to fold in the playoffs.

The Arizona Cardinals might win the Super Bowl

2009-01-28T18:43:00.001-08:00

Think about that for a second. The Cardinals, who like the Clippers in basketball and well, previously the Rays in baseball, were so dependably bad for years might win the Super Bowl. They've got the better quarterback, better receivers, the better offensive line, better special teams and the better wildcard in this game.

Their coach Ken Whisenhunt knows the Steelers like no other coach in the league aside from Steeler's coach Mike Tomlin. Whisenhunt ran the Steelers offense for years and has seen all of defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau's blitz packages.

That's a huge advantage.

The only situation that was remotely similar was Jon Gruden coaching the Bucs against the Raiders in the Super Bowl. Gruden knew the Raiders offense and had his team so prepared to face it, that they knew how the plays would develop before they actually did.

I could see the same thing happening here. Whisenhunt might have his offense so well prepared that they'll be able to know who's blitzing and who's dropping into coverage before they even get set at the line of scrimmage. And if the line can protect Kurt Warner, he should be able to take apart the Cover 3 and Zone Blitz looks that the Steelers favor.

One more thing: I've heard a lot about how this will basically be a home game for the Steelers because their fans travel so well. I think the large number of non-fans who go to the Super Bowl neutralize the impact of the real fans there. Again, I point to the Raiders-Bucs Super Bowl, as much as I hate to remember that game. That game was in San Diego, where there's a huge contingent of Raiders fans who show up to every Raiders-Chargers game. They had no impact on the Super Bowl whatsoever.

The Arizona Cardinals are going to the Super Bowl

2009-01-18T18:39:00.000-08:00

Clearly, I know nothing about football. I give up trying to predict what's going to happen. The 9-7 Cardinals were supposed to be the worst team in the playoffs. They scored 427 points and gave up 426 in the season. That's terrible. They played in the worst conference in football. They gave up 56 points to the Jets, 48 to the Eagles on Thanksgiving and 47 to the Patriots in December. They're not supposed to be good, let alone in the Super Bowl.

There's only one logical conclusion: everyone is lousy this year, or at least severely flawed. The Eagles were a super shaky team that alternated between overachieving and underachieving. I, along with the rest of the world, wrote them off after the Ravens loss, and they managed to sneak into the playoffs with a 9-6-1 record. This was clearly the worst NFC championship game ever.

The best team in the conference, the Giants, had a quarterback that couldn't handle the winds of the Meadowlands despite having played there all year. Go figure.

Back to the Eagles, their biggest flaw was red zone and short yardage offense. They had problems converting short yardage situations all year. Ditto for Arizona, who also couldn't play defense.

Dallas was a paper tiger with a bunch of me-first primadonnas that sank the team with whining and poor effort. They also have the most unclutch quarterback ever in Tony Romo (a great place for ribs).

Carolina had Jake Delhomme at quarterback. Nuff said.

The Falcons were just OK on defense and had a rookie quarterback who didn't vary his snap count at all in a playoff game and cost his team the game. Seriously. Arizona jumped the snap on almost every play because they knew the count. That's a huge rookie mistake.

Green Bay couldn't play fourth quarter defense. The Bears' defense was mediocre, the offense inconsistent, and the special teams just ordinary. Minnesota has Brad Childress as its coach and the Tavaris Jackson/Gus Ferotte combo at quarterback.

I could go on and on, but that's pretty much it. Every team, at least in the NFC, had one killer flaw.

Happy Birthday, Jake Delhomme!

2009-01-11T11:13:00.001-08:00

For your 34th birthday, Jake, you're getting a backup quarterback job on a new team. Not much of a present, but the demotion is certainly justified. A whopping six turnovers for a team that was favored to win its game by more than 10 points.

Jake added a meaningless touchdown pass to Steve Smith with 50 seconds left with the game out of reach.

Final stats:
C/ATT YDS AVG TD INT
J. Delhomme 17/34 205 6.0 1 5
FUM LOST REC
J. Delhomme 1 1 0

So the numbers improved slightly with that last meaningless drive, but that still should be enough to force Carolina to get a new QB in the offseason. I knew Delhomme had a bad performance in him, but I couldn't fathom that he'd crap the bed this much. His previous worst performance this year:

WEEK OPP RESULT CMP ATT YDS CMP% LNG TD INT RAT
10 @OAK W 17-6 7 27 72 25.9 27 1 4 12.3

Ouch. Not franchise QB numbers at all.

Cards-Panthers

2009-01-10T20:18:00.001-08:00

Jake Delhomme is putting on a bad performance for the ages. There's 2 minutes left in the game and these are his stats:
CP/AT YDS TD INT
J. Delhomme 14/30 171 0 5
Fumbles FUM LOST REC YDS
J. Delhomme 1 1 0 0

6 turnovers in one game. He's played his way off the team next season, that's for sure. I expect these numbers to get worse in the last two minutes. Cards are up 33-7 and Steve Smith has one catch for 35 yards. More on this game later.

dah da-da dah dah

2009-01-08T04:34:00.000-08:00

GO GATORS!!!!!!!!!!!

Miami has the Dolphins, the greatest football team?

2009-01-04T19:50:00.000-08:00

Had a big viewing party for the Dolphins-Ravens game and it ended on a down note. The Fins lost big, but I should have seen that coming. The Dolphins' offense did not match up well against the Ravens' D. Pennington had his worst game of the season and the team just couldn't get anything going until the game was out of reach. On defense, the Dolphins were solid, but they couldn't get any pressure on Joe Flacco, and the Ravens physical running game wore that defense down by the end of the game.

The Eagles won the Bad Coaches Bowl in the second game of the day. I didn't watch much of the game, but I think I can safely say that both coaches were actively trying to avoid 3rd and short because neither team has been able to convert that all season. Of course, in the Eagles' case, when you NEVER run the ball on 3rd and 1 and you always settle for these rinky dink passes in the flat, you won't have much success with short yardage conversions. While the Ravens look like a Super Bowl team, I think the Eagles still have to notch an impressive win against a team that is not fundamentally flawed (i.e. not Dallas or Minnesota).

why i don't usually comment on hockey

2009-01-03T21:26:00.001-08:00

I'm watching SportsCenter and they're showing NHL highlights where hockey star Sidney Crosby cheapshots a guy and gets into a fight. This is why I don't watch hockey. The NHL uses fights as a cheap sideshow to get people interested in the league. It's both pathetic and unprofessional. And unlike other sports where fights usually result in suspensions for the players involved, the NHL puts these guys in a penalty box for a few minutes and then lets them continue playing the game. This is why you see teams with players that have little ability save that of fighting to play the role of enforcer. If they dumped the fights, got rid of teams that don't play in cold weather states (looking right at you, Florida Panthers and LA Kings) and played more games outdoors (that visual is one of the best in sports), I'd actually start watching.

Ugh...the Colts

2009-01-03T21:08:00.000-08:00

The Falcons lost, and whatever, they weren't great on the road this year and a rookie QB starting his first playoff game on the road isn't likely to win it. The Cardinals played a better game and came out with a better gameplan, neutralizing Michael Turner and putting the game in Matt Ryan's hands.

Ok, that's out of the way. Now to the more interesting game. The Colts and the Chargers. Save for one magical post-season when their running game and defense were clicking and Peyton led a remarkable comeback against the Pats, they have had post-season letdowns every year. Losing to the Pats is one thing. Those Patriot teams had better defenses. But to lose to San Diego two years in a row, especially this year's team that was a fluky 8-8 division champ, that should have never been in the playoffs to start with, that was only in because Herm Edwards is the worst clock manager in football by far, this loss was just indefensible and inexplicable. The Colts defense, built for speed, couldn't contain Darren Sproles.

The key play of the game though had the Colts on offense. Up 17-14 and trying to grind out the clock, the Colts had a 3rd and 2 on the Indy 9 yard line. There's two options and only two in this situation: run for the 1st down or play action fake and throw for the first down. That's it. Instead, inexplicably, the Colts come out lined up with in the shotgun with an empty backfield. This is the first time I've seen them come out in that formation all year. So of course, Manning gets sacked and they're forced to punt. And that was the game.

quick NFL thoughts as we look to the playoffs

2008-12-31T16:41:00.000-08:00

- Wade Phillips, Norv Turner. They're the same coach. Two sides of the same mediocre coin. Have any coaches ever done less with more? Norv's team squeaks into the playoffs because the AFC West is terrible and Wade's team chokes in the biggest way imaginable to miss the playoffs. How does a team get waxed 44-6 in a must-win game and still keep its head coach?

- Dallas has some big time house cleaning to do. First, TO needs to go. He wasn't much of a force this year and he's too much of a headache to have so many dropped passes.

- Romo is the most anti-clutch quarterback ever. He's the A-Rod of QBs. I can't get over the sad sack look he had all throughout the second half of that Philly game.

- Who have the Chargers beaten this year? They didn't beat a single team that made the playoffs, and their win over New England came when Cassel was still getting his feet wet.

- The other thing people don't talk about with this Chargers team: Tomlinson belongs on the side of a milk carton. He's rushed for 100 yards in only two games this year. He had a very pedestrian 3.8 yards per carry this year. This team does not have a running game.

- Picks for the first round of playoffs: Miami over Baltimore, Indy over San Diego, Philly over Minnesota, and I really want to say Arizona over Atlanta but I just don't trust that Arizona can stop Michael Turner. So Atlanta over Arizona.

- For a warm weather teams, home field doesn't present that much of an advantage this time of year. Who doesn't want to play in San Diego or Miami in January when the weather is perfect? Miami has a great home field advantage in September and October when the humidity wears cold weather teams out, but later in the year, I imagine that teams must love playing in the comfortable Florida weather. Same goes for San Diego.

- Miami over Baltimore because I don't trust Joe Flacco starting his first playoff game on the road and I think Sparano and company will have enough tricks up their sleeves on offense to pull it out. 13-10, Miami over Baltimore.

- The Rat got fired in Denver. Can't say he hasn't had it coming, but it's still a huge shock. I just got used to the seeing Shanahan shrug off bad seasons and late disappointments. Denver could have kept him on if they got a new GM to help with the personnel. They've swung and missed on too many draft picks and free agent signings the past few years.

- Keep Tom Cable

- Browns, hire Scott Pioli and the one-time Mangenius to right the ship.

- I can't believe the Bills kept Dick Jauron. With Romeo and Rod Marinelli both out of work, Dick Jauron is unquestionably the worst NFL head coach. He's too conservative to be an effective coach. He punts on fourth and short at midfield, he runs when he should be passing and he has JP Losman pass when Marshawn Lynch has 127 yards on the ground and only needs a first down to ice the game. I wrote earlier about a terrible sequence he had in the Browns game. He's had one good year his entire coaching career. 7-9 the last three years, which means at least he's consistent, but I think the Bills have the talent to do better than that. They're a 10 win team with a competent coach.

- Non-football thought: For years, Pizza Hut has ignore trying to make good pizza and has instead tied its fate to the marketing of gimmick pizza (stuffed crust, Pizza Mia, etc.). Now they've decided to make a gimmick pizza that resembles good pizza. The Natural features real tomato sauce and pepperoni. What a novel concept.

Dear Sacramento Kings

2008-12-15T18:35:00.001-08:00

Dear Sacramento Kings,

Seriously? You fired Reggie Theus? Did you learn nothing from my letter to the 76ers after they fired Mo Cheeks? Don't you remember last year when Theus took a shit Kings team and made them believe that they were a darkhorse 8th seed contender for a month. Come on, Maloofs. Show some patience with your coaches. This is ridiculous. Everyone expected the Kings to suck this year, and they were just keeping with expectations. Kevin Martin, your best player, has been battling injuries all year, and despite this, your team showed up for an inspired win over the West's best, the Lakers. But one lopsided loss to a much-improved Knicks team later, and Theus is on the outs. In what sport is one and a quarter seasons enough to implement changes to turn around a losing team? None. The NBA coaching carousel has to stop unless Mike Dunleavy, a coach who's actually had time to better his team and hasn't, gets fired.

Sincerely,

The Idiot Fan

The Obligatory Baseball Post

2008-12-13T22:58:00.001-08:00

Move over Carl Pavano. There's a new worst ever Yankee contract in town. C.C. Sabathia, $161 million, 7 years, with an opt-out clause after 3 years and boy, will the Yanks fans hope that C.C. exercises that option. That would be the first bit of exercise Mr. 290 pounds has done in some time. He's a good pitcher, and I think every critic of this contract won't question that. He's a really good pitcher sometimes. But if I'm a Yankee fan, and thank god I'm not, there are a few HUGE things that worry me.

1. He was begging West Coast teams to sign him at the winter meetings after getting the Yankee's huge contract offer. He took like two weeks to sign that deal. $161 million and he took two weeks to decide on that. He has a history of pitching well in small market, no pressure teams (Cleveland, Milwaukee). He said he wasn't sure about living in New York and wanted to live and play on the West Coast.

2. Even after begging the Giants, Dodgers and Angels to sign him, no one threw him anything even close to the Yankee's offer. I can see the Dodgers and Giants being cheap, though the Dodgers could use a number one guy like C.C., but the Angels? They throw money around like there's no tomorrow. They're the Yankees of the West Coast. And nothing, no offer, nada. And C.C. wanted to play for them and probably would have taken quite a bit less to do so.

3. $161 million, 7 years. I'm sorry but no one is worth that kind of money. That's a terrible deal, anyway you slice it. I know it's the Yankees, and they have an endless supply of money with the YES network and the new stadium, but there was once a time when people wanted to play in New York. The Yankees have an unmatched history and legacy of winning. They play in the biggest market of all with the most potential for fame and endorsements. Their fans care. A lot. They shouldn't need to grossly overpay for players. Players should want to come to the Yankees and in some cases, take less money to do so because they know they'd make it back up in endorsement deals.

And then the Yanks go out and sign soon-to-be 32-year-old A.J. Burnett to a 5 year, $82.5 million deal. A.J., by the way, has only played like one complete season without being injured. He has an electric arm but can't control it. He's never had an ERA that's even close to under 3.00. Is this worth $82.5 million? Do injury-prone pitchers all of sudden become great when they hit 32? Unless A.J.'s hitting up Roger Clemens for some training and pharmaceutical advice, I don't see it happening.

And that sound you hear? That's the sound of the Red Sox and the three real Tampa Bay (Devil) Ray fans rejoicing.

Dear 76ers

2008-12-13T22:46:00.000-08:00

Dear 76ers,

What the fuck? Seriously. What the fuck is wrong with you? You fired Mo Cheeks? He's a good coach. Good enough to take a crap 76ers team last year and coach it to the playoffs. Good enough to have Philly thinking NBA Finals in the offseason this year. But not good enough to keep his job this year? Seriously? Who's better than him that's available right now? I don't see Hubie Brown making another coaching comeback. Look, you guys signed Elton Brand and you immediately started dreaming of championships. But here's the thing, Elton peaked a few years back and is coming back from Achilles surgery. He's playing with a group of guys that are not suited to his strengths and vice versa. It takes time to incorporate a new focal point to the offense. You may eventually turn it on and get it, but this kind of thing doesn't happen overnight. Also, if you were getting Elton Brand, you might have wanted to get some 3 point shooters too, so that your team could have proper floor spacing for Brand to be most effective. Right now, no one, and I mean no team in their right mind, is afraid of your perimeter players because they're all drive and kick guys and not perimeter or even mid-range shooters. Andre Miller? Nope. Andre Iguodala? Ha, are you kidding me? He's an overrated energy player that has lacked the energy ever since he got a HUGE contract in the offseason. Another brilliant move on your part, by the way. So enjoy your knee-jerk reaction. Enjoy dreams of this being a spark. In truth, you blew it with a good coach, a good person and a good teacher of the game.

Sincerely,

The Idiot Fan

P.S. Toronto Raptors management, most of the above goes for you too. Your coach was good enough to win Coach of the Year two years ago but not good enough to keep his job. Sure, your team was underachieving this year, but again, you were trying to incorporate a big piece in Jermaine O'Neal, who, by the way, doesn't run all that well after multiple injuries, and yet, here he is on a team that wants to run. I actually like Sam Mitchell's coaching replacement, so this isn't a huge loss, but let's actually give coaches some time to work here. Players can tune coaches out nowadays because they know that a coach's shelf life is only about two to three years. And you wonder why a coach loses his team.

quick thoughts as we skid towards the auto apocalypse

2008-12-11T03:59:00.000-08:00

- Poor Detroit. Their industries are in shambles, the city still has a bad rep for producing both Kid Rock and Eminem and the Lions won't win a game this year. Plus, the Pistons continue to be vastly overrated because people can't get over their perceptions of what the team was like 2 and 3 years ago. And the Tigers? Spent money that should have gone towards the auto industry on Dontrelle Willis and finished at the bottom of the AL Central below even the Kansas City Royals.

- Fire Rod Marinelli. He seems a like a good guy and is trying to get the Lions to win one game, just one game, but it's not working. His coaching background is defense and yet, the Lions are currently winless because their defense is atrocious. The offense is good enough to win 4 or 5 games, but opposing quarterbacks and running backs have career days against this team.

- The Lakers have problems on defense. They started out the season defending so well that everyone just assumed this was a strength. It's not. Not yet, anyway. They've given up 100 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games and the only game they played stingy defense was against lowly Milwaukee.

- Which brings me to this point: the Bucks are a terrible team. Have they quit on Scott Skiles already?

- The Jets have peaked and have gone from lock to make the playoffs to probably not making the playoffs in the span of two losses. They looked like the best team in the AFC after beating the Titans, but back-to-back losses to Denver and (gasp!) San Francisco have this team and its fans reeling.

- Welcome to the bottom, Chargers. Let me tell you, as a Raiders fan, after a while you get used to it and come to accept that you won't win a thing.

NBA ceilings/basements vol. 2 - the east

2008-12-03T18:47:00.000-08:00

How the East could be won or lost:

1. Boston Celtics - I've been thinking a lot about this team lately. They're getting the tough part of their schedule out of the way early with all the back to backs they've been playing. They look a little more beatable this year than last, but a favorable schedule down the stretch will help them immensely. A few things about this team:

a) Garnett has slipped, at least on the offensive end. It's noticeable. He relies on his jumper a lot more than in past years.
b) Garnett hasn't slipped on defense. And he still scares everyone on the court with his intensity and forces this team to play good defense.
c) The Celtics take pride in their D much like Detroit did under Larry Brown. Every guy on this team wants to shut down the other team. Every guy wants to grab a rebound or fight for the loose ball.
d) I'd be thinking so much about the age of the Big Three and looking for signs of slipping that I completely overlooked the possibility that Rajon Rondo could turn into a consistent All-Star caliber point guard. He's not there yet, but if he gets there, that extends the championship window for this team by a couple years.

Bottom line: This team is a lock for at least the Eastern Conference Finals and probably the NBA Finals.

2. Cleveland Cavaliers - They're better this year. They're going to win 60 unless LeBron gets hurt. They should steamroll their way to an Eastern Conference Finals matchup with the Celtics. Here's why I don't think they'll beat the Celtics. Who's the second banana on this team? Obviously, LeBron runs the show, but who's the other guy that teams gameplan for? If you take LeBron out of the game, which the Celtics and the Pistons have done in the past, who beats you? The team is LeBron, who's the best player in the league and it isn't even close (sorry, Kobe), and a bunch of good role players. But MJ had Pippen, Shaq had Kobe and then Wade, Garnett has Pierce and Ray Allen, Duncan had Robinson and later, Ginobili and Parker, Kobe has Bynum and Gasol, and so on. You need at least two to win in this league. If they swing a blockbuster deal that doesn't involve Vince Carter (too selfish), they could move up. Otherwise, they'll be Boston's second banana.

3. Detroit Pistons.......nah...not this year, too soon. Orlando Magic - Enjoy being three. Even Dwight Howard making the leap won't bump this team up past Boston and Cleveland. In order to make the leap from very good to consistently great, Howard has to up his free throw percentage, develop a credible short jumper or jump hook and become a more physical defender with a mean streak. Another 50 win season looks to be a lock. Orlando's a well-coached team with good shooters, a vastly underrated point guard in Jameer Nelson and some decent depth in the bench. They should handle all but two teams in the East.

4. Detr....nope. Toronto Raptors - Bosh and I think O'Neal has enough in the tank for a good playoff run. Calderon is the best pure point guard in the East. They've got enough good shooters to force teams to respect the 3 point shot. Their fans are some of the best in the NBA. Just a lot of fun to watch. Bosh could make the jump to an elite player and carry them through a couple of playoff series. Playing against Howard in the playoffs last year hopefully made both players tougher and better all around. Update: Wait, what? They just fired their coach? That could change everything.

5. Detroit Pistons - This feels right. I'd hate to be a Pistons fan right now and have to talk myself into thinking Iverson could be the key to this team. A few things:

a) Seriously, the Pistons gave up on this year to try and get LeBron in two years? That's what it sounds like. Why would LeBron leave a better team in Cleveland, a city that worships him by the way, to go to a worse team in uber-unglamourous Detroit? There's no way this happens.

b) R.I.P. Rip Hamilton as an effective player for 82 games. Without Chauncey to dish the ball to him, Rip looks a little lost. Iverson and Stuckey eat into his minutes and neither knows him as well as Chauncey did.

c) They traded a pretty good point guard who could run their offense, hit a few big shots and defend pretty well for A.I., a guy who needs the ball to be effective, takes too many shots and can't defend. Have I mentioned that I hate this trade for the Pistons?

6. Atlanta Hawks - Here's a new gimmick for an NBA team: Let's play a season without a bench. Their starters can hang with anyone, and it looks like Horford's going from good to very good this year, but they've got cobwebs and tumbleweed on that bench. Maurice Evans? Flip Murray? Egads.

7. The New York Knicks - I'm a homer. They play their hearts out. David Lee is perfect for D'Antoni and Duhon just set the single game assist record. They'll be a first round out, but they'll get there.

8. Miami Heat - D-Wade. Nuff said.

9. Indiana Pacers - Young team showing some spunk. I don't know what to make of them. I like Granger and I like Jim O'Brien. Maybe this team has a surprise playoff run in it.

10. Philadelphia 76ers - What's the difference between the 76ers and the Bucks or the Bulls or any other East team with one good player and a bunch of ok guys? The burden of expectations. No one thinks much of the other teams, but everyone had Philly penciled in for the playoffs. Well, not me. The Brand signing slowed down their run and gun helter skelter style that made them successful last year. Louis Williams is no longer a microwave off the bench. There's a potential "Brand suffers bad injury and the team makes an improbable playoff run" lurking in their season. But that shouldn't be the ceiling of a team that had conference final aspirations.

11. Chicago Bulls - So much first round talent and nothing to show for it. Another lottery trip means another chance to get lucky with a blue-chipper. Derrick Rose will have this team in the playoffs in the next few years, providing their coach learns how to coach.

12. New Jersey Nets - Vince Carter is making a strong play for another team to make a mistake and acquire him in a midseason trade. NBA fool's gold. Note to Cavs: Don't be fooled.

13. Milwaukee Bucks - Defensive coach tries to get uncommitted players to play defense. Hilarity ensues. If only.

14. Charlotte Bobcats - Defensive coach tries to get uncommitted players to play defense. Hilarity ensues. If only. I sense a pattern at the bottom here. Why tie so much money with J-Rich, Okafor, and Gerald Wallace? Does anyone think this is a core that can bring Charlotte a championship? Obviously the answer is no. So why did they do it? If you can answer that, you too could run the Charlotte Bobcats.

15. There's a worse team than Charlotte? Ah, right, the Washington Wizards. They actually should be better than what they've shown so far. They have a couple of good scorers in Jamison and Butler. When/if Agent Zero comes back, at least one paper, they would have a good trio. But yet again, here's a team that invested big bucks in a core that has shown they can't win it all.

What's wrong with the Oakland Raiders

2008-11-23T13:16:00.001-08:00

Their owner, for one. Their problems stem from the very top. It's not a coincidence that the two of the teams without GMs have lousy teams. The Raiders don't have any consistency. Head coaches come and go every two years and they shift offensive philosophies too often to find a rhythm on offense. On defense, they've actually had some consistency, but the defensive coach is terrible. To quote Oakland fans: "Rob Ryan sucks." There's no other way around it. He's had players to work with. Here's how the Raiders lose:

1. They don't show up and get blown out.
2. They keep it close, but adventures in officiating go against them and they don't have the resolve to recover.
3. They keep the game close, maybe kick a field goal to take the lead or tie the game, and their defense gives up a last minute drive and the winning points.

I don't know this for sure, but I think the Raiders must have lost more games by last second field goals and touchdowns than any other team in the last five years. And that's on Rob Ryan. When the team needs a stop, he can't deliver. They make stupid mistakes in key situations, whether it's a pass interference penalty, lining up offside or getting a stupid personal foul penalty. Then there's the coverage. Rob Ryan says he doesn't play a prevent defense. But he does play a zone defense that involves the corners keeping the ball in front of them, designed to stop big plays but allow short chunks of yardage. This is a prevent defense. It never works. Why go away from the defensive scheme that kept the game close in the first place?

So what can Al Davis do to clean it up? In no particular order:

1. Fire Rob Ryan.
2. Let Tom Cable go back to coaching the offensive line. This has been their biggest area of weakness for a while, but they played reasonably well last year when Cable was just focusing on coaching the O-Line.
3. Get a GM. Give him the authority to shape the team.
4. Get rid of the overpaid, underperforming players. It's a lot of them, but they need to clean house.
5. Hire a coach and stick with him. Don't undermine him at all. Give him at least three years to build a winning program. Don't panic at the first 4-12 season. This team sucks and that's going to happen.
6. Don't draft cornerbacks or safeties. Draft offensive linemen. Draft defensive linemen.
7. Get a couple of decent wide receivers to help JaMarcus in the passing game.
8. Develop JaMarcus Russell. Run McFadden a lot more. Make him the centerpiece of the offense.

It's a lot to do, but look at the Dolphins as an example of what competent management can do for a team. In one year, they've made one of the most dramatic turnarounds and have gone from worst in the league to in contention for a playoff spot.

Is it Donovan McNabb or Andy Reid?

2008-11-23T13:04:00.000-08:00

McNabb has been stinking up the joint recently for the Eagles, but don't let Andy Reid off the hook either. Look at this line here:

PHI2 M.Stover extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Katula, Holder-S.Koch.

2-1 BAL1 (7:44) K.Kolb pass short middle intended for D.Jackson INTERCEPTED by E.Reed at BAL -8. E.Reed for 108 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

1-1 BAL1 (8:20) K.Kolb up the middle to BAL 1 for no gain (T.Suggs).

So say you're playing your young backup quarterback on the road against one of the best defenses in the league. Say you manage to drive to the goal line and are sitting at 1st and goal from the one. Don't you just run it up the gut four straight times? Odds favor a touchdown in that situation. But Andy decides to throw, and well, you can see the result above.

This is part of a bigger problem that the Eagles have had for the better part of five years now. They don't have a short yardage back for these situations. They have Westbrook, who's one of the most versatile and talented running backs in the league, but he's not a big guy that can get the extra yard. How they didn't draft or sign a big running back the last few years is beyond absurd. This is a solid team all around that has had one huge glaring hole. Of course, Andy Reid refuses to run the ball in obvious running situations, so maybe they thought it would be money wasted to go after a short yardage guy.

What's wrong with the Cincinnati Bengals

2008-11-22T10:44:00.000-08:00

Surely, every NFL team believes they can at least compete at the start of every season, but do they still think that by the middle of the season? In the case of the Bengals, it doesn't appear so. So where did it go wrong for a team that was at least supposed to have an explosive offense this year? Why can't Marvin Lewis get a good defense after coaching the Ravens Super Bowl D? It all goes back to their personnel moves of the last few years. Look, everyone that's even sort of followed this team knows what they've needed for the last few years: Offensive line depth, defensive line starters, linebackers, tight ends, safeties, running back depth. That's a lot of needs for a team. They've only sort of addressed linebackers out of that group. They made half-hearted attempts to address the safety position. Instead, they've inexplicably drafted wide receivers and cornerbacks. They cut Willie Anderson and Rudi Johnson in the offseason without bringing in suitable replacements, thus killing their depth in two key areas.

They seriously thought that Chris Perry, who's never played a full season in the NFL, could carry the load this year, and he proved them wrong. At one point, they cut Kenny Watson, who was their best back last year, and is a servicable third down back and good receiver out of the backfield. Now they're relying on Chicago cast-off Cedric Benson. Mike Lombardi of the National Football Post says Benson doesn't hit the hole with any kind of power or burst. Lombardi's right. The evidence is in the game film. He's not a good back. Rudi, meanwhile, has looked decent at times for the Lions, who are the worst team in football.

But he could be servicable if the offensive line wasn't a mess. They cut Willie Anderson, who was a good right tackle for them for years. Not only that, he was a mentor to Levi Jones and the rest of the guys on the line. They let Eric Steinbach leave in free agency a couple years back. He's young and a pretty good guard. The offensive line is the most important part of a football team. I think even if they had kept the line that had led them to the playoffs, they should have been drafting at least one lineman a year to bolster their depth.

They haven't had a good defensive line in years. Again, how about drafting some pass rushers that don't get arrested. They need a big body in the middle of that defense to occupy blockers and stop the run. They need a strong safety that can play in the box and bring the hammer down. They've done nothing to address this.

At tight end, they've let great rookies pass them by. A good blocking tight end would help their line and a pass catcher would give the offense an added dimension. They could line up in with a singleback, 3 WR, 1 TE formation and do a lot of damage in both the passing and running game if they had the pieces.

It's going to take a good couple years of drafting and smart free agent signings for this team to be competitive again. They have a lot of holes on both sides of the ball. They need a GM to help with this and they need to devote more resources to scouting. Marvin Lewis also needs to go. The Bengals need a fresh start. Unfortunately, their ownership hasn't shown much inclination to devote the resources necessary to put a winning team together in many years. Aside from two mediocre years and one good one, this has been a terrible team for the better part of the decade. Like the Raiders and the Lions, the problems with the Bengals stem from the very top of the organization and until they change course, they'll continue to be bottom-feeders.

Good God, the Celtics OWN the Pistons

2008-11-20T20:16:00.000-08:00

Celtics 94, Pistons 80. Ouch. Looks like AI is making no difference early on.

NBA ceilings/basements vol. 1 - the west

2008-11-19T19:16:00.000-08:00

How the West could be won or lost:

1. LA Lakers - Their ceiling is the highest of all teams. They look like they could win 70+ and run amok in the playoffs en route to an NBA championship. Their basement isn't too bad either. It would take a catastrophic series of injuries to keep them out of the playoffs, and as we've seen in the past, Kobe, Odom and scrubs is good enough for at least a seventh seed, which is their basement right now.

2. New Orleans Hornets - They could go to the Finals if the Lakers get hit with injuries and no one else (Utah, Houston) steps up their games. Look, I love Chris Paul. I think he's the best point guard in the game since Magic and the best pure point since Isiah. But I get the feeling that the rest of the team had career years and played above their ability last year and are falling back to Earth this year. I'm still not sold on David West being a big factor come playoff time. Worst case scenario, Paul gets injured and they don't make the playoffs. If they had one more competent big, I could see them doing real damage in the playoffs. Of course, if Chris Paul turns in an Oscar Robertson season, all bets are off and their ceiling goes way up.

3. Utah Jazz - Again, they could be in the Finals if the breaks go their way or end up as a 5th or 6th seed if Deron Williams gets hurt again. That's not bad for a team. Their basement isn't very low and this is a very talented team with a good bench and a great coach that forces them to play disciplined basketball night in and night out.

4. San Antonio Spurs - Do they have one more Finals run in them with this core? Yes. Can they be a top seed? Probably not because of the injuries to Parker and Ginobili. Will they miss the playoffs? No. They're going to be a very dangerous 3rd or 4th seed in the playoffs and at worst, an absolutely deadly 6th seed. No one will want to see these guys in round 1.

5. Houston Rockets - Overrated? Yes. Yao's going to get hurt. This always happens. McGrady's already hurt again and he's lost a step. I think he might be done. Maybe it's just the knee injury, but he couldn't blow by anybody this year and was shooting terribly. Sad to see that Artest joins the Rockets just in time to see them turn into the Sacramento Kings. Let's see, underachieving coach? Check, Rick Adelman to boot. High expectations never met? Check. People were all over this team in the preseason because they look great on paper. On the court is a different story altogether.

6. Portland Trailblazers - Oh, who cares where these guys finish, this is such a fun team to watch. Oden plodding around, while Fernandez and Roy make the game beautiful. Seriously though, if this team matures and Oden starts delivering, they can be this year's Hornets. I could see them getting to the second round of the playoffs, especially if they draw a weaker team like the Mavs or the Rockets in the first round. The bottom, of course, is missing the playoffs, but I don't see that happening.

7. Phoenix Suns - Another "on paper" team. Shaq, Amare, Nash, Grant Hill. This should be enough except three of those guys are well over 30 and Amare has a history of knee injuries. Plus, they willing got rid of a great coach and replaced him with a mixed bag coach. Not good, Phoenix. Nash had a telling quote recently saying that the Suns couldn't run with Utah when they got out on the break. Imagine that, the Suns can't run with other teams now. They peak with a 5th seed. Amare might be enough to get them in the playoffs, but their championship window closed last year.

8. Dallas Mavericks - They're done. Their window was slammed shut by D-Wade and the Heat in game three a few years back and then it was boarded up by Golden State upsetting them in the first round two years ago. Dirk lost his confidence and stopped sneering after big shots. Worse yet, he stopped taking and making big shots. He defers in key situations now. Teams have figured out how to defend him. Jason Terry and old man Stackhouse are the "game on the line" shot guys. That's a terrible situation. Jason Kidd has lost about five steps and can't defend any point guard. Their center position is a mess with two overpaid guys that both can't score and draw too many fouls. And Josh Howard is a scapegoat for admitting to smoking pot. Well, wouldn't you smoke pot if this was your team? Their basement is out of the playoffs which I think is likely. Oh, and they still have Devean George.

9. Denver Nuggets - The Iverson-Billups trade rejuvenated this team and fixed one of their biggest issues. Now they have a real point guard running the show and Melo can be the big scoring guy again. Their defense is a little better, but they're not getting out on the break as much as they did last year. Their ceiling is still a first round elimination unless they draw Houston. I don't think Nene and K-Mart are enough in the front court. They need one more big guy. Too bad it wasn't McDyess.

10. Golden State Warriors - Let's not kid ourselves. This team is not making the playoffs. Without Baron, they don't have anyone that scares another team. They might contend for the 8th seed playing Nellieball, but even if they get in, they'll be out in 4 games. Their basement is finishing under 500.

11. LA Clippers - Not making the playoffs. That's their ceiling and their basement and everything in between. This is one of those teams that you look at, and on paper, they look good enough that maybe you talk yourself into thinking that they could sneak up on some teams and steal a playoff spot. No, they can't. Tim Thomas and Ricky Davis on the same team, Dunleavy's the coach, and Baron already says their not on the same page. The Clippers are always in the Lottery, yet they never win.

12. Sacramento Kings - Where do you think their ceiling is? Not very high? Right. Ok. Move right along then. Oh, right the basement. Well, they'll get used to that. This team isn't very good and won't even sniff the playoffs. But at least they'll get a high draft pick. Maybe somebody told the Maloofs that the NBA Lottery is like gambling and they decided that's where they want to be.

13. Minnesota Timberwolves - Fun, young team that is still a few years away from contending. They might finish ahead of the Clippers and the Kings but they'll be well out of contention.

14. Memphis Grizzlies - See Minnesota Timberwolves entry.

15. That team that plays in Oklahoma City - You know the one. Their ceiling is also their basement. Gets cramped down there. They'll be the worst team in the West. Durant and Green will take the next steps and it won't be enough. There's nothing around these guys. They might be the worst team in the entire NBA. They are basically a bench and 3 starters away from contending. Think about that. That's pretty much the entire team. This team is an entire team away from contending. It's an absurd statement, but it's true. If only they could steal a good NBA team and move it to Okie Dokie City and give it a generic Arena Football team name.

How the Celtics could win it all or come up short

2008-11-19T18:57:00.000-08:00

The Celtics will win it all if their core is healthy for the playoffs and no one slips, even just a bit. Keep in mind, their core is the Big Three and they are all past the big 3-0. KG is 32 and has played more than 1,000 career games, all at his ridiculously high intensity level. I don't care who you are, but eventually it burns you out. He never takes a minute off when he's on the court. Pierce is a 31 year old wingman, and as with all wingmen, they rely on a good first step to get to the basket. If he loses that, he turns into a jump shooter, and while Pierce is a good one, the Celtics need him to be a slasher, a creator and a finisher. Ray Allen is 33 with a history of injuries. Of the three, he can most afford to lose a step since his game is less slashing and more spot up shooting. So far, it doesn't look like any of them have slipped at all. It's entirely possible that KG just simply will not let them take a play off.

Why I'm the Idiot Fan

2008-11-17T21:10:00.000-08:00

A couple of addendums to previous posts. I somehow forgot Jerry Sloan when I mentioned great NBA coaches. He's definitely one of them. Utah's got a good team, but you put Flip Saunders as the head coach, and that team goes nowhere fast. If I had to rank the top coaches, I'd probably put Pop at the top, Phil next, then Sloan, then D'Antoni, Doc and Larry Brown. Nate McMillan can make the leap this year if his Blazers show something in the playoffs. He did coach a surprisingly feisty Sonics team a few years back, but I need more than just one good run to be convinced.

Also, in my How to Win in Football post, obviously the surefire way to win every game is, in the words of the immortal John Madden, to score more points than the other team. I wanted to add that the running and stopping the run teams often have problems playing each other. In those matchups, the team with the better QB or the better pass defense usually wins out, so basically, the Vikings can't win when they go up against a team that is like them. They also can't win because their coach doesn't know how to do his job, but that's for another post. Actually, you can take my post about Dick Jauron and replace the Bills and Dick Jauron with Brad Childress and the Vikings and you'll get my exact thoughts on that coach.

Dick Jauron will never win in the NFL

2008-11-17T20:54:00.000-08:00

I'm typing this as I watch the Bills throw their season away. The Bills made a dramatic comeback from 13 down at one point to take a one-point lead. The Browns were playing a prevent defense and it looked like they were ready to pack it in for the third straight game. Then Brady Quinn leads a decent drive to get them in position for a long field goal and Dawson delivers a 57 yarder that would have been good from 60 for the Browns. But the Browns squib the kick and the Bills get great field position. First play, Trent Edwards throws a 22 yard strike to Robert Royal to get the Bills to the outer range of field goal position. So what does Dick Jauron do? Stay with Edwards to try to get closer into field goal range since a 50 yarder is no sure thing? Mix run and pass so that play action becomes viable? Or go ultraconservative, play not to lose and run dive plays three straight times to gain 4 more yards? Come on, you know which one it is. This is Dick Jauron's MO. How can a coach settle for a 47 yard field goal when there was a minute left before the dive plays? Go for the touchdown. Be bold. Go for the win. A 47 yard field goal into the wind is a sure thing? Unbelievable. Sorry Bills fans, but this is your coach. He's not bold. He doesn't go for the win. He lets his foot off the gas. I can keep throwing around cliches, but we all know the truth: Dick Jauron is too afraid of making mistakes to win football games consistently.

If you're a fan of football, you have to be disgusted with the way both teams handled the end of the games. Sure, the Browns won, but Romeo Crennel got away with one. You can't rely on 57 yard field goals to win games. Again, you have time to win the game. Mix run AND pass. In his case, he had three timeouts. They had a chance to make their possession the last one and have Dawson kick from much closer in. Marcus Stroud was a couple inches away from getting a hand on the 57 yarder. And then to squib the kickoff? Have faith in your special teams, Romeo. It's highly unlikely that they would give up two special teams touchdowns. On the other side, what more can you say about Dick Jauron's spineless performance? At least Romeo had Quinn trying to get a first down before the long field goal attempt. Welcome back to last place in the AFC East, Buffalo. How's Miami looking from down there?

How to win in football

2008-11-15T17:52:00.000-08:00

1. Run the ball, stop the run. Sounds simple, but only a few do it well. This formula almost guarantees a winning season unless your pass defense is terrible (see Minnesota Vikings of recent years). This is old Bear Bryant style football. Line up your big guys and maul the other guys on offense. Run the ball in any situation. Never give up on the run (looking at you, Norv Turner). Your quarterback usually isn't spectacular but is credible with his play-action fakes, can throw a decent deep ball to open things up and avoids critical turnovers. On defense, get a big mountain of man that can tackle and has some burst at the snap and line him up in the middle. Get a big middle linebacker that can take on blockers and at least one quick outside linebacker to contain the outside. The Tennessee Titans have done this to perfection so far this year and the Ravens, Steelers, Giants and this year's Alabama Crimson Tide are good examples of how this formula can be very successful.

Downsides: not many. If this type of team runs into an explosive offense, they may find themselves behind early and be forced to pass more than they'd like.

2. Defense and Special Teams turnovers/scores. This doesn't work as consistently as some of the other ways, but in this formula, you rely on an opportunistic defense to create turnovers and a quick returner on special teams to set up most of the offensive scores. Virginia Tech and the Buffalo Bills rely on this formula.

Downsides: A lot. A smart team won't turn the ball over. Special teams provide a nice boost, but they usually can't win a team on their own. Again, look at the Bills and VaTech for proof.

3. Offensive blitzkrieg. See Indianapolis Colts, Greatest Show on Turf Rams, last year's New England Patriots, 2002 Oakland Raiders, 1990s Florida Gators. These teams score early and often, usually with an overwhelming passing game, relying on smart QBs, quick receivers, and running backs that can catch and run. By scoring a lot, they effectively take away an opponent's running game, leaving the defensive ends to focus squarely on sacking the QB. Look at these teams' defenses and you'll usually find light, quick defensive ends and good, opportunistic corners.

Downsides: A good running team can control the clock and take the opposing team's offense out of their rhythm. Light, quick defensive ends are great for attacking the QB but not so good at stopping the run.

4. The complete team. Hard to say if this has ever happened in the NFL. This team can do all of the above three and has no discernable weaknesses. They can run up and down the field, they can play ball control and they can use their special teams to manufacture turnovers. USC in Matt Leinart's first two years starting had a team that approached this level of play. The Florida Gators are the only team this year that has played like this and it shows in their final scores.

Downsides: None, except that it is incredibly difficult to play at this level for an entire season.

A coach makes all the difference

2008-11-14T20:54:00.000-08:00

I've long maintained that there are only a handful of good coaches in the NBA and a ton of mediocre to lousy ones. The good: Phil Jackson, Gregg Popovich, Mike D'Antoni, Larry Brown (despite his turn with the Knicks), Doc Rivers (I can't believe I'm typing this, but he sort of owned Phil Jackson in the Finals last season), Byron Scott and holy crap, that's it. There's six and one of them (Larry Brown) loses motivation easily. Byron makes the cut because he got the Nets to back-to-back Finals and pushed the Spurs to six in one of those, and the Hornets looked like a well-prepared team every game last season. Doc finally settled on a rotation and won a championship, so he's in. Of the others, only Mike D'Antoni hasn't won a championship or coached an NBA Finals game. But that's more the product of shaky officiating and bad luck. His Phoenix teams were consistently competitive in the playoffs despite key injuries to people like Joe Johnson and Amare Stoudmire. The other often overlooked culprit in the Suns supposed failure (how any team that consistently wins at least 55 games is considered a failure is beyond me) is that they have a terrible owner who was so desperate to not pay the luxury tax that he gave away Kurt Thomas and frequently sold draft picks. Had he kept them, the Suns may have had a bench that included Andre Iguodala and Ben Gordon. Seriously, if they kept their drafts picks and hit 50% on them, D'Antoni would still be coaching the Suns.

That said, one of my predictions for this year is that the Knicks will make the playoffs and D'Antoni is the number one reason why. The Knicks look incredible this year. They're playing unselfish basketball. This hasn't happened since the Jeff Van Gundy years. And the style of play is a joy to watch. Rucker Park brought to the Garden. Jamal Crawford is lights out all of a sudden. Nate Robinson is the new Microwave. Zach Randolph gives a shit again. And look who's on the bench: undertalented, overrated malcontent Stephon Marbury and overweight, out of shape, lazy, defenseless, clumsy Eddy Curry. D'Antoni knows these two are worthless and his team is proving him right.

There's a recent precedent for a good coach taking a lousy to mediocre team to the playoffs: Hubie Brown and the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizz had a long history of being lousy until Hubie came in. Hubie taught them how to play defense and the Grizzlies made the playoffs two straight years.

Another team to watch this year is Charlotte. Slowly but surely, that team will learn how to play defense, learn how to box out on rebounds, learn how to play team basketball under Larry Brown. They may not make the playoffs this year, but if Larry stays motivated, they'll be angling for a low seed in the playoffs next year.

A few more NBA thoughts

2008-11-11T04:03:00.001-08:00

Contemplating the NBA while getting ready for the real job:

1. These young players are the truth: Al Horford, Andrew Bynum, Rudy Gay (has the potential to be an unstoppable scorer), Nate Robinson (the new microwave), Derrick Rose, O.J. Mayo (his name is too good to fail), Brandon Roy, Rudy Fernandez, pretty much the entire Blazers team, Glen "Big Baby" Davis. There are more, but it's early and I can't think straight.

2. These youngins are what you think they are: Carl Landry (one-year wonder), Greg Oden (great defender when healthy, never healthy), O.J. Mayo (streak shooter, hey I like the guy, but he was streaky in college), Joakim Noah (on the wrong team, can we get him on the Knicks? He was born to play for D'Antoni), Ty Thomas (tantalizing potential that may never be realized), Yi Jianlian (looks great against a chair; against people, not so much).

3. Can Udonis Haslem get some love for doing the dirty work on what might be the most undersized front-line in basketball? The Heat don't have a starter taller than 6-9, and Udonis move to center (his college position) to give the Heat some muscle in the middle.

The NBA is back and so am I

2008-11-10T19:38:00.001-08:00

Quick NBA predictions for the year so you can see how wrong I was later on:

1. The Lakers will win the NBA title. Seriously, it's the same team that went to the Finals last year, but they have Bynum healthy, Odom as a sixth man and the whole team caring about defense.
2. The Celtics will not make it back to the NBA Finals. One of the Big Three will get hurt. Playing the law of averages here with three players that are older than 30 and have logged a ton of games and minutes in their careers.
3. Greg Oden will finally score a point in a regular season game, but he's going to be a non-factor for most of the season. Sorry, Portland. Your big man is a big injury waiting to happen.
4. That team that plays in Oklahoma City will finish with the worst record and not win the lottery because they are doomed to fail by their terrible karma. They will never win anything in Oklahoma City.
5. Houston will be a popular pick to do damage in the playoffs but won't get past the first round. Again.
6. The Heat and the Knicks will both make the playoffs, and they'll both be a lot of fun to watch.
7. Say goodbye to the playoffs, Dallas Mavericks. You had a good run while it lasted. Quick rundown of their problems: Dirk has no heart, Kidd can't defend quicker guards (i.e. CP3, D-Will, Tony Parker, Steve Nash, hell, even Jordan Farmar), they have no killer to take over the end of the game, Erick Dampier is in the middle (speaking of no heart), they overpaid for DeSagana Diop (an ok defender, but a foul machine and he can't score) , Josh Howard isn't comfortable in Dallas anymore, and Jerry Stackhouse is about 8 years past his prime.
8. LeBron will set the record for holy shit moments in an NBA season not featuring Michael Jordan. Expect a few 40-10-10 games and maybe even a 50-10-10 game if his teammates are up to par.
9. The Cavs will be in the NBA Finals.
10. Bynum destroying the Big Z will be the last moment of the NBA Finals, moreso than the Kobe-LeBron matchup, which will be a toss-up edging slightly towards LeBron. But seriously, the best young big in the league going up against an aging, slow as molasses white center? not even close.

The state of the NBA

2008-03-09T15:16:00.000-07:00

I've tried telling people that don't watch professional basketball this, but it seems too out there for them. The NBA is actually awesome this year. Seriously. Better than maybe even football this year. The league is filled with a good collection of uber-talented players and good guys, young stars on the rise and old tigers trying to stay relevant. This year is completely unpredictable. This is easily the best NBA season in 10 years. You'd have to go back to the early 90s to find a season this good. Back then you had Jordan's Bulls, Ewing's Knicks, Barkley's Suns, Payton and Kemp in Seattle, the Mailman and Stockton in Utah, Run TMC in Golden State and Mr. Drexler/Dr. Clyde in Portland, and the Dream in Houston. By comparison this season we have Kobe's Lakers, Chris Paul and the surprising Hornets, the Big Three in Boston, Baron and Jax and Monta and Nellie running til they drop in Golden State, the Run and Gun in Phoenix, Dirk Diggler and the Mavs, Duncan and Manu in San Antonio, Boozer and Deron Williams in Utah, Superman in Orlando, Yao (Ow!) and T-Mac in Houston, Melo and Iverson in Denver and of course, LBJ willing the Cavs to the playoffs.

Here's what we know: the East is lousy, except for Boston, Detroit, Orlando, Cleveland and sometimes Toronto; the West is awesome, except for the Clippers, Minnesota, Sacramento, Seattle and Memphis.

That said, Boston or Cleveland could still come out of the East and win the NBA title. Not incredibly likely, especially in Cleveland's case, but not impossible. As long as LeBron is healthy, the Cavs have a chance to beat anybody. He's the rare super-hyped athlete that has exceeded expectations. He's that good. No team wants to play him in the playoffs.

And he might not even win MVP. Kobe Bryant has been playing like a man who can sense a championship ever since the trade for Pau Gasol, but even before that, he had started playing with more maturity than ever before. He's a terror on the defensive end for the first time in a good five years.

Then there's Chris Paul, who is the point guard in the league and is nearly unguardable. He's averaging a double-double and is the main reason New Orleans has a good basketball team.

All of this adds up to the most exciting buildup to the playoffs in a long time. Even in the East, watching perennial losers like the Atlanta Hawks try to make the playoffs is fun. The Hawks have a fun team to watch with players like Al Horford, Joe Johnson and Josh Smith. Horford has been a monster for them. I like Chicago even though their record stinks. I think they're better than that. If Deng ever comes around, they could be a tough matchup for anyone. Joakim Noah's been a rebounding force for them. Look at the core in Portland: Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Greg Oden when he returns next year.

For a league that has been boring and predictable, defined by selfish play and thuggish behavior on and off the court, this season has been a revelation. The NBA can be fun. Basketball can be beautiful. It is essentially the American version of futbol, creating beautiful art in motion with the hands instead of the feet.

when people say sports don't matter...

2008-03-02T06:58:00.000-08:00

...they're wrong. Case in point, the outcry of angry and sad Seattle fans as they realize they're going to lose their beloved SuperSonics. Bill Simmons of ESPN.com has ask that people send their thoughts on the Sonics moving to him. It's a good look into the soul of sports fans and into how much sports really means to people.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/080229&sportCat=nba

The painfully quick fall of the Miami Heat

2008-02-05T18:53:00.000-08:00

We all knew this was coming. The Heat's championship was a one and done deal. Riles made a Faustian deal to get a championship to Miami. He violated sports karma by forcing out a very good coach in Stan Van Gundy so that Riles could claim the glory of bringing the first NBA title to Miami. He got an aging Shaquille O'Neal, teamed him with Dwayne Wade, and surrounded those two with aging role players like Alonzo Mourning, Antoine Walker, James Posey and Jason Williams. There were no long term prospects for this team. They traded whatever future they may have had with Caron Butler and Lamar Odom for quick results. And they got it. So every move they made to get to that championship is justified. But now we're seeing the consequences of those deals. Shaq has a bum hip and is a shadow of himself. Wade is constantly injured from driving recklessly to the basket, yet he's the only consistently good player on the team. Udonis Haslem, the other promising young talent on the team, is out with an ankle injury. Jason Williams, when he's healthy, is streaky at best, both as a passer and a shooter. Posey's gone and with him any semblance of defensive intensity on the team. Walker's gone, but that's actually a good thing. This team would be much worse with him. The Heat are finally getting a look at Dorrell Wright, but he doesn't seem to be all that good right now.

The Heat, two years removed from an NBA title, one year removed from a playoff appearance, are the worst team in basketball. They haven't won 10 games yet. They get blown out by mediocre teams like the Toronto Raptors. The Heat have lost 19 of their last 20 games, and three of those losses have been by 30 points. There's no other way around it: this team stinks.

It's amazing that any team with Dwayne Wade could be this bad. Even when he scores 40 points, they lose. There is no talent around him at all. And now this: the Heat may trade Shaq for Marcus Banks and Shawn Marion and strangely, this deal doesn't look like the Heat getting 20 cents on the dollar. I mean Marcus Banks and Shawn Marion for one of the greatest centers of all time? Marcus Banks being mentioned in a trade deal with Shaq? This is how far Shaq has fallen. Maybe a trade to Phoenix will buy his career an extra year or two, but it's hard to see him fitting in with the running and gunning style of the Suns.

For the Heat, the deal means potentially starting from scratch, albeit scratch that includes one of the league's best players (when he's healthy) in Wade. The deal would give them salary cap relief and flexibility. They could then blow the money on bad pickups, as has been their history (Shaq aside) or they can use the draft to add young talent and pick up role players at bargain prices to surround the nucleus of Wade and Haslem. While they're getting rid of overpaid talent, they should consider dumping Ricky Davis, the classic good player on a bad team who never makes his bad team good, and Mark Blount, who fluctuates between completely useless and somewhat competent.

The Raiders Situation

2008-01-26T11:10:00.000-08:00

I don't know what to believe on the ongoing Raiders-Kiffin saga. Do they want him gone or not? He won't comment and the Raiders deny the reports. It's a question of who do I trust less, rumor-passing sports reporters or the most secretive sports franchise in the America. I'm hoping the Raiders are right and they aren't firing Kiffin, who did a great job in his first year as a head coach anywhere, and showed he can manage a game and instill a good offensive system. Rob Ryan needs to go because in four years with the team, the Raiders haven't improved on defense, save one fluke year when teams didn't try to score on them because the Raiders offense was so horrible. Then again, it could be that Al Davis insists on playing man to man defense as other people have reported, and his defensive coordinator has no say over his own part of the team. I really don't want this to be true because it'll validate what everyone has said about Davis. It will also mean that Davis has to go for the good of the team. And that's the saddest thing about this whole mess. Davis has been a brilliant football mind for so long and has done more to push civil rights in football than any other owner (including Dan Rooney of the Rooney Rule fame). Davis hired black and Hispanic coaches before the league forced people to look that way. He had black players on his team early on, and he was always an outspoken advocate for equality in football. He had a good mind for the Xs and Os of football too. His power run, vertical pass scheme was brilliant in its time, but his time may have passed. The man who has unearth more coaching gems than anyone else (Shanahan, Gruden, Madden, Flores) seemingly had gotten another one in Kiffin. I hope he stays with that one. If not, the Raiders are back to where they started and this last year, full of hope and wins on the road and over AFC rivals, was a wasted one.

AFC/NFC Title Game Thoughts

2008-01-20T21:25:00.000-08:00

1. LaDainian Tomlinson = overrated. There, I said it. I didn't think this day would actually come, but what a completely heartless, disgraceful no show by the former league MVP. Two carries, one catch, and a whole lot of time standing on the sideline while Michael Turner came in and showed that the Bolts don't necessarily need Tomlinson and Philip Rivers gutted out the game on a partially torn ACL and Antonio Gates played the whole game with a broken toe. Tomlinson talked big about his first championship opportunity and then didn't show up. LaDainian, that was the time to play hurt, to put your team on your back and at least try. He didn't once lobby the coaches to put him back in the game.

2. Now that's the Norv Turner I know and love. Here's a thought: You're down two scores with less than 5 minutes to go. You're at the 40 yard line facing a 4th and 10. You have the league's best running back, but he's moping on the bench, so he's a non-factor. But you do have a terrific backup in Michael Turner, a receiver playing to his potential in Chris Chambers and a decent, if injured, quarterback in Philip Rivers. You've moved the ball against the Patriots defense for most of the day. You're playing against the best offense in the league, against the most dangerous playoff quarterback in the league. All you need is 10 yards. Sure, let's punt instead. The Chargers never got the ball back. Brady and company worked the clock and the Chargers couldn't stop that Pats offense.

3. The return of Bad Brett Favre at the worst possible time. I actually don't have a lot to say here. I would have loved to see him play against the Pats in the Super Bowl.

4. Eli??!!?? in the Super Bowl?!?!?!? WTF?!?!? How did this happen? It all started in the last week of the season, when Eli came out and played like gangbusters against the Pats. The Patriots gaveth Eli confidence. Will they take it away in the Super Bowl?

Heisman Race and BCS mess

2007-12-02T09:00:00.000-08:00

First, needless to say, I'm an idiot. I pretty much called this whole BCS mess for the last weekend and foresaw an LSU-Ohio State matchup but forgot to post about it. And sure enough, West Virginia and Missouri choked, though in Missouri's case, even Las Vegas expected them to lose. West Virginia came up small in a big situation like they always seem to do.
So why LSU and Ohio State? The Ohio State part is easy. They're a one-loss conference champion and those are rare this season, so they're in. The other conference champs? LSU destroyed Virginia Tech earlier this year, so they get the nod over them. USC lost to Stanford earlier this year, so they're automatically out. West Virginia just lost to Pitt so they're out. And then there's Oklahoma, who just demolished #1 Missouri. If LSU is in over Oklahoma, voters are saying basically that the SEC is a tougher conference than the Big 12 this year, and the Big 12 actually had a pretty good year. I think it should actually be Oklahoma-LSU in the BCS title game in the ultimate snub of the Big 10. Let's face it, the Big 10 was lousy this year and winning it was no great accomplishment. However this mess gets sorted out, there's going to be at least one team (either Ohio State, LSU or Oklahoma) that will have a legitimate gripe against the BCS. Then there's Hawaii, who arguably played a tougher schedule than Ohio State did this year. So add them in there too, though I don't think any team has ever jumped more than 10 spots in a poll before.

While this weekend further muddled up the BCS championship game, the Heisman race has never been clearer. The list of Heisman candidates and why they will or won't win:

Matt Ryan - threw 18 INTs this year. End of story. He's not that good, no matter how much ESPN and SI try to hype him up. I think he could be a pretty good NFL quarterback, but he turns the ball over.

Pat White - just lost to Pitt, has fumbled way too much throughout the season.

Dennis Dixon - had a great case to be the Heisman until he got injured. Then again, Oregon hasn't won since, so he might be the most valuable player to his team.

Colt Brennan - plays in the throw-happy Hawaii offense so his numbers are inflated a bit. Threw 14 INTs this year. Did lead his team to an undefeated season, but played no one all year long with the exception of Boise State.

Chase Daniels - put up great numbers this season (69.7 completion %, 33 TDs, 10 INTs), but his games against Oklahoma might have doomed him. Daniels had a great chance to shine in the national spotlight, but he couldn't lead his team to victory or even a close loss.

Darren McFadden - great numbers, but people almost expected more. Plays on a 4 loss team, which hurts. Had 3 monster games (Alabama, LSU, and South Carolina), two of which were on the road and 2 subpar games (Mississippi State and Auburn, 0 TD rushing and 3.1 and 2.5 YPC respectively). Played with less talent around him than most candidates.

Tim Tebow - Plays on a 3 loss team. Rushed for more than 800 yards and threw for more than 3,000 yards. Leading rusher and passer on his team. Broke the record for most rushing touchdowns in the SEC. College Football's only 20-20 man, throwing for 29 TDs and rushing for 22 TDs. Had 2 TDs in every game, even in down games against Auburn and Georgia. Had an unbelievable 7 TD (2 passing, 5 rushing) game against South Carolina.

It seems like a two-man race for the Heisman, but really, it's not. Tebow put up TD numbers that no one has ever seen, and TDs are the most important statistic. He somehow surpassed expectations and hype after helping Florida win the BCS championship as a freshman. It has to be Tebow this year.

What we've learned this season

2007-11-23T19:19:00.001-08:00

1. LSU was a fraud.
I started to realize this from the first time I saw Matt Flynn play. I thought, here is a quarterback surrounded by the best possible supporting cast, but he's not up to starring. Les Miles compensated for that by gambling and riding a 3 headed monster at running back. The defense got exposed by Florida and Kentucky and hasn't been dominant since. So Les gambled more and more, playing percentages with fourth down conversions. LSU should have lost to Florida and Auburn this season, but their success on fourth down was the difference.

2. Nebraska might be the biggest disappointment this year.
The Cornhuskers were supposed to be a top 25 team this year and a dark horse national championship contender. Instead, they won't make a bowl game, their coach is a lock to get fired and their defense gives up 65 points to Colorado. The blackshirts have become the black and blue shirts, filled with battered egos and bruises from getting run over (277 yards to Colorado this week).

3. Tim Tebow is the best sophomore quarterback ever.
That's not an overstatement. No one has had a season like him. 20 passing TDs, 20 rushing TDs. He now holds the SEC single season rushing touchdowns record. He should win the Heisman.

4. Texas has officially returned to its previously simply good, not great status.
Minus Vince Young, Texas isn't invincible. They're still pretty good, capable of beating most teams on any given Saturday, but it's now been 2 straight losses to Texas A&M and that's how you can tell that they just aren't the same without the game-saving, playmaking quarterback.

5. This BCS Championship game is going to have at least one team unaccustomed to playing in REALLY BIG games.
Kansas, Mizzou, West Virginia, Ohio State. Which of these does not belong? Ohio State is used to getting to the big game, but the other three haven't sniffed the BCS Championship game in previous years. Mizzou and Kansas have never even been mentioned in the same breath as National Championship since the inception of the BCS.

Who's getting the ax first?

2007-11-13T13:21:00.000-08:00

Yes, it's time to start looking at the coaches on the hottest seat. Let's go down the list.

Good as Gone:
Scott Linehan - Finally won a game, but unless he can string together 6 or 7 more where that one came from, he won't see what has to be a vastly improved Rams team take the field next season.

Coaching his way out of the NFL:
Cam Cameron - Still hasn't won a game. Team hasn't shown any improvement. He isn't starting rookies, so there's a possibility that the team could actually be worse next year. Hard to go worse than 0-16, but Cam's not setting up the future too well.

There's a fire underneath that seat, yet you're not coaching like there's a fire under your ass:
Brad Childress - Wow, bad. Got shut out by Green Bay. The only things he was able to hang his hat on, running and run defense, didn't show up in that game. The run defense was exposed by Ryan Grant. You've probably never heard of him. The pass defense is atrocious as always. They can't pass the ball. Now Adrian Peterson is out and there's nothing left for the Vikings. Plus, Childress loves to throw people that could help the team (Daunte Culpepper, Jeff George, Troy Williamson) under a bus.

The Guru that Wasn't:
Brian Billick - the most secure of the bunch, but coaching his way out of a job. Got Willis McGahee in the offseason only to have the offense pass twice as much as it runs. The defense doesn't scare anyone anymore and it looks like their Super Bowl window closed last year against the Colts in the playoffs. Not getting better with the current staff and roster. Plus, his obvious successor is already on staff: Rex Ryan.

Three Year Circle:
Mike Nolan - Nice guy, sharp dresser, but we've been through this before, haven't we? Peaked with a 7-9 season and an offense that scored 298 points and a defense that gave up 412. Ouch. It's looking more like his first season where the 49ers went 4-12 and couldn't score or defend anyone. Worse yet, they gave their 1st round pick to the Pats in exchange for Left Turnstile Joe Staley. The upside is there's a lot more talent on this team due to a couple of good drafts. The foundation for a Chiefs-style Big 3 (QB, RB, TE) is there. Will the next coach be able to take advantage of it?

Mangenius to Mandummy in one year:
Eric Mangini - Brilliant against a soft schedule last year, lousy against a better schedule this year. Angered the Patriots this year and hasn't been able to do much on either side of the ball. Forced the 3-4 defense on a team that didn't have the right personnel for it. Got a good RB, but the offense seems to have regressed. They thought they were so close last year. This year, they'll be lucky to get close to the Bills and far from the Dolphins.

Family problems lead to coaching problems:
Andy Reid - He ain't going anywhere unless he decides he wants to. Consistently, one of the best regular season coaches, yet his family situation is so messed up right now that he might put himself on the hot seat.

From Super Bowl to consistent Super Bust:
John Fox - He just can't get it done. There's no other way to put it. Looked brilliant in the Super Bowl year, had a great playoff run with Steve Smith and spare parts and then has consistently underachieved. In fairness, Jake Delhomme peaked his first year as a starter, but they could sure use him now. The running game is wildly inconsistent. DeAngelo Williams hasn't become the star people thought he would. David Carr is a big bust in Carolina. Turns out he just has a penchant for taking sacks. Maybe Houston's line wasn't that bad after all. The defense with all those big names and contracts is non-existent. He's still a pretty decent coach, but he might be killed by all those lofty expectations.

Keep the Sonics in Seattle

2007-11-12T12:00:00.000-08:00

I shouldn't even have to post this. Moving the Sonics is like moving the Suns or the Pacers or Spurs. It just should not be done. The Seattle Supersonics have provided many great memories for the city of Seattle. Gary Payton, Shawn Kemp (before he got fat), Ray Allen, their NBA Finals run in 95-96, their surprisingly playoff run in 04-05, the 79 championship team, Lenny Wilkens, Nate McMillan, Spencer Haywood, the X-man, Dennis Johnson, Vin Baker (before he got fat), Derrick McKey's one good season, Desmond Mason's high-flying dunks, Flip Murray's one stretch of good games back in 03 when he was going off on a nightly basis for like a week and then disappeared forever, Paul Silas, that time Jerome James played half-way decent defense against Tim Duncan, Rashard Lewis draining 3s in the corner, drafting Kevin Durant. Look, Seattle is a world-class city that loves its Sonics. Oklahoma City just doesn't have the basketball tradition that the great Northwest does. Not a knock on Oklahoma City, I'm sure it's a fine city, but the Supersonics are Seattle sports. They were the first professional franchise in the city, and they're still the only ones to win a championship. Please, David Stern, don't take this team away from this city. Don't make the league even more generic by having a team name and a city that don't match (see Utah Jazz). Or worse yet, don't rename the team and make them into a generic animal name. Don't relegate the Northwest into cheering exclusive for the Portland Trailblazers. Think of the rivalry that could grow between the Blazers and Sonics over the next 10 years with Durant and Oden in their primes. In Oklahoma City, the Sonics become just another team, akin to the Charlotte Bobcats or the New Orleans Hornets. Hey, the Hornets are a fine team with a great point guard, but I just can't get excited about them. There's not a lot of history there. Owners move teams if they're not making money or if the fan base evaporates. This is so not the case with the Sonics. The new owner just happens to be from Oklahoma City and wants to move the team just because of that fact:

We didn’t buy the team to keep it in Seattle; we hoped to come here.” McLendon indicated that finances might not be the prime consideration in a move, stating that the team would likely perform better financially in Seattle.

Don't let this happen, NBA!

Fire Coach Cam?? Why Bother

2007-11-05T15:02:00.000-08:00

Lemon to remain Dolphins starter

AP says that Coach Cam is giving Lemon the start again. Coach Cam, you are 0-8. You are not going to be 8-8 this year. It's not going to happen unless you trade your entire team for the Patriots entire team. The future is now. Play Beck. He's 26 years old already. You cannot afford to stash him away. He has 10 years at most in the league as a starting QB. Better make use of that now. You know what you have in Lemon. Lemon is a OK quarterback that can manage a game as long as you power rush 40 times a game and have Lemon throw about 15-20 times. Basically, use him like a Quinn Gray in Jax. Since this does not happen in Miami, Lemon has yet to win a game for the Fins this year. To repeat, Lemon is not a playmaker. He does not make things happen and teammates are not rallying around him. You need to see Beck. You need to see him as much as possible between now and the end of the season. There's a very good chance that the Fins will be drafting #1 overall. If a franchise quarterback is in that draft sitting there, the Fins cannot afford to pass that up again. We also need to find out if passing on Quinn was a mistake this year (I maintain that it was, prove me wrong, Coach Cam).

I say "fire Coach Cam? why bother" because it's looking like 0-16 for the fins or at best 2-14, and either of those records will probably get Coach Cam fired and the whole team blown up. I don't know what Cam saw in this team that made him think they were close to the playoffs. Everyone else (and I mean everyone) saw an aging defense, a punchless offense and nothing special on either side of the ball outside of Jason Taylor. Everyone knew (including Jason Taylor) that Trent Green was one hit away from a likely retirement and of course, that happened. Even if it didn't, Trent Green was not going to be a QB to maximize marginal talent. He had Gonzo and Priest and later LJ all those years in KC. His WRs may have been marginal, but he had the benefit of playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the league.

Do the right thing, Coach Cam. Play Beck. I think he gives you a better chance of winning than Lemon does. The team might be able to rally around him. We know what Lemon can do (not much, unfortunately). Let's see Beck. Maybe he's a playmaker. Maybe not. We'll never know if he's glued to the bench. Play Beck and run the ball with Chatman and another rookie that's glued to the bench, Lorenzo Booker. Play him too. Run your backs 35 times a game at least. Your team has demonstrated a good ability to power rush. That has been the only offensive strength all year. Power rush and play action, and maybe Beck will give you the victory that will allow you to avoid the most embarrassing head coaching resume of all time, Coach Cam.

Quick Hits for ya now

2007-11-02T11:58:00.000-07:00

Dodgers hire Joe Torre, team still stinks

Kobe's staying put...for now

Every sports team in Miami sucks right now

Also, the Miami Herald publishes a satirical article about A-Rod going to the Marlins
Um, Miami Herald, this cheapskate franchise didn't even keep their manager of the year. They're thinking about trading Miguel Cabrera because he might make too much money next year. What makes you think they'll go after A-Rod and his bloated salary demands.

Daunte Culpepper still sucks, in case you were wondering, but he would have been a better option than Trent Green or Cleo Lemon.

THE HUGEST FUCKING GAME OF ALL TIME

2007-11-02T11:44:00.000-07:00

Colts-Pats, this Sunday. Let the hype continue. Gregg Easterbrook somewhat jokingly refers to it as the NFL's battle of good vs. evil. This is seriously the most anticipated sporting event for ESPN since the last most anticipated sporting event. This is the Super Duper Bowl. The Pats represent bad sportsmanship, have a jerk for a coach and a pretty boy douche for a quarterback. The Colts represent glorious freedom and capitalism. They have a nice guy best selling author for a coach, a quarterback that's on every football related commercial and a reputation for good sportsmanship. They're the reigning champs. Everything the Pats did this off-season was a response to Reche dropping that pass in the AFC Championship game.

Will the Pats blow out the Colts like everyone else?
No.

Will Brady connect to Moss?
Yes. But expect Bob Sanders to hit Moss every time he gets a chance.

Who will be the star of this game?
Dallas Clark. Everyone expects the other guys to have big games, but Dallas always seems to come up big at the right time.

Will NFL karma play a role in this game?
Yes. This is the game where the Pats' poor sportsmanship, their running up the score comes back to bite them. They're basically a bully that's going to get punched for the first time and they won't like it. Here's the thing about the Pats. They cheated, got caught and then got pissed about and decided to vow to destroy and embarrass the rest of the NFL. But it still doesn't change the fact that they cheated. They were always in the wrong here. They're really just pissed that they got caught. Though it is nice to have a team be a villain again. And anyone who knows me knows that I always thought they were this villainous team disguised as a team pushed by the mainstream sports media as America's team because their name is the Patriots.

Final score?
Colts 31, Pats 24

So who's worse...

2007-10-26T20:16:00.000-07:00

The 0-7 Miami Dolphins or the 0-7 St. Louis Rams?

Let's turn to the tale of the tape for this one.

Dolphins: 0-7
Rams: 0-7
Advantage: the rest of the NFL

Dolphins points scored: 156 (2nd best in the AFC East)
Rams points scored: 79 (1 point better than the 2-4 49ers. The worst show on turf is still better than the worst show on grass)
Advantage: Dolphins

Dolphins points allowed: 231 (worst in the NFL)
Rams points allowed: 192 (tied with Jets for 2nd worst in the NFL)
Advantage: the rest of the NFL; Rams by a hair.

QB status:
Dolphins: Cleo Lemon (plays up to his last name at times), Trent Green on IR (played like he was Green before the injury at times), 38 year old rookie John Beck
Rams: injured Marc Bulger (good when healthy), Gus Ferrotte (former Dolphins starter)

Coaches:
Dolphins: Cam Cameron - former offensive coordinator for the Chargers, perhaps overmatched as a head coach. Not losing his team yet.
Rams: Scott Linehan - former offensive coordinator for the Dolphins and Vikings, overmatched as a head coach. Losing his team.

It's hard to tell from this. Both teams look really bad when you line them up against each other. So one final category.

How close has each team been in their games?

Dolphins:
13-16 loss to Redskins - definitely in it until the end
20-37 loss to the Cowboys - not even close
28-31 loss to the Jets - very close, but it's the friggin' Jets.
17-35 loss to the Raiders - made Daunte look like an MVP again
19-22 loss to the Texans - close, but no cigar
31-41 loss to the Browns - not as close as the score looks
28-49 loss to the Patriots - was 42-7 at the half!

Rams:
13-27 loss to the Panthers - not close at all
16-17 loss to the 49ers - heartbreaking
3-24 loss to the Bucs - ouch
7-35 loss to the Cowboys - put up less of a fight than the Fins did
31-34 loss to the Cardinals - at least they finally scored points
3-22 loss to the Ravens - Gus Ferrotte makes the Ravens look like it's 2000 again
6-33 loss to the Seahawks - made the Seahawks look like the 2000 Ravens

Rams were in it in two games, the Dolphins three games.

So the Dolphins are slightly better than the Rams, but really they're both 0-7, which is terrible. If you combine the Rams offense with the Dolphins defense, you'd have perhaps the worst team statistically ever. Who would have ever thought that?

Weekend Predictions

2007-10-26T11:36:00.000-07:00

Red Sox in 2, it seems.
The poor Rockies just don't seem to be able to do much. It's still weird to expect the Red Sox to win a World Series after failing for so many years.

Florida-Georgia
Florida owns Georgia. Why should this year be any different?

Boston College-Virginia Tech
Boston College in a low scoring game that showcases overrated Heisman candidate Matt Ryan doing nothing for the first 3.5 quarters and then rallying his team to victory. Oh wait, that already happened.

Ohio State - Penn State
Ohio State owns the Big 11. But it should be close.

USC over Oregon
Just because friggin' USC never loses when they're expected to.

Patriots over whoever
Is it a bye week for them already? They'll put up 38 points on that too.

London fans sleeping over Dolphins-Giants game
Seriously, aside from the jet lag factor, this shouldn't be close. Which means of course...

Dolphins over Giants

Dallas vs. Pats analysis plus MLB's worst nightmare

2007-10-17T11:50:00.000-07:00

For Frances: Dallas wasn't ready for the Pats. Their coach chickened out on a 4th and goal call and kicked a field goal instead of going for a TD to get them back in the game. The Boys are still having a good season though. They should make the playoffs and might even win the NFC.

As for baseball, the Red Sox are on life support and it looks like the MLB ratings apocalypse will soon be upon us. The Indians vs. the Rockies. In NY, no one even knows that baseball is still happening. Every day, it's will Joe get fired? Will Don Mattingly be the new manager or maybe Joe Girardi? Does it even matter? Until the Yanks figure out that their rotation is trash, their starting lineup too one dimensional, and that their post-season aura of invincibility was demolished long ago and can no longer carry them, Joe Torre or anyone won't be leading them to World Series. Nobody on that team is hungry for a World Series. The team that used to boast a ton of Mr. Clutches, from the Babe to Reggie Jackson to Paul O'Neill and Derek Jeter has become the team of A-Rod, the anti-clutch.

Back to the Sox for a last thought. They're going to go with their best pitcher, Josh Beckett, so they still have a chance. Cleveland's fan base is used to disappointment (see entire post-season history of Cavs, Browns and Indians), so if they lose the next game, the team and the fan base will start to get a "here we go again" feeling that the Boston fans used to have before they kicked that by killing the Yankees.

Fins Trade Chambers; Submit to Reality

2007-10-17T11:42:00.000-07:00

http://www.miamiherald.com/611/story/273780.html

The Miami Dolphins have traded Chris Chambers for a 2nd round draft pick. Chambers is best known for dropping clutch catches, showing flashes of promise, putting together a few memorable games and never emerging as a consistent playmaker.

Easy Q&A

2007-10-11T17:20:00.000-07:00

1. What's wrong with the Miami Dolphins?
As usual, the Dolphins can't get anything out of the quarterback position. It seemed like Trent Green was at least going to be a competent caretaker of the offense until he got his eggs scrambled again. Now we're left to see if Cleo Lemon is more than just a funny name. At least until John Beck is ready to step in and prove that he was worth skipping Quinn for. On defense, their secondary is cover your eyes bad. Zach Thomas has concussion problems. On the bright side, Jason Taylor is still a force and Matt Roth is coming into his own at DE.

2. What's wrong with Larry Johnson?
Herm Edwards. He ran Larry into the ground last year and is employing a stone-age offensive game plan that allows defenses to crowd the line of scrimmage without any fear of being burned by a big play. That, and the Chiefs' offensive line isn't what it used to be. Carl Petersen let the Chiefs get really old along the line without drafting suitable replacements. They better hope Brodie Croyle is the real deal (so far, nothing indicates that this is the case) or they're going to be bad for a while.

3. What's wrong with the AFC West?
Coaching. Norv Turner and Herm Edwards replaced Marty and Dick. Shanahan remains the same but so far, Jay Cutler hasn't been the star QB he was hyped up to be. The Broncos might have been better off letting Cutler learn from the bench a little more while Jake Plummer continued to lead them into the playoffs. The Raiders, on the other hand, made the giant leap forward by exchanging Art Shell for Lane Kiffin.

4. How do you beat the Patriots?
There is a way, despite what we've seen so far. Jam the receivers at the line of scrimmage, hit them hard if/when they catch the ball. Make them pay for going over the middle and double up on Moss. Then you have to disguise your coverages to confuse Brady. You CAN'T just rush four against that line like Cleveland did all game. You have to take a page out of the New England playbook and bring pressure from all angles. I think what the Bills did defensively against the Cowboys for 3 1/2 quarters would work against the Pats. Throw unorthodox looks at them. And stop the run. I didn't say it was easy.

5. Why did the Bills lose that game to the Cowboys?
Coaching. Dick Jauron made quite a few blunders throughout the game. Throwing on 3rd and seven when going conservative and running the ball would have ensured an easy field goal in the fourth quarter. Calling a prevent defense late in the game and then somehow letting the Cowboys having the sideline was another egregious gaffe. Buffalo's been close in every game except the game against the Pats. But they're losing the close ones because Jauron is making one or two game altering coaching mistakes every game.

Why the Chargers are not Making the Playoffs this Year

2007-10-05T13:09:00.000-07:00

1st and 5 at KC 5	(4:03) (Shotgun) P.Rivers pass incomplete short right to V.Jackson.
2nd and 5 at KC 5	(3:58) (Shotgun) P.Rivers pass incomplete to M.Floyd.
	Timeout #1 by KC at 03:53.
3rd and 5 at KC 5	(3:53) P.Rivers pass incomplete.
4th and 5 at KC 5	(3:46) (Shotgun) P.Rivers pass incomplete short left to C.Davis (J.Page).

Notice the complete lack of LaDainian Tomlinson in this series. Norv and the Chargers, you have the best running back in football and one of the best drive blocking lines in the NFL. You also have a mediocre set of wide receivers and a quarterback who is only in his second year of starting for the team. This is a no brainer if ever there was one. Anyone, ANYONE can see the obvious. Run Tomlinson all four times if you need to. He'll pick up the 5 yards. They didn't even have Rivers throw to Antonio Gates, who's the only consistently good receiver the Chargers have and is BY FAR their best red zone receiver.

This leads to another thought. Would the Raiders of Kerry Collins, LaMont Jordan, Jerry Porter and Randy Moss made the playoffs in the hands of a capable coach? There was an awful lot of offensive talent on that team and yet they consistently underachieved.

My favorite line from the sports media comes from Peter King of SI who says he believes Norv will figure out that he should give Tomlinson more than 3 carries in the second half. He needs to figure this out???? Why does he need time to figure this out? This should be like a reflex action for him. Chargers offense on the field, run Tomlinson. At least this year we're learning that a coach does make a difference on the team. All the talent in the world (which the Chargers were always overrated in that department anyway, no secondary and no wide receivers does not mean this team has an abundance of talent like some think) doesn't mean much if there's no one to guide it.

NFL Week 3 Pregame Analysis

2007-09-22T16:08:00.000-07:00

Chargers at Green Bay
It's entirely possible (and even likely) that Norv Turner's team is in stage one of giving up on their coach. This is a Norv Turner staple. This Chargers team has a lot of talent, but they have a weak secondary and average WRs. Green Bay, on the other hand, has looked like a team that has average talent that is being coached up by a good coaching staff. Their defense is very good. The offense is finding itself. Brandon Jackson and DeShawn Wynn might be good enough at the RB position to propel this team to the playoffs. Plus, this game is at Green Bay. Norv Turner on the road is not a good thing. Take the Chargers out of the top tier of AFC teams when they lose this game.

Dolphins at Jets
Let's just say I'm not sold on Cam Cameron at all. Run the ball, man. The Dolphins passing offense isn't good enough for Cam to get away from Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman so early in the game. And have you ever heard of a feature back that only got 11 carries a game? I can tell you what Ronnie Brown's stat line is going to be: 11 carries, 33 yards, 0 TDs. It's been this way the past two weeks. Meanwhile, the Jets can pressure any QB and can't get the running game going either. It's really a toss-up but Mangenie will cook up some magic on defense to confuse Trent Green and eek out a win.

Vikings at Chiefs
Let's review. The Vikings run the ball well and defend the run well. The Vikings' weak spot has been their secondary. The Chiefs haven't really done much well to this point, but they supposedly run the ball well and don't have all that strong of a passing game. On paper this favors the Vikings. Well, let's look at the coaches. Brad Childress hasn't distinguished himself in either direction. Herm Edwards has a history of dogging the first four or five games of the season before getting on a roll. Again, advantage Vikings. Damon Huard has the edge over Tarvaris Jackson at QB, but Childress could and should run Adrian Peterson 35 times this game and have Tarvaris run a few times. Be brave, Brad. Call an unbalanced game and run three times more than you pass. The Arrowhead factor, by the way, has always been overrated. Vikes should take it.

Lions at Eagles
The Lions 4 WR sets are hard to defend, but there's a way to beat that spread. Pressure the QB. Expect Jim Johnson to blitz big all game to get to Kitna. That may be the only way the Eagles stop that Lion offense. Read that sentence again and think if you would have ever seen that written down. The Lions shredded the Raiders because Rob Ryan went too conservative in his defense. On offense, the Eagles are just going to have to give Westbrook 20 plus carries and put McNabb in the Jeff Garcia role from last season. It's obvious Donovan isn't close to 100% yet.

Bills at Patriots
No surprises here. Let's say Pats win this one 38-14 and make it three in a row with the same score. Buffalo has the advantage in 0 areas in this game. Keep that in mind when you're watching the Pats toy with them this week.

49ers at Steelers
Here's where we learn about the makeup of this 49er team. The 49ers should keep it interesting with Frank Gore carrying the load, but the Steelers have just too many advantages on defense and offense to lose a game like this at home. This also looks like the type of win that will garner all sorts of unnecessary hype for this Pittsburgh team only for them to get overconfident and blow it the next week against the Cardinals.

Rams at Buccaneers
What have the Rams shown this season that suggests they'll win this game on the road?

Cardinals at Ravens
I'd like to pick the upset, but it's just not happening against a Ravens defense that plays pissed off even when they're not really pissed off.

Colts at Texans
Yeah right. Just forget it. The Colts are too good early in the season to give one up here. If this was week 13 or so, then maybe, but not now. Peyton picks apart an always weak Houston secondary. Matt Schaub goes in without his best WR and I don't think that Jacoby Jones or Kevin Walter are up to the task. Colts win big.

Jaguars at Broncos
Finally, fantasy owners can rejoice. Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor run amok, but alas it's not enough as Denver's CB tandem picks off David Garrard a few times to give Denver another close win.

Browns at Raiders
The Browns on the road? They do have a history of beating the Raiders in recent years, but it's not happening again this year. Derek Anderson gets brought back to earth and LaMont Jordan continues to run wild.

Bengals at Seahawks
Everyone scores bunches of points, and the Seahawks come out on top. Why? Because the shootout favors the home team and the team that can actually make one stop and that team is definitely not the Cincinnati Bengals.

Panthers at Falcons
Both teams aren't very good, but the Panthers are slightly better. That said, the Falcons should win. Why? Because sometimes the NFL doesn't make any sense.

Giants at Redskins
A team that self-destructs in Week 2 will not win games in Week 3. The Redskins, on the other hand, look like a playoff team with a good coach, a good defense, a gamebreaker at WR, an incredibly underrated TE, two good RBs and a improving QB.

Cowboys at Bears
The Bears play defense; the Cowboys do not. Discount the Rex Grossman factor. He played at least 5 good games last year, and this will be his first one this year.

Titans at Saints
The Saints are too talented on offense to go 0-3 to start the season. The Saints will be at home, which always helps. But don't expect it to be easy. The Titans have a good and very underrated defense. They find ways to bring pressure and are almost never vanilla. The Saints defense just doesn't look good in any way. But being at home should help them get a few stops against a just okay Titans offense and Drew Brees and Co. should put up enough points to get the job done.

Side note: If Deuce McAllister doesn't get 20-25 carries this game, Sean Payton's going to start looking like an idiot coach.

But I could be wrong.

It's Time to Re-evaluate the Top 25

2007-09-22T15:51:00.000-07:00

After just seeing Michigan beat #10 Penn State, all I could think was how in the hell was Penn State ranked number 10? Who did they beat all year to earn such a lofty ranking? They beat down Notre Dame, but that certainly shouldn't give the team any bonus points. We know now that Charlie Weis is not the genius he makes himself out to be and that genius or not, you need an offensive line to make an offense go. Penn State played defense, but again, it's Michigan with a freshman QB. And Penn State made Michigan's previously horrible defense look like a group of All-Americans. With each passing week, the Big 10 looks worse and worse. Ohio State may be the only legitimate team in the conference. Maybe. Is there any doubt that the good teams from the very mediocre ACC could beat most of the Big 10 teams. I just don't see a Penn State being able to hang with Clemson and that running game or Boston College and that passing offense. It's time for pollsters to stop voting based on rep. The only reason that Penn State was in the Top 10 is because people want to see JoePa's team do well. How else can you explain Penn State beating no one and earning a top 10 ranking while a team like USF beats Auburn on the road and only barely cracks the top 25?

The commentators for the Michigan game commented that Michigan could win the Big 10 after losing to Appalachian State. I wonder if Appalachian State would be the best team in the Big 10 if it were in the conference.

Mid Week Football Thoughts

2007-09-20T14:03:00.000-07:00

Week 2 and 3 are when you really learn about which teams are for real.

They Are Who We Thought They Were

1. Bengals - Fantastic offense, horrific D.
2. Da Bears - Fantastic D, horrific offense
3. Seahawks - Mediocre team in a mediocre division in a mediocre conference.
4. Patriots - Cheaters. And an unstoppable juggernaut on offense.
5. Norv Turner, head coach - Lost on the sidelines as usual. Anyone who didn't see the Pats beatdown of the Chargers coming doesn't watch football. Belichick vs. Norvell is the coaching mismatch of the year.

We Had No Idea
1. Titans - Where did that running game come from?
2. 49ers - The offense is trash and yet here they are at 2-0. Fluke or really good D?
3. Dallas - When did they turn into the Colts of the last few years?

Eh, it's a start

2007-09-12T13:17:00.000-07:00

I've created this blog for J Funk b/c he thought I might be good at something like this.