it's least wonderful time of the year

let's recap:

college football? nope
NFL? nope
World Cup futbol? nope
BPL? nope
NBA? nope
MLB? yep

the lebron timeline

Cavs-Celtics, Game 1 - Mo dunks, Cleveland goes ballistic, LeBron turns it on and they win 101-93.

Cavs-Celtics, Game 2 - Cleveland loses, LeBron is unnaturally very calm about this. Mike Brown is not.

Cavs-Celtics, Game 3 - In Boston, LeBron destroys the Celtics, showing no effects of an elbow injury in putting up 38/8/7/2

Cavs-Celtics, Game 4 - See Game 2 comment

Cavs-Celtics, Game 5 - LeBron's last game in Cleveland. He's lethargic, inaccurate, disinterested. "I spoil a lot of people with my play." He gets booed. Writers around the country wonder what's wrong with LeBron. Is the mysterious elbow injury? LeBron seems not to care.

Cavs-Celtics, Game 6 - Somehow a LeBron triple double seems uninspired. He again doesn't seem to care. He rips the Cleveland jersey off his back heading into the locker room.

Fast forward to the offseason. We never hear anything about the elbow injury. LeBron strings along Cleveland and every other team with cap space, though honestly, the Clippers should have known better. Cleveland management and his teammates (the same ones he was dancing with and high-fiving before every regular season game) find out that LeBron is not coming back for the first time during his televised decision on ESPN. Times LeBron mentions his supposed good friends during the ESPN program: 0

So what to draw from all this? I think it's becoming increasingly clear that LeBron quit on his team some time after Game 3. And his decision was made some time around that time too.

the Raiders are a .500 team and other bold predictions

Dear Jonathan,

The Miami Dolphins are not going to win the Super Bowl this year. Chad Henne is a year away at least. For your sake, I hope I eat my words.

Sincerely,

A fan of a team that always loses


And on to my bold and not so bold predictions for the NFL season. Forecasting sports is a lot like forecasting the weather. Everyone is wrong but tries anyway. And like in both, trust your eyes and not the bull.

1. Raiders are a .500 team this year. They would have been last year if the quarterback wasn't the biggest bust in the history of sports (Ryan Leaf is now #2 on this list, mostly because JaMarcus is also the fattest bust in the history of sports). Campbell is decent. The O-Line is improved. Bush will run for close to 1,000 yards. Run DMC will show up this year and not in a cast. And I think the Raiders actually have a dangerous WR corp. DHB will be better. He's about 3,000% better in camp this year than he was all of last year. Louis Murphy is legit. Shit, I'm talking myself into this team. Super Bowl or bust? An idiot can dream.

2. The Dolphins are a playoff team. Duh. The entire AFC East is a playoff team except for Buffalo, who is lousy.

3. That said, the Jets will not make the playoffs. You can see this coming, right? Too many big names. Too many egos. They got worse at RB. They are the favorites. There's no chip on their shoulders. Unless Sanchez makes the leap. Then all bets are off.

4. Or maybe the Pats won't make the playoffs? Nah. Here's what I like about the Patriots: Nothing at all. I hate this team so much. But if you were a Pats fan (and God help you if you are, you root for a douchebag QB), this is what I would like about this team: no one is talking about them. All the attention is on the Dolphins and the Jets and even on how bad the Bills will be and how stupid it was to hire Chan Gailey. Meanwhile, Belichick is secretly videotaping every team right now so he'll know all their plays. Or he's quietly scheming revenge on the rest of the league for the embarrassment his team suffered in the playoffs last year.

5. These teams will be better: Tennessee, Washington (can't get worse), Miami, Oakland (can't get worse), Detroit (ditto), Denver, NJ Giants

6. These teams will be worse: Jacksonville (this team screams 5-11 to me), Philly, Buffalo (Chan Gailey? Really?), Minnesota (slightly, they were really good last year, but anyone really trust Childress? anyone?), Arizona

7. These teams are who we think they are: Indy, San Diego, Green Bay, New Orleans, St. Louis (sad)

fucking heat

I'm coming around to accepting that this team will be nigh unbeatable this year. I think the supporting cast is weak outside of Mike Miller, but it probably doesn't matter with Wade and LeBron. I hate this team so much, but they'll be fun to watch.

NCAA Tournament rules

1. Big East is always way overrated. I always forget this.
2. Independently of that, Notre Dame is always overrated.
3. Except for one or two teams, the SEC sucks at basketball.

most perfect fit ever in the nfl

Jake Delhomme has signed with the Cleveland Browns, bringing us the perfect marriage between a quarterback that really sucks and a franchise that really, really sucks. Of all the things I've seen in the past few months, this is the one thing that has inspired me to post.

So while I'm in the posting mood, some odds and ends of things that have transpired.

1. The Marlins won't win the World Series. There's my response to you, Jesse. They just won't. I don't know how to explain it, but simple mathematical odds are not on their side. They were something like the 6th best team in the NL last year and the top teams didn't get that much worse, though the Giants stink and could slip and the Rockies were a fluke. But the Marlins aren't better than the Dodgers or Phillies and they certainly aren't better than the top teams in the AL. Comment and flame away. Don't disappoint me.

2. The Lakers have problems. These will be fixed come playoff time. Ron Artest is a dumb offensive player. Kobe will either kill him or fix him by the playoffs. Gasol is soft again. Phil will fix this again.

3. The Celtics have problems. These can't be fixed. They are old. Ray Allen seems to be done, which is shocking because he was very much not done earlier this year. KG is too, but that's more an injury thing. Pierce is also just being beat up by injuries. They look like they're set up for a first round upset loss. Of course, this means they will storm their way through the playoffs.

4. LeBron James and the Cavs - I'm still not convinced. Show me you can beat Orlando in the playoffs.

5. Orlando - should've kept Hedo. Vince sucks. Everyone knew this but Orlando apparently.

6. I think the Raiders should draft the slowest guy in the 40 just to balance things out. The fastest guys always seem to bust, so maybe the opposite way is the right way.

7. Suh is the best player in the draft. Enough of this nonsense about Gerald McCoy possibly being better. Any idiot (me) with eyes (I have those too) who watched college football can see that Suh is just better than anyone. It's not even close. This is just fake draft drama.

8. The Rams will stupidly draft neither of those guys and take Sam Bradford, who I never thought would be a great NFL QB.

9. Here's how I would scout a player (in either the NBA or the NFL). I would just watch 4th quarters. I would focus on 4th quarters in tight games. I would look at film of the guy on the sideline as well. If he comes up big late in big games, I want him. If he doesn't, but throws a good spiral or puts up impressive stats, I don't want him. It's really that simple. And yet, every year, NBA/NFL teams spend tons of money to fuck this up. Forget about the combine.

Marlins homerism

I claim minimal responsibility for this:

From the mouth of the biggest Marlins homer ever, ladies and gentlefolk, Mr. Jesse Bryan.


Greetings fish fan(s),



Beisbol is here!!!!!! Thank goodness as these other silly sports have become a real bore. Seriously, how can you gauge how good any team is without playing AT LEAST 150 games. To commence my inaugural post of the 2010, let me give you the reasons why the Florida Marlins get (and most likely win) to the World Series this year in no particular order.



They retained pretty much everyone on a very potent offense. Losing Nick Johnson will definitely hurt (and the Yankees got a steal on him), but maybin should fill in nicely in the #2 hole. They won 87 games last year with essentially the same team which was a young one. They are now a year older. Tough luck NL East.



Emilio Bonifacio is no longer leading off. We had to endure over 80 games of his bald head on our screens last year and inefficient hardly describes his contribution. I still don’t trust him as even a utility man (we’ll miss you amezega), but that’s better than being the starting lineup.



Cameron Maybin will have a breakout season and will be in the rookie of the year hunt. After a disappointing start in 2009, Maybin killed it in AA and had a nice return to the bigs at the end of the season. I expect him to tear it up this year in the #2 spot. Coghlan, Maybin, Hanely is a pretty nasty 1-2-3.



Jorge Cantu’s wrist is completely healed. He still hit .290 with 100 rbis last year with the pain lingering, but with his wrist healed, expect those HR numbers to return to the 25-30 range.



The best 1-2 punch the game: Josh Johnson (yay for signing him) and Ricky Nolasco (he will get a multi-year contract if he pitches how he should).



A fine group of pitchers competing for the 3-5 spots with West, Volstad, Miller, Sanchez, Vandenhurk, Penn. I have my money on Sanchez, Volstad and West filling out the rotation. From what I hear, Sanchez is as healthy as he’s been since his rookie season (dropped 15 pounds and worked hard on leg strength) after the all star break last year he had a 2.80 ERA or so. Volstad needs to return to 2009 form and ASAP. West was called up too early, but showed he already has the stuff to be dominant.



Dan Uggla: I’m pretty excited they fish kept Uggla. I watched about 70-80 games last year, and I must say Uggla really got the shaft on some hard hit balls. His walks were a career high last year and his K’s a career low. I think he has a monster year hitting behind

Cantu.



Brett Carroll is the best outfielder in the MLB.



A cornucopia of relievers competing for roster spots including Derrick Turnbow and Jose Veras.





Finally, my marlins visor. Fate shined brightly upon me the other day in a thrift store where I found a near meant Marlins visor that I will proudly where inside and outside. Go fish!

Because it's playoff season

Here it is in all its glory:

Brad Childress continues to hold back the Vikings

Before the Vikings lackluster effort against Carolina, most sportswriters and analysts had this team pegged as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. What's not to like? Good QB playing out of his mind, a top RB, a great O-line, an even better D-line, quality linebackers and a good secondary. Oh right, the coach is a moron. We've known this for a while now, but I think some people got wrapped up in how good the talent is in Minnesota that we forgot that the coach will find a way to ruin this. And he will. Mark my words. Brad Childress will cost this team a playoff game. Childress coaches not to lose; all of his games seem to be decided by a field goal. That's no way to coach.

Then there's this gem courtesy of ESPN.com:
Childress said that a quarterback who makes “five checks in a game or six checks in a game” has gone overboard. He added: “Typically the idea with a quarterback in this offense, you’re not going to the line of scrimmage looking to change the play. Because then you end up seeing ghosts.”

Um, you know Brad, Peyton Manning makes 5 or 6 checks in a drive and his team is undefeated. Experienced QBs should be allowed to call their own plays and audible. It's one of the main advantages to having a seasoned QB. Peyton Manning is great partially because he is his own offensive coordinator. Gregg Easterbrook on ESPN.com goes into this a bit more in his TMQ column. If you want to see what happens when a control-freak coach handcuffs a great veteran QB, pop in tapes of mid to late 90s Dolphins games to see how mediocre Dan Marino was under Jimmy Johnson.

Brad will ruin this team. It was a big mistake to give this guy a contract extension. What does that team do after this year when Favre retires again and they're left with Tavares Jackson and Sage Rosenfels as their QBs? I guess no worries, because Brad will call the plays, make the checks, study the film and not see any ghosts out there.

mel kiper is an idiot and kobe is the best player in the NBA

Mel Kiper doesn't watch football. I'm convinced. His draft grades are always a mess. He's a terrible writer. I'm no great shakes, but then again, I'm not getting paid to write for ESPN Insider. His latest column has him revisiting his draft grades. He has the gall to say that the Dolphins rookie CBs, who are starters for a team competing for the playoffs, are good players with low ceilings. Low ceilings? Really, Mel Kiper? If starting and showing flashes of shutdown dominance are signs of a low ceiling, then I wonder if there's any player in the NFL with a high ceiling. My main problem with all of these types of articles, and really the basis of Kiper's existence as a sports analyst, is that you can't tell if a player will be good or not in the first year. You need a good three years to evaluate a player. Look at someone like Cadillac Williams or even better Michael Clayton. These guys were great their first year, and I'm sure Kiper was raving about how good the Bucs were at drafting those years. But then you look at the rest of their careers and it's been all downhill. Cadillac peaked about three games into his NFL career and hasn't averaged more than 4 yards per carry since his rookie year. Clayton has been even worse. He was a rising star when he caught 80 passes for 1,193 yards. Since then, he's caught 139 passes for 1717 yards over the course of 5 seasons. This year, he's caught 14 passes for 204 yards. He's put up a goose-egg 3 times this year. Clearly, he's a bust. But you wouldn't have known that after his first year.

In other news, Kobe is the best NBA player today. Sorry, LeBron James, but show me a ring and you'll get the top spot. Kobe is the guy every other NBA player looks up to now. The scary thing is that Kobe is better this year than last year. This is a guy that scores 40 points with a torn tendon in his index finger. He added at least 4 or 5 post moves this offseason to bring his repertoire up to something like 5,016. If you watch LeBron, you'll realize quickly he's the most talented NBA player, but he hasn't yet put it together. He's getting there, but I'm a bit disappointed that we're not see LeBron destroy people in the post more often. I know, I know: Kobe has the advantage of playing on a better team. The Cavs are very mediocre without their star. Shaq is 35 pounds overweight, Mo Williams is a third banana playing a second banana's role, Anthony Parker's a bench player playing a starter and the Big Z looks and moves like he's 40. But I haven't seen the King take a stranglehold of this team and impose his will on these guys.

quick thoughts (it's been a long time coming)

A quick note about my NFL forecast. I, like everyone else who tries to predict the NFL season, was wrong about most things. That would be why I'm the Idiot Fan and not just the Fan.

1. I really like the MNF announcing team. I might be the only one in the world.
2. Going for it on 4th and 2 is playing the percentages. The average NFL play is something like 4.5 yards and most 3rd and 2 and 4th and 2 conversions are successful, especially when you have an offense like the Patriots.
3. However, jesus, what balls on Belicheck. Wow. Also, if you're going to go for it, don't do it with a rinky dink pass to a running back. Play action deep to Moss or to Welker on a crossing route.
4. Peyton is the best QB in the league right now. Better than Brees.
5. It's a toss-up. Brady Quinn, Derek Anderson or Jamarcus Russell, who's worse? I say Russell, but he's at least more talented than Derek Anderson.
6. Speaking of wasted talent, Darius Heyward-Bey and his hands of stone. But at least he's fast, oy vey!
7. The Giants will go on a run. Just a hunch.
8. Andy Reid is the white Art Shell when it comes to clock mismanagement.
9. It should be noted: Andy Reid has been outcoached by Wade Phillips and Norv Turner in consecutive weeks. Wade Phillips and Norv Turner!
10. The Bengals are for real. Time for everyone to acknowledge it. They swept the Ravens and the Steelers and have one more game against the Browns. This team could have homefield advantage through the playoffs.

the Giant-Size NFL preview part 4 of a million

And another.

AFC West

1. San Diego - A Norv Turner coached team might make the Super Bowl. The Chargers are loaded on both sides of the ball this year, and yet, they're going to give away some games because Norv is not a good coach in the fourth quarter. But they'll cruise to win this division on talent alone. They're the cream of this division's crap and will be that way for the foreseeable future.
Record: 11-5 and a deep playoff run.

2. Oakland Raiders - Well, who else do you want to put here? The Chiefs have a terrible offensive line and a defense that is equal parts old and green. The kids there are lousy (looking at you, Glenn Dorsey), and the vets don't have much in the tank. And Denver is a mess. So that leaves us with the Raiders, a team that just got obliterated 45-7 by the Saints in the preseason. A team with a head coach who might be arrested at some point in the season. I think they have enough talent on offense to be respectable, although their running game really hasn't shown up so far in the preseason. The defense is lousy. Really bad. It's always pretty bad. They have the best corner in football but the defensive line is worthless. The linebackers are decent in coverage but because the line is trash, they don't get any breaks against the run.
Record: Oh God, do I have to? Optimistically, 7-9. Pessimistically, 5-11. And what does that say about how I feel about the rest of this division? Well read on, reader.

3. Kansas City Chiefs - New QB, new GM, new head coach. Same crappy defense. Replacing Herm as the coach is worth a win or two by itself. Their offensive line is really lousy though, and I'm not sure Cassel is going to look half as good in KC as he did in New England. On the upside, the return of Larry Johnson. I'm grasping at straws here.
Record: 5-11. And that's an improvement. Oy vey!

4. Denver Broncos - This team is a mess. They're switching to a 3-4 defense, which fits no one on the team currently. Kyle Orton is replacing Jay Cutler. Let's write that again for emphasis. Kyle Orton is replacing Jay Cutler! And their best receiver has decided to quit on the team before the season starts. On the upside, Eddie Royal will put up good fantasy football numbers.
Record: 4-12, unless they start Chris Simms ahead of Orton. Then it turns into 6-10. A little better, eh?

The Giant-Size NFL preview part 3 of a million

These intros keep getting shorter.

AFC South

1. Indianapolis Colts - This team is the model of consistency. Pencil them in for 12 wins a year. Peyton looks comfortable with his wideouts and the change in defensive philosophy might do this team some good. They were too passive in the Cover 2 the last couple years. This is one of 4 or 5 legitimate Super Bowl contenders in the AFC.
Record: 12-4 and a return to the AFC championship game.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars - Bounce-back year from the Jags. This is another team that I have a hard time getting a read on, but I know this: David Garrard is actually a very good QB and MJD is a top 3 running back. The offensive line should be much improved and the team should have a giant chip on their shoulder after last year's performance. This is a make or break year for Del Rio. He needs to get his team into the playoffs or he won't be coaching this team next season.
Record: 10-6 and a wildcard spot. I've changed my mind about this team roughly 55 times during the preseason. They could just as easily go 6-10 and I wouldn't be surprised.

3. Houston Texans - Everyone is high on them. They're a popular sleeper pick for the playoffs, which means they won't make it. Look at past examples of popular sleeper playoff/Super Bowl teams:
2008 Cleveland Browns - didn't come close
2007 - New Orleans Saints - didn't make the playoffs
2006 - Carolina Panthers/Miami Dolphins - didn't make the playoffs
2005 - Minnesota Vikings - Love boat scandal, Culpepper's knee blows up, Culpepper has worst year ever, and the Vikes miss the playoffs

So you see the trend here. Houston has a good offense run by a fragile QB. Their defense is getting better and I can't believe that Charlie Casserly has been vindicated in picking Mario Williams over Reggie Bush, but it was the right pick.
Record: 8-8 again.

4. Tennessee Titans - And then they came crashing down. This year, Kerry Collins will remember he is Kerry Collins, the defense will drop off without Haynesworth, and who's that we see in the distance? Why, it's the return of Vince Young, coming back as the starting quarterback in December when the games will be meaningless for this team. Here's what you need to know. They overachieved a lot last year. They think they've addressed weakness at the WR position by adding a rookie and Nate Washington, the Steelers' third option at the position. Nate fuckin' Washington. When he's your number one, just forget about throwing the ball.
Record: 6-10. Really.

The Giant-Size NFL preview part 2 of a million

Here we are again. You, potentially reading this blog. Me, writing nonsense about sports that I pretend to know about. Shall we get to it then?

AFC North

1. Pittsburgh Steelers - Feels like it's going to be a bit of a letdown year for the Steelers. I don't know why and don't have solid evidence to back it up, but Big Ben's legal issues are an unnecessary distraction and I'm not sure this team is particularly hungry.
Record: 11-5 and a quick playoff exit.

2. Baltimore Ravens - Yes, they lost some talent on the defense. Yes, they lost Rob Ryan, their talented defensive coordinator. Yes, their receivers aren't great. But Flacco is making the leap this year. He's the first real QB that the Ravens have ever had. The defense still has Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, and Nagata might be the best defensive tackle in the league. Wait, why do I have them at number 2 in this division? I do have to give the defending champs a little respect.
Record: 11-5 and a nice playoff run as a wildcard team.

3. Cincinnati Bengals - The return of the high-powered Bengals offense is not enough to offset the return of the matador Bengals defense. I won't believe in their defense until I see some results on the field during actual games that count.
Record: 8-8, but they'll be sniffing the wildcard until the end of the year.

4. Cleveland Browns - Not good. How was this team talked about as a Super Bowl contender last year? Derek Anderson as a Super Bowl QB? Come on. Brady Quinn is a small improvement, but this team has already fallen apart and we're not yet to the games that count.
Record: 3-13, just an ugly year for this team. They seemed to have already tuned out Eric Mangini. Has a team ever quit on a new head coach in the preseason?

The Giant-Size NFL preview part 1 of a million

I keep saying this: Thank God for football season. It was way too long. Even the crappy preseason has been enough to tide me over until mid-September. We're getting a decent idea of what to expect from teams, even though preseason won/loss records are meaningless and not a good indicator of regular season success (see 2008 Detroit Lions and 2006 Oakland Raiders). But you can still tell a bit about a team by their training camp and the first quarters of preseason games. Again, the Raiders were terrible on offense the past few years in camp and the opening quarters and sure enough, they were equally terrible on offense during the regular season. So without further ado,

Your 2009 NFL season predictions that you can take to the bank (and lose a lot of money on, much like a bank these days, actually):

AFC East
1. The Patriots - Ugh. I hate this team, but they look so damn good. Robo-Brady may wreak havoc, they have arguably the best receiving corp in the league (though they're getting a little old between Moss and Galloway), the defense should be 100 times better and they have something to prove. Plus, they still have the best head coach in the league. Shit, this team could go 14-2 this year. A couple things worry me: their running backs are ordinary (I know, it didn't matter when they went 16-0) and their offensive line is not fantastic. They were manhandled by the Bengals in a preseason game. Manhandled by the Bengals. Thought I should repeat that because it just seems so shocking. Still, their linebackers are much improved, their defensive line is always top-notch, the corners are well, the Pats always get by with rubbish corners.
Record: 13-3

2. Miami Dolphins - Miami has the Dolphins, the greatest football team. Well not this year. Plus, the stupid team remixed the song. Bad karma potential there. I like the Dolphins, I really do. They overachieved big time last year, but they're well-coached and they have a decent QB in Pennington. Plus, Pennington actually knows the playbook this year. He was the most accurate QB in the league last year and he didn't know the playbook. Pretty amazing actually. Ted Ginn Jr. is putting it together and looks like a legit number one receiver. They have depth at that position this year too. I like Fasano as their tight end. The defense looks to be improved, though I'm not completely sold the Gibril Wilson/Yeremiah Bell combo at safety yet.
Record: 9-7. Sorry, Dolfans, your team is good, not great.

3. The Buffalo Bills - The TO experiment. That's what this season boils down to. Here's what TO can't cover up:
a. Their running back is crazy/unreliable
b. Their defense can be pushed around
c. Their head coach is one of the worst game managers in the league.
It's the last one that will kill them this year. I posted about this previously.
Record: 7-9 (again!). It could blow up completely and they end up being 5-11. I don't see a winning record for them.

4. The J-E-T-S - I like Rex Ryan. I kind of like the defense. I think Mark Sanchez will be a good QB, just not this year. They get by on sheer guts and bravado this year. Watch out for next year though. This team will make a major leap in 2010.
Record: 6-10.

The Mistake by the Lake (or how Brett Favre is a big mistake)

Not that the Browns are looking so hot nowadays, but the mistake by the lake I'm referring to involves Minnesota and not the city that bears the unfortunate nickname. Brett Favre is back. It makes the Vikings more interesting, but does it really make them that much better?

If you watch ESPN, the obvious answer seems to yes, of course, idiot, But look at it this way:

Does Brett Favre make Minnesota a Super Bowl contender? No. Their secondary still isn't great, their head coach is still a cross between a high school coach and a porn star, and their quarterback still has a penchant for throwing costly interceptions.

Is Brett Favre the best quarterback in the NFC North? Again, no. He's third behind Cutler, who is like a younger Favre in a lot of ways, and Aaron Rodgers.

Is it a good idea to sign a 39 year old quarterback after training camp? No. He has no chemistry with his receivers, offensive line, coaches and running backs. His arrival means Sage Rosenfels and Tavaris Jackson are thrown under the bus. He doesn't fully know the playbook. All of this means that he's going to be more inclined to wing it during the season, and with Favre, that can be a dangerous proposition. He's the all-time leader in interceptions for a reason.

How motivated will Favre be, especially if he loses to the Packers twice this season? This is the hardest question to answer. Some people think his return is motivated by revenge and if he loses out on that, will he care about the rest of the season? I have no idea.

Is Brett Favre worth $12 million for one year? No. The Vikings paid $12 million for a one-year traveling circus. They paid $12 million to give Brad Childress one last chance to prove he's a competent NFL head coach. The last head coach that pinned his hopes to Favre ended up fired and exiled to coach in Cleveland. By some accounts last year, Brett was a primadonna in the locker room.

Is 39 year old Brett Favre $11 million better than 39 year old Jeff Garcia? No. Call me crazy, but I would rather have Garcia. He's well-versed in the West Coast offense and he takes care of the football. He doesn't have the arm strength of Favre, but he's a lot less likely to throw stupid interceptions. In his last four years, Favre has had one really good one and three mediocre to bad ones. We forget this because the Brett Favre hype machine is always on during the season, but if he were anyone else, he would have been replaced before he had the chance to have that one good year in 2007. Garcia has had three pretty good years out of the last four years, and his one bad year in that period came with the Detroit Lions, so that's hardly fair to hold that against him. And here's the kicker: Garcia makes $1 million this year as a backup. The Vikings could have had him if they went after him early in the offseason. He was a good fit for their offense.

I see the Vikings getting a nice 9-7 season out of the Favre experiment. Their ceiling is really 10-6, and there's a good chance they finish under .500 and get Childress fired.

Ok, one more NBA post and then for real, it's all football all the time

A few NBA related thoughts that I never got out:

1. Orlando blew it by not resigning Turkoglu and instead using the same amount of money on Brandon Bass and Marcin Gortat. That's just insane. Turkoglu was their second best player last year and their clutch guy, and as much as I don't like the way he plays, I can admit that he was integral to their team. With him, they had three 6'10" or taller guys in the starting lineup. The Magic could have trotted out a starting lineup of Jameer Nelson, Vince Carter, Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis and Dwight Howard. Would that have been the best starting five in the league? You could argue that San Antonio, the Lakers or Boston could match that, but that's a pretty damn good lineup. I originally thought they were trying to save money by not resigning Turkoglu, but then they went ahead and matched Dallas' stupid offer to Gortat (five years/$34 million for a backup center averaging 12 minutes a game). Ummm..Why? He would never, ever push Dwight Howard for playing time. Let Dallas sign their newest Erick Dampier. Then they went ahead and gave stupid money to Brandon Bass (4 years/$18 million). I know, I know, he's young, he's got some talent, the price wasn't that high. But for the same price of these two, they could have kept Turkoglu, who's better than both of them combined.

2. Lakers resigned Odom and all is right in the world. Their lineup is scary good, especially if Bynum can improve.

3. Good God, the Celtics have signed every big man in the world. But they pissed off Rondo, and no one knows if he'll be in the right mindset to start the season. But I like signing Sheed, even if he has nothing left in the tank. Getting Big Baby back was another great deal. I like the Shelden Williams signing. They are very, very deep in the frontcourt.

the vick thing

As most of you know, the Eagles signed Michael Vick to be their backup quarterback. I'm not sure why. He's not the missing piece of the puzzle for the Eagles. The Eagles have been missing one piece for a number of years, and every year, whether it's through the draft or free agency, they fail to address it. The Eagles need a power running back, someone with size who can get tough yards and fight through tackles. I said the same thing last year. They suck near the goal line because they don't have a good fullback or big running back who can convert third and goal or fourth and goal.

How does Vick address this? He doesn't. They can put him in as a Wildcat quarterback near the goal line to give defenses something else to think about, but do they really want to be taking out Donovan McNabb in scoring situations. He's their best player. The other thing with Vick is all the media he drags behind him. Is a backup quarterback worth a season-long media circus?

Football is back

Thank God. It's been too long. I was starting to give you up for the NBA, following that offseason with a keen interest, but I can put that aside now. It's football season and I can start posting about a sport people actually care about now. Hard to get a true read on teams in the preseason, but there are some truths to be had, such as:

Truth #1 - Cleveland will be lousy. They were pretty bad against a 3-4 defense they should be seeing everyday in practice. Actually, this was against a Packers team transitioning to the 3-4 with guys learning new positions and with their top two corners sitting out. Yikes! On the road to another 4-10 season. Good luck, Mangenius.

Truth #2 - ESPN will only care about the following three players (in order): Brett Favre, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning. And they're starting to slip on Peyton. They only talk about Brett Favre, despite him being a washed-up retired has-been, and Tom Brady, who they gushed about and casually ignored the pick he threw in the preseason game. I would give up ESPN if they didn't have the rights to EVERY sport. That's probably a really bad thing, right? Too much power in one place and that place is too concerned with promoting itself at every turn. Deadspin has a good ESPN catchphrase analysis bit that they do every so often.

Truth #3 - Denver won't be good this year. Orton has looked like crap all throughout training camp and now the preseason. Their defense is a combined 1,000 years old, the secondary is really old especially, Jarvis Moss sucks at DE/OLB, they don't have a nose tackle and they're switching to a 3-4 defense. And they traded arguably the best young QB in the league this offseason and got back Kyle Orton. And their best receiver, Brandon Marshall, doesn't seem to give a shit about playing for the Broncos. Seems like Josh McDaniels might be a wee bit in over his head. If this was the Raiders, ESPN would be making a ton of cracks about all this, but they are strangely silent about Denver's slow swirl down the train.

More Marlins than you can shake a stick at

Editor's Note: This post is a few days old, and I was slow to put it up, perhaps because the writer trashes my Marlins analysis in the opening sentence of the post. Just saying... Anywho, here's another post from one of only 5 real Marlins fans on the planet, ladies and gentlefolk, Mr. Jesse Bryan:

--------
Inspired by Jason's ESPNesque "coverage" of the marlins in his last
post (seriously "The Marlins are young and so very up and down" is all
you can muster?!?!), I've decided it's about darn time for a fish
post.

The season thus far: Once again the team with the lowest payroll is in
playoff contention. To elaborate Jason's statement, yes this has been
very up and down year with more ups than downs. After a psychedelic
11-1 start, the fish fumbled in a pretty dramatic way losing a whole
bunch of games and not winning nearly as many. I first attributed this
fumbling to the vile new namesake of Joe Robbie stadium, "Landshark
Stadium." Being associated with Jimmy Buffet is never good for
business and the fish obviously went into a deep depression when this
change occurred. I'm surprised no one committed suicide because I
almost did after puking no less than 15 times. However, the fish
battled back and have put themselves back in contention. Then with
things heating up, they go and get swept by the nationals (after
series wins against the Dodgers (take that Jason), Cubs and Braves).
"Boo hoo" I thought and also exclaimed out loud. Next thing I know,
they sweep the Phillies and are right back in. Baseball.

So here we are with a huge series with the wild card leading Rockies.
Last August did the fish in. Except for the Nationals sweep, this
August has been excellent. The offense is scorching the ball like I've
never seen before from a marlins team. Now let's take a peak and what
has occurred this year:

Starting pitching: Except for JJ, completely inconsistent. What was
supposed to be the fishies great strength has been a battle all year.
Nolasco started off with a 9+ era only to get sent down and come back
and return to the Nolasco of last year. They had to call up Sean West
early due to injuries/demotions and he has done a very serviceable
job. Same with Vanderhurk. Sanchez got injured again, but he has not
been so hot. He's pitched some nice starts in the minors and should be
called up soon and the fish will need him to pitch well of they're to
make a push. If the fish starting pitching can someone stabilize (the
talent is there), then they could really go on a tear with bats
hitting like they are.

Bullpen: I got to give high marks to the pen although Fredi's
management of them has been quite bad at times. What was perceived to
be a huge weakness has been excellent for the toddlers in teal. Brian
Sanches, Kiko Calero, Dan Meyer, Burke Badenhop, Brian Donnelly and
Leo Nunez have done a great job. Lindstrom has not been so effective
and I cringe at him closing again. The pen has pitched a whole bunch
of innings, which means the starters really need to starting rattling
off the quality starts.

Bats: The fish started hot, then went ice cold. Uggla was having a
horrible year with his average below .200 at one point. Bonifacio was
just awful and so is Hermida. Then all of a sudden the fish have had
10 hits in the last 10 games for the first time ever. Everyone is
killing the ball right now (well except for hermida). Uggla has
finally hit his stride, Hanley is Hanley, Coghlan is a bad ass, ross
is clutch and the baker/paulino combo has put up the best numbers in
the mlb at the catcher position since the all star break. And Nick
Johnson has been absolutely amazing (he gets his own section). Gload
and Helms have been awesome coming off the bench. They rank 1st and
3rd in the MLB for pinch hits and Gload's walk off brought a tear to
my eye. Watch out phillies.

Defense: Definitely much improved. Besides Bonifacio's ineptitude at
third and hermida in RF, the defense has been good to stellar at
times. I recall there was a 10 or so game streak without an error.
Coghlan has become quite the left fielder considering his natural
position is 2nd base. Nice job fish.

Nick Johnson: In terms of impact, I would argue that NJ was the best
mid-season trade by any mlb team. This guy is the piece the fish were
missing. Bonifacio's OBP is about .290 while NJ's is over .400 and is
6th in the MLB. Having him hit between the smoking hot Coghlan (8
multi-hit games in a row) and Hanley has been huge for this team. On
top of that, Boni has flourished in the utility role. His gold glove
also hasn't hurt, although it has taken Cantu a little bit to get
settled at third.

Not to bad at all. And what's next for our fishies? I think the win
the division. The Phillies will collapse while the finish continue
their hot hitting with solid pitching to back up. Once the fish get
into the playoffs, we all know what happens next....