Before the Vikings lackluster effort against Carolina, most sportswriters and analysts had this team pegged as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. What's not to like? Good QB playing out of his mind, a top RB, a great O-line, an even better D-line, quality linebackers and a good secondary. Oh right, the coach is a moron. We've known this for a while now, but I think some people got wrapped up in how good the talent is in Minnesota that we forgot that the coach will find a way to ruin this. And he will. Mark my words. Brad Childress will cost this team a playoff game. Childress coaches not to lose; all of his games seem to be decided by a field goal. That's no way to coach.
Then there's this gem courtesy of ESPN.com:
Childress said that a quarterback who makes “five checks in a game or six checks in a game” has gone overboard. He added: “Typically the idea with a quarterback in this offense, you’re not going to the line of scrimmage looking to change the play. Because then you end up seeing ghosts.”
Um, you know Brad, Peyton Manning makes 5 or 6 checks in a drive and his team is undefeated. Experienced QBs should be allowed to call their own plays and audible. It's one of the main advantages to having a seasoned QB. Peyton Manning is great partially because he is his own offensive coordinator. Gregg Easterbrook on ESPN.com goes into this a bit more in his TMQ column. If you want to see what happens when a control-freak coach handcuffs a great veteran QB, pop in tapes of mid to late 90s Dolphins games to see how mediocre Dan Marino was under Jimmy Johnson.
Brad will ruin this team. It was a big mistake to give this guy a contract extension. What does that team do after this year when Favre retires again and they're left with Tavares Jackson and Sage Rosenfels as their QBs? I guess no worries, because Brad will call the plays, make the checks, study the film and not see any ghosts out there.
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
mel kiper is an idiot and kobe is the best player in the NBA
Mel Kiper doesn't watch football. I'm convinced. His draft grades are always a mess. He's a terrible writer. I'm no great shakes, but then again, I'm not getting paid to write for ESPN Insider. His latest column has him revisiting his draft grades. He has the gall to say that the Dolphins rookie CBs, who are starters for a team competing for the playoffs, are good players with low ceilings. Low ceilings? Really, Mel Kiper? If starting and showing flashes of shutdown dominance are signs of a low ceiling, then I wonder if there's any player in the NFL with a high ceiling. My main problem with all of these types of articles, and really the basis of Kiper's existence as a sports analyst, is that you can't tell if a player will be good or not in the first year. You need a good three years to evaluate a player. Look at someone like Cadillac Williams or even better Michael Clayton. These guys were great their first year, and I'm sure Kiper was raving about how good the Bucs were at drafting those years. But then you look at the rest of their careers and it's been all downhill. Cadillac peaked about three games into his NFL career and hasn't averaged more than 4 yards per carry since his rookie year. Clayton has been even worse. He was a rising star when he caught 80 passes for 1,193 yards. Since then, he's caught 139 passes for 1717 yards over the course of 5 seasons. This year, he's caught 14 passes for 204 yards. He's put up a goose-egg 3 times this year. Clearly, he's a bust. But you wouldn't have known that after his first year.
In other news, Kobe is the best NBA player today. Sorry, LeBron James, but show me a ring and you'll get the top spot. Kobe is the guy every other NBA player looks up to now. The scary thing is that Kobe is better this year than last year. This is a guy that scores 40 points with a torn tendon in his index finger. He added at least 4 or 5 post moves this offseason to bring his repertoire up to something like 5,016. If you watch LeBron, you'll realize quickly he's the most talented NBA player, but he hasn't yet put it together. He's getting there, but I'm a bit disappointed that we're not see LeBron destroy people in the post more often. I know, I know: Kobe has the advantage of playing on a better team. The Cavs are very mediocre without their star. Shaq is 35 pounds overweight, Mo Williams is a third banana playing a second banana's role, Anthony Parker's a bench player playing a starter and the Big Z looks and moves like he's 40. But I haven't seen the King take a stranglehold of this team and impose his will on these guys.
In other news, Kobe is the best NBA player today. Sorry, LeBron James, but show me a ring and you'll get the top spot. Kobe is the guy every other NBA player looks up to now. The scary thing is that Kobe is better this year than last year. This is a guy that scores 40 points with a torn tendon in his index finger. He added at least 4 or 5 post moves this offseason to bring his repertoire up to something like 5,016. If you watch LeBron, you'll realize quickly he's the most talented NBA player, but he hasn't yet put it together. He's getting there, but I'm a bit disappointed that we're not see LeBron destroy people in the post more often. I know, I know: Kobe has the advantage of playing on a better team. The Cavs are very mediocre without their star. Shaq is 35 pounds overweight, Mo Williams is a third banana playing a second banana's role, Anthony Parker's a bench player playing a starter and the Big Z looks and moves like he's 40. But I haven't seen the King take a stranglehold of this team and impose his will on these guys.
Monday, November 16, 2009
quick thoughts (it's been a long time coming)
A quick note about my NFL forecast. I, like everyone else who tries to predict the NFL season, was wrong about most things. That would be why I'm the Idiot Fan and not just the Fan.
1. I really like the MNF announcing team. I might be the only one in the world.
2. Going for it on 4th and 2 is playing the percentages. The average NFL play is something like 4.5 yards and most 3rd and 2 and 4th and 2 conversions are successful, especially when you have an offense like the Patriots.
3. However, jesus, what balls on Belicheck. Wow. Also, if you're going to go for it, don't do it with a rinky dink pass to a running back. Play action deep to Moss or to Welker on a crossing route.
4. Peyton is the best QB in the league right now. Better than Brees.
5. It's a toss-up. Brady Quinn, Derek Anderson or Jamarcus Russell, who's worse? I say Russell, but he's at least more talented than Derek Anderson.
6. Speaking of wasted talent, Darius Heyward-Bey and his hands of stone. But at least he's fast, oy vey!
7. The Giants will go on a run. Just a hunch.
8. Andy Reid is the white Art Shell when it comes to clock mismanagement.
9. It should be noted: Andy Reid has been outcoached by Wade Phillips and Norv Turner in consecutive weeks. Wade Phillips and Norv Turner!
10. The Bengals are for real. Time for everyone to acknowledge it. They swept the Ravens and the Steelers and have one more game against the Browns. This team could have homefield advantage through the playoffs.
1. I really like the MNF announcing team. I might be the only one in the world.
2. Going for it on 4th and 2 is playing the percentages. The average NFL play is something like 4.5 yards and most 3rd and 2 and 4th and 2 conversions are successful, especially when you have an offense like the Patriots.
3. However, jesus, what balls on Belicheck. Wow. Also, if you're going to go for it, don't do it with a rinky dink pass to a running back. Play action deep to Moss or to Welker on a crossing route.
4. Peyton is the best QB in the league right now. Better than Brees.
5. It's a toss-up. Brady Quinn, Derek Anderson or Jamarcus Russell, who's worse? I say Russell, but he's at least more talented than Derek Anderson.
6. Speaking of wasted talent, Darius Heyward-Bey and his hands of stone. But at least he's fast, oy vey!
7. The Giants will go on a run. Just a hunch.
8. Andy Reid is the white Art Shell when it comes to clock mismanagement.
9. It should be noted: Andy Reid has been outcoached by Wade Phillips and Norv Turner in consecutive weeks. Wade Phillips and Norv Turner!
10. The Bengals are for real. Time for everyone to acknowledge it. They swept the Ravens and the Steelers and have one more game against the Browns. This team could have homefield advantage through the playoffs.
Saturday, August 29, 2009
the Giant-Size NFL preview part 4 of a million
And another.
AFC West
1. San Diego - A Norv Turner coached team might make the Super Bowl. The Chargers are loaded on both sides of the ball this year, and yet, they're going to give away some games because Norv is not a good coach in the fourth quarter. But they'll cruise to win this division on talent alone. They're the cream of this division's crap and will be that way for the foreseeable future.
Record: 11-5 and a deep playoff run.
2. Oakland Raiders - Well, who else do you want to put here? The Chiefs have a terrible offensive line and a defense that is equal parts old and green. The kids there are lousy (looking at you, Glenn Dorsey), and the vets don't have much in the tank. And Denver is a mess. So that leaves us with the Raiders, a team that just got obliterated 45-7 by the Saints in the preseason. A team with a head coach who might be arrested at some point in the season. I think they have enough talent on offense to be respectable, although their running game really hasn't shown up so far in the preseason. The defense is lousy. Really bad. It's always pretty bad. They have the best corner in football but the defensive line is worthless. The linebackers are decent in coverage but because the line is trash, they don't get any breaks against the run.
Record: Oh God, do I have to? Optimistically, 7-9. Pessimistically, 5-11. And what does that say about how I feel about the rest of this division? Well read on, reader.
3. Kansas City Chiefs - New QB, new GM, new head coach. Same crappy defense. Replacing Herm as the coach is worth a win or two by itself. Their offensive line is really lousy though, and I'm not sure Cassel is going to look half as good in KC as he did in New England. On the upside, the return of Larry Johnson. I'm grasping at straws here.
Record: 5-11. And that's an improvement. Oy vey!
4. Denver Broncos - This team is a mess. They're switching to a 3-4 defense, which fits no one on the team currently. Kyle Orton is replacing Jay Cutler. Let's write that again for emphasis. Kyle Orton is replacing Jay Cutler! And their best receiver has decided to quit on the team before the season starts. On the upside, Eddie Royal will put up good fantasy football numbers.
Record: 4-12, unless they start Chris Simms ahead of Orton. Then it turns into 6-10. A little better, eh?
AFC West
1. San Diego - A Norv Turner coached team might make the Super Bowl. The Chargers are loaded on both sides of the ball this year, and yet, they're going to give away some games because Norv is not a good coach in the fourth quarter. But they'll cruise to win this division on talent alone. They're the cream of this division's crap and will be that way for the foreseeable future.
Record: 11-5 and a deep playoff run.
2. Oakland Raiders - Well, who else do you want to put here? The Chiefs have a terrible offensive line and a defense that is equal parts old and green. The kids there are lousy (looking at you, Glenn Dorsey), and the vets don't have much in the tank. And Denver is a mess. So that leaves us with the Raiders, a team that just got obliterated 45-7 by the Saints in the preseason. A team with a head coach who might be arrested at some point in the season. I think they have enough talent on offense to be respectable, although their running game really hasn't shown up so far in the preseason. The defense is lousy. Really bad. It's always pretty bad. They have the best corner in football but the defensive line is worthless. The linebackers are decent in coverage but because the line is trash, they don't get any breaks against the run.
Record: Oh God, do I have to? Optimistically, 7-9. Pessimistically, 5-11. And what does that say about how I feel about the rest of this division? Well read on, reader.
3. Kansas City Chiefs - New QB, new GM, new head coach. Same crappy defense. Replacing Herm as the coach is worth a win or two by itself. Their offensive line is really lousy though, and I'm not sure Cassel is going to look half as good in KC as he did in New England. On the upside, the return of Larry Johnson. I'm grasping at straws here.
Record: 5-11. And that's an improvement. Oy vey!
4. Denver Broncos - This team is a mess. They're switching to a 3-4 defense, which fits no one on the team currently. Kyle Orton is replacing Jay Cutler. Let's write that again for emphasis. Kyle Orton is replacing Jay Cutler! And their best receiver has decided to quit on the team before the season starts. On the upside, Eddie Royal will put up good fantasy football numbers.
Record: 4-12, unless they start Chris Simms ahead of Orton. Then it turns into 6-10. A little better, eh?
The Giant-Size NFL preview part 3 of a million
These intros keep getting shorter.
AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts - This team is the model of consistency. Pencil them in for 12 wins a year. Peyton looks comfortable with his wideouts and the change in defensive philosophy might do this team some good. They were too passive in the Cover 2 the last couple years. This is one of 4 or 5 legitimate Super Bowl contenders in the AFC.
Record: 12-4 and a return to the AFC championship game.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars - Bounce-back year from the Jags. This is another team that I have a hard time getting a read on, but I know this: David Garrard is actually a very good QB and MJD is a top 3 running back. The offensive line should be much improved and the team should have a giant chip on their shoulder after last year's performance. This is a make or break year for Del Rio. He needs to get his team into the playoffs or he won't be coaching this team next season.
Record: 10-6 and a wildcard spot. I've changed my mind about this team roughly 55 times during the preseason. They could just as easily go 6-10 and I wouldn't be surprised.
3. Houston Texans - Everyone is high on them. They're a popular sleeper pick for the playoffs, which means they won't make it. Look at past examples of popular sleeper playoff/Super Bowl teams:
2008 Cleveland Browns - didn't come close
2007 - New Orleans Saints - didn't make the playoffs
2006 - Carolina Panthers/Miami Dolphins - didn't make the playoffs
2005 - Minnesota Vikings - Love boat scandal, Culpepper's knee blows up, Culpepper has worst year ever, and the Vikes miss the playoffs
So you see the trend here. Houston has a good offense run by a fragile QB. Their defense is getting better and I can't believe that Charlie Casserly has been vindicated in picking Mario Williams over Reggie Bush, but it was the right pick.
Record: 8-8 again.
4. Tennessee Titans - And then they came crashing down. This year, Kerry Collins will remember he is Kerry Collins, the defense will drop off without Haynesworth, and who's that we see in the distance? Why, it's the return of Vince Young, coming back as the starting quarterback in December when the games will be meaningless for this team. Here's what you need to know. They overachieved a lot last year. They think they've addressed weakness at the WR position by adding a rookie and Nate Washington, the Steelers' third option at the position. Nate fuckin' Washington. When he's your number one, just forget about throwing the ball.
Record: 6-10. Really.
AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts - This team is the model of consistency. Pencil them in for 12 wins a year. Peyton looks comfortable with his wideouts and the change in defensive philosophy might do this team some good. They were too passive in the Cover 2 the last couple years. This is one of 4 or 5 legitimate Super Bowl contenders in the AFC.
Record: 12-4 and a return to the AFC championship game.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars - Bounce-back year from the Jags. This is another team that I have a hard time getting a read on, but I know this: David Garrard is actually a very good QB and MJD is a top 3 running back. The offensive line should be much improved and the team should have a giant chip on their shoulder after last year's performance. This is a make or break year for Del Rio. He needs to get his team into the playoffs or he won't be coaching this team next season.
Record: 10-6 and a wildcard spot. I've changed my mind about this team roughly 55 times during the preseason. They could just as easily go 6-10 and I wouldn't be surprised.
3. Houston Texans - Everyone is high on them. They're a popular sleeper pick for the playoffs, which means they won't make it. Look at past examples of popular sleeper playoff/Super Bowl teams:
2008 Cleveland Browns - didn't come close
2007 - New Orleans Saints - didn't make the playoffs
2006 - Carolina Panthers/Miami Dolphins - didn't make the playoffs
2005 - Minnesota Vikings - Love boat scandal, Culpepper's knee blows up, Culpepper has worst year ever, and the Vikes miss the playoffs
So you see the trend here. Houston has a good offense run by a fragile QB. Their defense is getting better and I can't believe that Charlie Casserly has been vindicated in picking Mario Williams over Reggie Bush, but it was the right pick.
Record: 8-8 again.
4. Tennessee Titans - And then they came crashing down. This year, Kerry Collins will remember he is Kerry Collins, the defense will drop off without Haynesworth, and who's that we see in the distance? Why, it's the return of Vince Young, coming back as the starting quarterback in December when the games will be meaningless for this team. Here's what you need to know. They overachieved a lot last year. They think they've addressed weakness at the WR position by adding a rookie and Nate Washington, the Steelers' third option at the position. Nate fuckin' Washington. When he's your number one, just forget about throwing the ball.
Record: 6-10. Really.
The Giant-Size NFL preview part 2 of a million
Here we are again. You, potentially reading this blog. Me, writing nonsense about sports that I pretend to know about. Shall we get to it then?
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers - Feels like it's going to be a bit of a letdown year for the Steelers. I don't know why and don't have solid evidence to back it up, but Big Ben's legal issues are an unnecessary distraction and I'm not sure this team is particularly hungry.
Record: 11-5 and a quick playoff exit.
2. Baltimore Ravens - Yes, they lost some talent on the defense. Yes, they lost Rob Ryan, their talented defensive coordinator. Yes, their receivers aren't great. But Flacco is making the leap this year. He's the first real QB that the Ravens have ever had. The defense still has Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, and Nagata might be the best defensive tackle in the league. Wait, why do I have them at number 2 in this division? I do have to give the defending champs a little respect.
Record: 11-5 and a nice playoff run as a wildcard team.
3. Cincinnati Bengals - The return of the high-powered Bengals offense is not enough to offset the return of the matador Bengals defense. I won't believe in their defense until I see some results on the field during actual games that count.
Record: 8-8, but they'll be sniffing the wildcard until the end of the year.
4. Cleveland Browns - Not good. How was this team talked about as a Super Bowl contender last year? Derek Anderson as a Super Bowl QB? Come on. Brady Quinn is a small improvement, but this team has already fallen apart and we're not yet to the games that count.
Record: 3-13, just an ugly year for this team. They seemed to have already tuned out Eric Mangini. Has a team ever quit on a new head coach in the preseason?
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers - Feels like it's going to be a bit of a letdown year for the Steelers. I don't know why and don't have solid evidence to back it up, but Big Ben's legal issues are an unnecessary distraction and I'm not sure this team is particularly hungry.
Record: 11-5 and a quick playoff exit.
2. Baltimore Ravens - Yes, they lost some talent on the defense. Yes, they lost Rob Ryan, their talented defensive coordinator. Yes, their receivers aren't great. But Flacco is making the leap this year. He's the first real QB that the Ravens have ever had. The defense still has Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, and Nagata might be the best defensive tackle in the league. Wait, why do I have them at number 2 in this division? I do have to give the defending champs a little respect.
Record: 11-5 and a nice playoff run as a wildcard team.
3. Cincinnati Bengals - The return of the high-powered Bengals offense is not enough to offset the return of the matador Bengals defense. I won't believe in their defense until I see some results on the field during actual games that count.
Record: 8-8, but they'll be sniffing the wildcard until the end of the year.
4. Cleveland Browns - Not good. How was this team talked about as a Super Bowl contender last year? Derek Anderson as a Super Bowl QB? Come on. Brady Quinn is a small improvement, but this team has already fallen apart and we're not yet to the games that count.
Record: 3-13, just an ugly year for this team. They seemed to have already tuned out Eric Mangini. Has a team ever quit on a new head coach in the preseason?
Thursday, August 27, 2009
The Giant-Size NFL preview part 1 of a million
I keep saying this: Thank God for football season. It was way too long. Even the crappy preseason has been enough to tide me over until mid-September. We're getting a decent idea of what to expect from teams, even though preseason won/loss records are meaningless and not a good indicator of regular season success (see 2008 Detroit Lions and 2006 Oakland Raiders). But you can still tell a bit about a team by their training camp and the first quarters of preseason games. Again, the Raiders were terrible on offense the past few years in camp and the opening quarters and sure enough, they were equally terrible on offense during the regular season. So without further ado,
Your 2009 NFL season predictions that you can take to the bank (and lose a lot of money on, much like a bank these days, actually):
AFC East
1. The Patriots - Ugh. I hate this team, but they look so damn good. Robo-Brady may wreak havoc, they have arguably the best receiving corp in the league (though they're getting a little old between Moss and Galloway), the defense should be 100 times better and they have something to prove. Plus, they still have the best head coach in the league. Shit, this team could go 14-2 this year. A couple things worry me: their running backs are ordinary (I know, it didn't matter when they went 16-0) and their offensive line is not fantastic. They were manhandled by the Bengals in a preseason game. Manhandled by the Bengals. Thought I should repeat that because it just seems so shocking. Still, their linebackers are much improved, their defensive line is always top-notch, the corners are well, the Pats always get by with rubbish corners.
Record: 13-3
2. Miami Dolphins - Miami has the Dolphins, the greatest football team. Well not this year. Plus, the stupid team remixed the song. Bad karma potential there. I like the Dolphins, I really do. They overachieved big time last year, but they're well-coached and they have a decent QB in Pennington. Plus, Pennington actually knows the playbook this year. He was the most accurate QB in the league last year and he didn't know the playbook. Pretty amazing actually. Ted Ginn Jr. is putting it together and looks like a legit number one receiver. They have depth at that position this year too. I like Fasano as their tight end. The defense looks to be improved, though I'm not completely sold the Gibril Wilson/Yeremiah Bell combo at safety yet.
Record: 9-7. Sorry, Dolfans, your team is good, not great.
3. The Buffalo Bills - The TO experiment. That's what this season boils down to. Here's what TO can't cover up:
a. Their running back is crazy/unreliable
b. Their defense can be pushed around
c. Their head coach is one of the worst game managers in the league.
It's the last one that will kill them this year. I posted about this previously.
Record: 7-9 (again!). It could blow up completely and they end up being 5-11. I don't see a winning record for them.
4. The J-E-T-S - I like Rex Ryan. I kind of like the defense. I think Mark Sanchez will be a good QB, just not this year. They get by on sheer guts and bravado this year. Watch out for next year though. This team will make a major leap in 2010.
Record: 6-10.
Your 2009 NFL season predictions that you can take to the bank (and lose a lot of money on, much like a bank these days, actually):
AFC East
1. The Patriots - Ugh. I hate this team, but they look so damn good. Robo-Brady may wreak havoc, they have arguably the best receiving corp in the league (though they're getting a little old between Moss and Galloway), the defense should be 100 times better and they have something to prove. Plus, they still have the best head coach in the league. Shit, this team could go 14-2 this year. A couple things worry me: their running backs are ordinary (I know, it didn't matter when they went 16-0) and their offensive line is not fantastic. They were manhandled by the Bengals in a preseason game. Manhandled by the Bengals. Thought I should repeat that because it just seems so shocking. Still, their linebackers are much improved, their defensive line is always top-notch, the corners are well, the Pats always get by with rubbish corners.
Record: 13-3
2. Miami Dolphins - Miami has the Dolphins, the greatest football team. Well not this year. Plus, the stupid team remixed the song. Bad karma potential there. I like the Dolphins, I really do. They overachieved big time last year, but they're well-coached and they have a decent QB in Pennington. Plus, Pennington actually knows the playbook this year. He was the most accurate QB in the league last year and he didn't know the playbook. Pretty amazing actually. Ted Ginn Jr. is putting it together and looks like a legit number one receiver. They have depth at that position this year too. I like Fasano as their tight end. The defense looks to be improved, though I'm not completely sold the Gibril Wilson/Yeremiah Bell combo at safety yet.
Record: 9-7. Sorry, Dolfans, your team is good, not great.
3. The Buffalo Bills - The TO experiment. That's what this season boils down to. Here's what TO can't cover up:
a. Their running back is crazy/unreliable
b. Their defense can be pushed around
c. Their head coach is one of the worst game managers in the league.
It's the last one that will kill them this year. I posted about this previously.
Record: 7-9 (again!). It could blow up completely and they end up being 5-11. I don't see a winning record for them.
4. The J-E-T-S - I like Rex Ryan. I kind of like the defense. I think Mark Sanchez will be a good QB, just not this year. They get by on sheer guts and bravado this year. Watch out for next year though. This team will make a major leap in 2010.
Record: 6-10.
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