Their owner, for one. Their problems stem from the very top. It's not a coincidence that the two of the teams without GMs have lousy teams. The Raiders don't have any consistency. Head coaches come and go every two years and they shift offensive philosophies too often to find a rhythm on offense. On defense, they've actually had some consistency, but the defensive coach is terrible. To quote Oakland fans: "Rob Ryan sucks." There's no other way around it. He's had players to work with. Here's how the Raiders lose:
1. They don't show up and get blown out.
2. They keep it close, but adventures in officiating go against them and they don't have the resolve to recover.
3. They keep the game close, maybe kick a field goal to take the lead or tie the game, and their defense gives up a last minute drive and the winning points.
I don't know this for sure, but I think the Raiders must have lost more games by last second field goals and touchdowns than any other team in the last five years. And that's on Rob Ryan. When the team needs a stop, he can't deliver. They make stupid mistakes in key situations, whether it's a pass interference penalty, lining up offside or getting a stupid personal foul penalty. Then there's the coverage. Rob Ryan says he doesn't play a prevent defense. But he does play a zone defense that involves the corners keeping the ball in front of them, designed to stop big plays but allow short chunks of yardage. This is a prevent defense. It never works. Why go away from the defensive scheme that kept the game close in the first place?
So what can Al Davis do to clean it up? In no particular order:
1. Fire Rob Ryan.
2. Let Tom Cable go back to coaching the offensive line. This has been their biggest area of weakness for a while, but they played reasonably well last year when Cable was just focusing on coaching the O-Line.
3. Get a GM. Give him the authority to shape the team.
4. Get rid of the overpaid, underperforming players. It's a lot of them, but they need to clean house.
5. Hire a coach and stick with him. Don't undermine him at all. Give him at least three years to build a winning program. Don't panic at the first 4-12 season. This team sucks and that's going to happen.
6. Don't draft cornerbacks or safeties. Draft offensive linemen. Draft defensive linemen.
7. Get a couple of decent wide receivers to help JaMarcus in the passing game.
8. Develop JaMarcus Russell. Run McFadden a lot more. Make him the centerpiece of the offense.
It's a lot to do, but look at the Dolphins as an example of what competent management can do for a team. In one year, they've made one of the most dramatic turnarounds and have gone from worst in the league to in contention for a playoff spot.
Sunday, November 23, 2008
Is it Donovan McNabb or Andy Reid?
McNabb has been stinking up the joint recently for the Eagles, but don't let Andy Reid off the hook either. Look at this line here:
So say you're playing your young backup quarterback on the road against one of the best defenses in the league. Say you manage to drive to the goal line and are sitting at 1st and goal from the one. Don't you just run it up the gut four straight times? Odds favor a touchdown in that situation. But Andy decides to throw, and well, you can see the result above.
This is part of a bigger problem that the Eagles have had for the better part of five years now. They don't have a short yardage back for these situations. They have Westbrook, who's one of the most versatile and talented running backs in the league, but he's not a big guy that can get the extra yard. How they didn't draft or sign a big running back the last few years is beyond absurd. This is a solid team all around that has had one huge glaring hole. Of course, Andy Reid refuses to run the ball in obvious running situations, so maybe they thought it would be money wasted to go after a short yardage guy.
PHI2 M.Stover extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Katula, Holder-S.Koch.
2-1 BAL1 (7:44) K.Kolb pass short middle intended for D.Jackson INTERCEPTED by E.Reed at BAL -8. E.Reed for 108 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1-1 BAL1 (8:20) K.Kolb up the middle to BAL 1 for no gain (T.Suggs).
This is part of a bigger problem that the Eagles have had for the better part of five years now. They don't have a short yardage back for these situations. They have Westbrook, who's one of the most versatile and talented running backs in the league, but he's not a big guy that can get the extra yard. How they didn't draft or sign a big running back the last few years is beyond absurd. This is a solid team all around that has had one huge glaring hole. Of course, Andy Reid refuses to run the ball in obvious running situations, so maybe they thought it would be money wasted to go after a short yardage guy.
Saturday, November 22, 2008
What's wrong with the Cincinnati Bengals
Surely, every NFL team believes they can at least compete at the start of every season, but do they still think that by the middle of the season? In the case of the Bengals, it doesn't appear so. So where did it go wrong for a team that was at least supposed to have an explosive offense this year? Why can't Marvin Lewis get a good defense after coaching the Ravens Super Bowl D? It all goes back to their personnel moves of the last few years. Look, everyone that's even sort of followed this team knows what they've needed for the last few years: Offensive line depth, defensive line starters, linebackers, tight ends, safeties, running back depth. That's a lot of needs for a team. They've only sort of addressed linebackers out of that group. They made half-hearted attempts to address the safety position. Instead, they've inexplicably drafted wide receivers and cornerbacks. They cut Willie Anderson and Rudi Johnson in the offseason without bringing in suitable replacements, thus killing their depth in two key areas.
They seriously thought that Chris Perry, who's never played a full season in the NFL, could carry the load this year, and he proved them wrong. At one point, they cut Kenny Watson, who was their best back last year, and is a servicable third down back and good receiver out of the backfield. Now they're relying on Chicago cast-off Cedric Benson. Mike Lombardi of the National Football Post says Benson doesn't hit the hole with any kind of power or burst. Lombardi's right. The evidence is in the game film. He's not a good back. Rudi, meanwhile, has looked decent at times for the Lions, who are the worst team in football.
But he could be servicable if the offensive line wasn't a mess. They cut Willie Anderson, who was a good right tackle for them for years. Not only that, he was a mentor to Levi Jones and the rest of the guys on the line. They let Eric Steinbach leave in free agency a couple years back. He's young and a pretty good guard. The offensive line is the most important part of a football team. I think even if they had kept the line that had led them to the playoffs, they should have been drafting at least one lineman a year to bolster their depth.
They haven't had a good defensive line in years. Again, how about drafting some pass rushers that don't get arrested. They need a big body in the middle of that defense to occupy blockers and stop the run. They need a strong safety that can play in the box and bring the hammer down. They've done nothing to address this.
At tight end, they've let great rookies pass them by. A good blocking tight end would help their line and a pass catcher would give the offense an added dimension. They could line up in with a singleback, 3 WR, 1 TE formation and do a lot of damage in both the passing and running game if they had the pieces.
It's going to take a good couple years of drafting and smart free agent signings for this team to be competitive again. They have a lot of holes on both sides of the ball. They need a GM to help with this and they need to devote more resources to scouting. Marvin Lewis also needs to go. The Bengals need a fresh start. Unfortunately, their ownership hasn't shown much inclination to devote the resources necessary to put a winning team together in many years. Aside from two mediocre years and one good one, this has been a terrible team for the better part of the decade. Like the Raiders and the Lions, the problems with the Bengals stem from the very top of the organization and until they change course, they'll continue to be bottom-feeders.
They seriously thought that Chris Perry, who's never played a full season in the NFL, could carry the load this year, and he proved them wrong. At one point, they cut Kenny Watson, who was their best back last year, and is a servicable third down back and good receiver out of the backfield. Now they're relying on Chicago cast-off Cedric Benson. Mike Lombardi of the National Football Post says Benson doesn't hit the hole with any kind of power or burst. Lombardi's right. The evidence is in the game film. He's not a good back. Rudi, meanwhile, has looked decent at times for the Lions, who are the worst team in football.
But he could be servicable if the offensive line wasn't a mess. They cut Willie Anderson, who was a good right tackle for them for years. Not only that, he was a mentor to Levi Jones and the rest of the guys on the line. They let Eric Steinbach leave in free agency a couple years back. He's young and a pretty good guard. The offensive line is the most important part of a football team. I think even if they had kept the line that had led them to the playoffs, they should have been drafting at least one lineman a year to bolster their depth.
They haven't had a good defensive line in years. Again, how about drafting some pass rushers that don't get arrested. They need a big body in the middle of that defense to occupy blockers and stop the run. They need a strong safety that can play in the box and bring the hammer down. They've done nothing to address this.
At tight end, they've let great rookies pass them by. A good blocking tight end would help their line and a pass catcher would give the offense an added dimension. They could line up in with a singleback, 3 WR, 1 TE formation and do a lot of damage in both the passing and running game if they had the pieces.
It's going to take a good couple years of drafting and smart free agent signings for this team to be competitive again. They have a lot of holes on both sides of the ball. They need a GM to help with this and they need to devote more resources to scouting. Marvin Lewis also needs to go. The Bengals need a fresh start. Unfortunately, their ownership hasn't shown much inclination to devote the resources necessary to put a winning team together in many years. Aside from two mediocre years and one good one, this has been a terrible team for the better part of the decade. Like the Raiders and the Lions, the problems with the Bengals stem from the very top of the organization and until they change course, they'll continue to be bottom-feeders.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Good God, the Celtics OWN the Pistons
Celtics 94, Pistons 80. Ouch. Looks like AI is making no difference early on.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
NBA ceilings/basements vol. 1 - the west
How the West could be won or lost:
1. LA Lakers - Their ceiling is the highest of all teams. They look like they could win 70+ and run amok in the playoffs en route to an NBA championship. Their basement isn't too bad either. It would take a catastrophic series of injuries to keep them out of the playoffs, and as we've seen in the past, Kobe, Odom and scrubs is good enough for at least a seventh seed, which is their basement right now.
2. New Orleans Hornets - They could go to the Finals if the Lakers get hit with injuries and no one else (Utah, Houston) steps up their games. Look, I love Chris Paul. I think he's the best point guard in the game since Magic and the best pure point since Isiah. But I get the feeling that the rest of the team had career years and played above their ability last year and are falling back to Earth this year. I'm still not sold on David West being a big factor come playoff time. Worst case scenario, Paul gets injured and they don't make the playoffs. If they had one more competent big, I could see them doing real damage in the playoffs. Of course, if Chris Paul turns in an Oscar Robertson season, all bets are off and their ceiling goes way up.
3. Utah Jazz - Again, they could be in the Finals if the breaks go their way or end up as a 5th or 6th seed if Deron Williams gets hurt again. That's not bad for a team. Their basement isn't very low and this is a very talented team with a good bench and a great coach that forces them to play disciplined basketball night in and night out.
4. San Antonio Spurs - Do they have one more Finals run in them with this core? Yes. Can they be a top seed? Probably not because of the injuries to Parker and Ginobili. Will they miss the playoffs? No. They're going to be a very dangerous 3rd or 4th seed in the playoffs and at worst, an absolutely deadly 6th seed. No one will want to see these guys in round 1.
5. Houston Rockets - Overrated? Yes. Yao's going to get hurt. This always happens. McGrady's already hurt again and he's lost a step. I think he might be done. Maybe it's just the knee injury, but he couldn't blow by anybody this year and was shooting terribly. Sad to see that Artest joins the Rockets just in time to see them turn into the Sacramento Kings. Let's see, underachieving coach? Check, Rick Adelman to boot. High expectations never met? Check. People were all over this team in the preseason because they look great on paper. On the court is a different story altogether.
6. Portland Trailblazers - Oh, who cares where these guys finish, this is such a fun team to watch. Oden plodding around, while Fernandez and Roy make the game beautiful. Seriously though, if this team matures and Oden starts delivering, they can be this year's Hornets. I could see them getting to the second round of the playoffs, especially if they draw a weaker team like the Mavs or the Rockets in the first round. The bottom, of course, is missing the playoffs, but I don't see that happening.
7. Phoenix Suns - Another "on paper" team. Shaq, Amare, Nash, Grant Hill. This should be enough except three of those guys are well over 30 and Amare has a history of knee injuries. Plus, they willing got rid of a great coach and replaced him with a mixed bag coach. Not good, Phoenix. Nash had a telling quote recently saying that the Suns couldn't run with Utah when they got out on the break. Imagine that, the Suns can't run with other teams now. They peak with a 5th seed. Amare might be enough to get them in the playoffs, but their championship window closed last year.
8. Dallas Mavericks - They're done. Their window was slammed shut by D-Wade and the Heat in game three a few years back and then it was boarded up by Golden State upsetting them in the first round two years ago. Dirk lost his confidence and stopped sneering after big shots. Worse yet, he stopped taking and making big shots. He defers in key situations now. Teams have figured out how to defend him. Jason Terry and old man Stackhouse are the "game on the line" shot guys. That's a terrible situation. Jason Kidd has lost about five steps and can't defend any point guard. Their center position is a mess with two overpaid guys that both can't score and draw too many fouls. And Josh Howard is a scapegoat for admitting to smoking pot. Well, wouldn't you smoke pot if this was your team? Their basement is out of the playoffs which I think is likely. Oh, and they still have Devean George.
9. Denver Nuggets - The Iverson-Billups trade rejuvenated this team and fixed one of their biggest issues. Now they have a real point guard running the show and Melo can be the big scoring guy again. Their defense is a little better, but they're not getting out on the break as much as they did last year. Their ceiling is still a first round elimination unless they draw Houston. I don't think Nene and K-Mart are enough in the front court. They need one more big guy. Too bad it wasn't McDyess.
10. Golden State Warriors - Let's not kid ourselves. This team is not making the playoffs. Without Baron, they don't have anyone that scares another team. They might contend for the 8th seed playing Nellieball, but even if they get in, they'll be out in 4 games. Their basement is finishing under 500.
11. LA Clippers - Not making the playoffs. That's their ceiling and their basement and everything in between. This is one of those teams that you look at, and on paper, they look good enough that maybe you talk yourself into thinking that they could sneak up on some teams and steal a playoff spot. No, they can't. Tim Thomas and Ricky Davis on the same team, Dunleavy's the coach, and Baron already says their not on the same page. The Clippers are always in the Lottery, yet they never win.
12. Sacramento Kings - Where do you think their ceiling is? Not very high? Right. Ok. Move right along then. Oh, right the basement. Well, they'll get used to that. This team isn't very good and won't even sniff the playoffs. But at least they'll get a high draft pick. Maybe somebody told the Maloofs that the NBA Lottery is like gambling and they decided that's where they want to be.
13. Minnesota Timberwolves - Fun, young team that is still a few years away from contending. They might finish ahead of the Clippers and the Kings but they'll be well out of contention.
14. Memphis Grizzlies - See Minnesota Timberwolves entry.
15. That team that plays in Oklahoma City - You know the one. Their ceiling is also their basement. Gets cramped down there. They'll be the worst team in the West. Durant and Green will take the next steps and it won't be enough. There's nothing around these guys. They might be the worst team in the entire NBA. They are basically a bench and 3 starters away from contending. Think about that. That's pretty much the entire team. This team is an entire team away from contending. It's an absurd statement, but it's true. If only they could steal a good NBA team and move it to Okie Dokie City and give it a generic Arena Football team name.
1. LA Lakers - Their ceiling is the highest of all teams. They look like they could win 70+ and run amok in the playoffs en route to an NBA championship. Their basement isn't too bad either. It would take a catastrophic series of injuries to keep them out of the playoffs, and as we've seen in the past, Kobe, Odom and scrubs is good enough for at least a seventh seed, which is their basement right now.
2. New Orleans Hornets - They could go to the Finals if the Lakers get hit with injuries and no one else (Utah, Houston) steps up their games. Look, I love Chris Paul. I think he's the best point guard in the game since Magic and the best pure point since Isiah. But I get the feeling that the rest of the team had career years and played above their ability last year and are falling back to Earth this year. I'm still not sold on David West being a big factor come playoff time. Worst case scenario, Paul gets injured and they don't make the playoffs. If they had one more competent big, I could see them doing real damage in the playoffs. Of course, if Chris Paul turns in an Oscar Robertson season, all bets are off and their ceiling goes way up.
3. Utah Jazz - Again, they could be in the Finals if the breaks go their way or end up as a 5th or 6th seed if Deron Williams gets hurt again. That's not bad for a team. Their basement isn't very low and this is a very talented team with a good bench and a great coach that forces them to play disciplined basketball night in and night out.
4. San Antonio Spurs - Do they have one more Finals run in them with this core? Yes. Can they be a top seed? Probably not because of the injuries to Parker and Ginobili. Will they miss the playoffs? No. They're going to be a very dangerous 3rd or 4th seed in the playoffs and at worst, an absolutely deadly 6th seed. No one will want to see these guys in round 1.
5. Houston Rockets - Overrated? Yes. Yao's going to get hurt. This always happens. McGrady's already hurt again and he's lost a step. I think he might be done. Maybe it's just the knee injury, but he couldn't blow by anybody this year and was shooting terribly. Sad to see that Artest joins the Rockets just in time to see them turn into the Sacramento Kings. Let's see, underachieving coach? Check, Rick Adelman to boot. High expectations never met? Check. People were all over this team in the preseason because they look great on paper. On the court is a different story altogether.
6. Portland Trailblazers - Oh, who cares where these guys finish, this is such a fun team to watch. Oden plodding around, while Fernandez and Roy make the game beautiful. Seriously though, if this team matures and Oden starts delivering, they can be this year's Hornets. I could see them getting to the second round of the playoffs, especially if they draw a weaker team like the Mavs or the Rockets in the first round. The bottom, of course, is missing the playoffs, but I don't see that happening.
7. Phoenix Suns - Another "on paper" team. Shaq, Amare, Nash, Grant Hill. This should be enough except three of those guys are well over 30 and Amare has a history of knee injuries. Plus, they willing got rid of a great coach and replaced him with a mixed bag coach. Not good, Phoenix. Nash had a telling quote recently saying that the Suns couldn't run with Utah when they got out on the break. Imagine that, the Suns can't run with other teams now. They peak with a 5th seed. Amare might be enough to get them in the playoffs, but their championship window closed last year.
8. Dallas Mavericks - They're done. Their window was slammed shut by D-Wade and the Heat in game three a few years back and then it was boarded up by Golden State upsetting them in the first round two years ago. Dirk lost his confidence and stopped sneering after big shots. Worse yet, he stopped taking and making big shots. He defers in key situations now. Teams have figured out how to defend him. Jason Terry and old man Stackhouse are the "game on the line" shot guys. That's a terrible situation. Jason Kidd has lost about five steps and can't defend any point guard. Their center position is a mess with two overpaid guys that both can't score and draw too many fouls. And Josh Howard is a scapegoat for admitting to smoking pot. Well, wouldn't you smoke pot if this was your team? Their basement is out of the playoffs which I think is likely. Oh, and they still have Devean George.
9. Denver Nuggets - The Iverson-Billups trade rejuvenated this team and fixed one of their biggest issues. Now they have a real point guard running the show and Melo can be the big scoring guy again. Their defense is a little better, but they're not getting out on the break as much as they did last year. Their ceiling is still a first round elimination unless they draw Houston. I don't think Nene and K-Mart are enough in the front court. They need one more big guy. Too bad it wasn't McDyess.
10. Golden State Warriors - Let's not kid ourselves. This team is not making the playoffs. Without Baron, they don't have anyone that scares another team. They might contend for the 8th seed playing Nellieball, but even if they get in, they'll be out in 4 games. Their basement is finishing under 500.
11. LA Clippers - Not making the playoffs. That's their ceiling and their basement and everything in between. This is one of those teams that you look at, and on paper, they look good enough that maybe you talk yourself into thinking that they could sneak up on some teams and steal a playoff spot. No, they can't. Tim Thomas and Ricky Davis on the same team, Dunleavy's the coach, and Baron already says their not on the same page. The Clippers are always in the Lottery, yet they never win.
12. Sacramento Kings - Where do you think their ceiling is? Not very high? Right. Ok. Move right along then. Oh, right the basement. Well, they'll get used to that. This team isn't very good and won't even sniff the playoffs. But at least they'll get a high draft pick. Maybe somebody told the Maloofs that the NBA Lottery is like gambling and they decided that's where they want to be.
13. Minnesota Timberwolves - Fun, young team that is still a few years away from contending. They might finish ahead of the Clippers and the Kings but they'll be well out of contention.
14. Memphis Grizzlies - See Minnesota Timberwolves entry.
15. That team that plays in Oklahoma City - You know the one. Their ceiling is also their basement. Gets cramped down there. They'll be the worst team in the West. Durant and Green will take the next steps and it won't be enough. There's nothing around these guys. They might be the worst team in the entire NBA. They are basically a bench and 3 starters away from contending. Think about that. That's pretty much the entire team. This team is an entire team away from contending. It's an absurd statement, but it's true. If only they could steal a good NBA team and move it to Okie Dokie City and give it a generic Arena Football team name.
How the Celtics could win it all or come up short
The Celtics will win it all if their core is healthy for the playoffs and no one slips, even just a bit. Keep in mind, their core is the Big Three and they are all past the big 3-0. KG is 32 and has played more than 1,000 career games, all at his ridiculously high intensity level. I don't care who you are, but eventually it burns you out. He never takes a minute off when he's on the court. Pierce is a 31 year old wingman, and as with all wingmen, they rely on a good first step to get to the basket. If he loses that, he turns into a jump shooter, and while Pierce is a good one, the Celtics need him to be a slasher, a creator and a finisher. Ray Allen is 33 with a history of injuries. Of the three, he can most afford to lose a step since his game is less slashing and more spot up shooting. So far, it doesn't look like any of them have slipped at all. It's entirely possible that KG just simply will not let them take a play off.
Monday, November 17, 2008
Why I'm the Idiot Fan
A couple of addendums to previous posts. I somehow forgot Jerry Sloan when I mentioned great NBA coaches. He's definitely one of them. Utah's got a good team, but you put Flip Saunders as the head coach, and that team goes nowhere fast. If I had to rank the top coaches, I'd probably put Pop at the top, Phil next, then Sloan, then D'Antoni, Doc and Larry Brown. Nate McMillan can make the leap this year if his Blazers show something in the playoffs. He did coach a surprisingly feisty Sonics team a few years back, but I need more than just one good run to be convinced.
Also, in my How to Win in Football post, obviously the surefire way to win every game is, in the words of the immortal John Madden, to score more points than the other team. I wanted to add that the running and stopping the run teams often have problems playing each other. In those matchups, the team with the better QB or the better pass defense usually wins out, so basically, the Vikings can't win when they go up against a team that is like them. They also can't win because their coach doesn't know how to do his job, but that's for another post. Actually, you can take my post about Dick Jauron and replace the Bills and Dick Jauron with Brad Childress and the Vikings and you'll get my exact thoughts on that coach.
Also, in my How to Win in Football post, obviously the surefire way to win every game is, in the words of the immortal John Madden, to score more points than the other team. I wanted to add that the running and stopping the run teams often have problems playing each other. In those matchups, the team with the better QB or the better pass defense usually wins out, so basically, the Vikings can't win when they go up against a team that is like them. They also can't win because their coach doesn't know how to do his job, but that's for another post. Actually, you can take my post about Dick Jauron and replace the Bills and Dick Jauron with Brad Childress and the Vikings and you'll get my exact thoughts on that coach.
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