Sunday, December 2, 2007

Heisman Race and BCS mess

First, needless to say, I'm an idiot. I pretty much called this whole BCS mess for the last weekend and foresaw an LSU-Ohio State matchup but forgot to post about it. And sure enough, West Virginia and Missouri choked, though in Missouri's case, even Las Vegas expected them to lose. West Virginia came up small in a big situation like they always seem to do.
So why LSU and Ohio State? The Ohio State part is easy. They're a one-loss conference champion and those are rare this season, so they're in. The other conference champs? LSU destroyed Virginia Tech earlier this year, so they get the nod over them. USC lost to Stanford earlier this year, so they're automatically out. West Virginia just lost to Pitt so they're out. And then there's Oklahoma, who just demolished #1 Missouri. If LSU is in over Oklahoma, voters are saying basically that the SEC is a tougher conference than the Big 12 this year, and the Big 12 actually had a pretty good year. I think it should actually be Oklahoma-LSU in the BCS title game in the ultimate snub of the Big 10. Let's face it, the Big 10 was lousy this year and winning it was no great accomplishment. However this mess gets sorted out, there's going to be at least one team (either Ohio State, LSU or Oklahoma) that will have a legitimate gripe against the BCS. Then there's Hawaii, who arguably played a tougher schedule than Ohio State did this year. So add them in there too, though I don't think any team has ever jumped more than 10 spots in a poll before.

While this weekend further muddled up the BCS championship game, the Heisman race has never been clearer. The list of Heisman candidates and why they will or won't win:

Matt Ryan - threw 18 INTs this year. End of story. He's not that good, no matter how much ESPN and SI try to hype him up. I think he could be a pretty good NFL quarterback, but he turns the ball over.

Pat White - just lost to Pitt, has fumbled way too much throughout the season.

Dennis Dixon - had a great case to be the Heisman until he got injured. Then again, Oregon hasn't won since, so he might be the most valuable player to his team.

Colt Brennan - plays in the throw-happy Hawaii offense so his numbers are inflated a bit. Threw 14 INTs this year. Did lead his team to an undefeated season, but played no one all year long with the exception of Boise State.

Chase Daniels - put up great numbers this season (69.7 completion %, 33 TDs, 10 INTs), but his games against Oklahoma might have doomed him. Daniels had a great chance to shine in the national spotlight, but he couldn't lead his team to victory or even a close loss.

Darren McFadden - great numbers, but people almost expected more. Plays on a 4 loss team, which hurts. Had 3 monster games (Alabama, LSU, and South Carolina), two of which were on the road and 2 subpar games (Mississippi State and Auburn, 0 TD rushing and 3.1 and 2.5 YPC respectively). Played with less talent around him than most candidates.

Tim Tebow - Plays on a 3 loss team. Rushed for more than 800 yards and threw for more than 3,000 yards. Leading rusher and passer on his team. Broke the record for most rushing touchdowns in the SEC. College Football's only 20-20 man, throwing for 29 TDs and rushing for 22 TDs. Had 2 TDs in every game, even in down games against Auburn and Georgia. Had an unbelievable 7 TD (2 passing, 5 rushing) game against South Carolina.

It seems like a two-man race for the Heisman, but really, it's not. Tebow put up TD numbers that no one has ever seen, and TDs are the most important statistic. He somehow surpassed expectations and hype after helping Florida win the BCS championship as a freshman. It has to be Tebow this year.

Friday, November 23, 2007

What we've learned this season

1. LSU was a fraud.
I started to realize this from the first time I saw Matt Flynn play. I thought, here is a quarterback surrounded by the best possible supporting cast, but he's not up to starring. Les Miles compensated for that by gambling and riding a 3 headed monster at running back. The defense got exposed by Florida and Kentucky and hasn't been dominant since. So Les gambled more and more, playing percentages with fourth down conversions. LSU should have lost to Florida and Auburn this season, but their success on fourth down was the difference.

2. Nebraska might be the biggest disappointment this year.
The Cornhuskers were supposed to be a top 25 team this year and a dark horse national championship contender. Instead, they won't make a bowl game, their coach is a lock to get fired and their defense gives up 65 points to Colorado. The blackshirts have become the black and blue shirts, filled with battered egos and bruises from getting run over (277 yards to Colorado this week).

3. Tim Tebow is the best sophomore quarterback ever.
That's not an overstatement. No one has had a season like him. 20 passing TDs, 20 rushing TDs. He now holds the SEC single season rushing touchdowns record. He should win the Heisman.

4. Texas has officially returned to its previously simply good, not great status.
Minus Vince Young, Texas isn't invincible. They're still pretty good, capable of beating most teams on any given Saturday, but it's now been 2 straight losses to Texas A&M and that's how you can tell that they just aren't the same without the game-saving, playmaking quarterback.

5. This BCS Championship game is going to have at least one team unaccustomed to playing in REALLY BIG games.
Kansas, Mizzou, West Virginia, Ohio State. Which of these does not belong? Ohio State is used to getting to the big game, but the other three haven't sniffed the BCS Championship game in previous years. Mizzou and Kansas have never even been mentioned in the same breath as National Championship since the inception of the BCS.

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Who's getting the ax first?

Yes, it's time to start looking at the coaches on the hottest seat. Let's go down the list.

Good as Gone:
Scott Linehan - Finally won a game, but unless he can string together 6 or 7 more where that one came from, he won't see what has to be a vastly improved Rams team take the field next season.

Coaching his way out of the NFL:
Cam Cameron - Still hasn't won a game. Team hasn't shown any improvement. He isn't starting rookies, so there's a possibility that the team could actually be worse next year. Hard to go worse than 0-16, but Cam's not setting up the future too well.

There's a fire underneath that seat, yet you're not coaching like there's a fire under your ass:
Brad Childress - Wow, bad. Got shut out by Green Bay. The only things he was able to hang his hat on, running and run defense, didn't show up in that game. The run defense was exposed by Ryan Grant. You've probably never heard of him. The pass defense is atrocious as always. They can't pass the ball. Now Adrian Peterson is out and there's nothing left for the Vikings. Plus, Childress loves to throw people that could help the team (Daunte Culpepper, Jeff George, Troy Williamson) under a bus.

The Guru that Wasn't:
Brian Billick - the most secure of the bunch, but coaching his way out of a job. Got Willis McGahee in the offseason only to have the offense pass twice as much as it runs. The defense doesn't scare anyone anymore and it looks like their Super Bowl window closed last year against the Colts in the playoffs. Not getting better with the current staff and roster. Plus, his obvious successor is already on staff: Rex Ryan.

Three Year Circle:
Mike Nolan - Nice guy, sharp dresser, but we've been through this before, haven't we? Peaked with a 7-9 season and an offense that scored 298 points and a defense that gave up 412. Ouch. It's looking more like his first season where the 49ers went 4-12 and couldn't score or defend anyone. Worse yet, they gave their 1st round pick to the Pats in exchange for Left Turnstile Joe Staley. The upside is there's a lot more talent on this team due to a couple of good drafts. The foundation for a Chiefs-style Big 3 (QB, RB, TE) is there. Will the next coach be able to take advantage of it?

Mangenius to Mandummy in one year:
Eric Mangini - Brilliant against a soft schedule last year, lousy against a better schedule this year. Angered the Patriots this year and hasn't been able to do much on either side of the ball. Forced the 3-4 defense on a team that didn't have the right personnel for it. Got a good RB, but the offense seems to have regressed. They thought they were so close last year. This year, they'll be lucky to get close to the Bills and far from the Dolphins.

Family problems lead to coaching problems:
Andy Reid - He ain't going anywhere unless he decides he wants to. Consistently, one of the best regular season coaches, yet his family situation is so messed up right now that he might put himself on the hot seat.

From Super Bowl to consistent Super Bust:
John Fox - He just can't get it done. There's no other way to put it. Looked brilliant in the Super Bowl year, had a great playoff run with Steve Smith and spare parts and then has consistently underachieved. In fairness, Jake Delhomme peaked his first year as a starter, but they could sure use him now. The running game is wildly inconsistent. DeAngelo Williams hasn't become the star people thought he would. David Carr is a big bust in Carolina. Turns out he just has a penchant for taking sacks. Maybe Houston's line wasn't that bad after all. The defense with all those big names and contracts is non-existent. He's still a pretty decent coach, but he might be killed by all those lofty expectations.

Monday, November 12, 2007

Keep the Sonics in Seattle

I shouldn't even have to post this. Moving the Sonics is like moving the Suns or the Pacers or Spurs. It just should not be done. The Seattle Supersonics have provided many great memories for the city of Seattle. Gary Payton, Shawn Kemp (before he got fat), Ray Allen, their NBA Finals run in 95-96, their surprisingly playoff run in 04-05, the 79 championship team, Lenny Wilkens, Nate McMillan, Spencer Haywood, the X-man, Dennis Johnson, Vin Baker (before he got fat), Derrick McKey's one good season, Desmond Mason's high-flying dunks, Flip Murray's one stretch of good games back in 03 when he was going off on a nightly basis for like a week and then disappeared forever, Paul Silas, that time Jerome James played half-way decent defense against Tim Duncan, Rashard Lewis draining 3s in the corner, drafting Kevin Durant. Look, Seattle is a world-class city that loves its Sonics. Oklahoma City just doesn't have the basketball tradition that the great Northwest does. Not a knock on Oklahoma City, I'm sure it's a fine city, but the Supersonics are Seattle sports. They were the first professional franchise in the city, and they're still the only ones to win a championship. Please, David Stern, don't take this team away from this city. Don't make the league even more generic by having a team name and a city that don't match (see Utah Jazz). Or worse yet, don't rename the team and make them into a generic animal name. Don't relegate the Northwest into cheering exclusive for the Portland Trailblazers. Think of the rivalry that could grow between the Blazers and Sonics over the next 10 years with Durant and Oden in their primes. In Oklahoma City, the Sonics become just another team, akin to the Charlotte Bobcats or the New Orleans Hornets. Hey, the Hornets are a fine team with a great point guard, but I just can't get excited about them. There's not a lot of history there. Owners move teams if they're not making money or if the fan base evaporates. This is so not the case with the Sonics. The new owner just happens to be from Oklahoma City and wants to move the team just because of that fact:

We didn’t buy the team to keep it in Seattle; we hoped to come here.” McLendon indicated that finances might not be the prime consideration in a move, stating that the team would likely perform better financially in Seattle.

Don't let this happen, NBA!

Monday, November 5, 2007

Fire Coach Cam?? Why Bother

Lemon to remain Dolphins starter


AP says that Coach Cam is giving Lemon the start again. Coach Cam, you are 0-8. You are not going to be 8-8 this year. It's not going to happen unless you trade your entire team for the Patriots entire team. The future is now. Play Beck. He's 26 years old already. You cannot afford to stash him away. He has 10 years at most in the league as a starting QB. Better make use of that now. You know what you have in Lemon. Lemon is a OK quarterback that can manage a game as long as you power rush 40 times a game and have Lemon throw about 15-20 times. Basically, use him like a Quinn Gray in Jax. Since this does not happen in Miami, Lemon has yet to win a game for the Fins this year. To repeat, Lemon is not a playmaker. He does not make things happen and teammates are not rallying around him. You need to see Beck. You need to see him as much as possible between now and the end of the season. There's a very good chance that the Fins will be drafting #1 overall. If a franchise quarterback is in that draft sitting there, the Fins cannot afford to pass that up again. We also need to find out if passing on Quinn was a mistake this year (I maintain that it was, prove me wrong, Coach Cam).

I say "fire Coach Cam? why bother" because it's looking like 0-16 for the fins or at best 2-14, and either of those records will probably get Coach Cam fired and the whole team blown up. I don't know what Cam saw in this team that made him think they were close to the playoffs. Everyone else (and I mean everyone) saw an aging defense, a punchless offense and nothing special on either side of the ball outside of Jason Taylor. Everyone knew (including Jason Taylor) that Trent Green was one hit away from a likely retirement and of course, that happened. Even if it didn't, Trent Green was not going to be a QB to maximize marginal talent. He had Gonzo and Priest and later LJ all those years in KC. His WRs may have been marginal, but he had the benefit of playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the league.

Do the right thing, Coach Cam. Play Beck. I think he gives you a better chance of winning than Lemon does. The team might be able to rally around him. We know what Lemon can do (not much, unfortunately). Let's see Beck. Maybe he's a playmaker. Maybe not. We'll never know if he's glued to the bench. Play Beck and run the ball with Chatman and another rookie that's glued to the bench, Lorenzo Booker. Play him too. Run your backs 35 times a game at least. Your team has demonstrated a good ability to power rush. That has been the only offensive strength all year. Power rush and play action, and maybe Beck will give you the victory that will allow you to avoid the most embarrassing head coaching resume of all time, Coach Cam.

Friday, November 2, 2007

Quick Hits for ya now

Dodgers hire Joe Torre, team still stinks

Kobe's staying put...for now


Every sports team in Miami sucks right now

Also, the Miami Herald publishes a satirical article about A-Rod going to the Marlins
Um, Miami Herald, this cheapskate franchise didn't even keep their manager of the year. They're thinking about trading Miguel Cabrera because he might make too much money next year. What makes you think they'll go after A-Rod and his bloated salary demands.

Daunte Culpepper still sucks, in case you were wondering, but he would have been a better option than Trent Green or Cleo Lemon.

THE HUGEST FUCKING GAME OF ALL TIME

Colts-Pats, this Sunday. Let the hype continue. Gregg Easterbrook somewhat jokingly refers to it as the NFL's battle of good vs. evil. This is seriously the most anticipated sporting event for ESPN since the last most anticipated sporting event. This is the Super Duper Bowl. The Pats represent bad sportsmanship, have a jerk for a coach and a pretty boy douche for a quarterback. The Colts represent glorious freedom and capitalism. They have a nice guy best selling author for a coach, a quarterback that's on every football related commercial and a reputation for good sportsmanship. They're the reigning champs. Everything the Pats did this off-season was a response to Reche dropping that pass in the AFC Championship game.

Will the Pats blow out the Colts like everyone else?
No.

Will Brady connect to Moss?
Yes. But expect Bob Sanders to hit Moss every time he gets a chance.

Who will be the star of this game?
Dallas Clark. Everyone expects the other guys to have big games, but Dallas always seems to come up big at the right time.

Will NFL karma play a role in this game?
Yes. This is the game where the Pats' poor sportsmanship, their running up the score comes back to bite them. They're basically a bully that's going to get punched for the first time and they won't like it. Here's the thing about the Pats. They cheated, got caught and then got pissed about and decided to vow to destroy and embarrass the rest of the NFL. But it still doesn't change the fact that they cheated. They were always in the wrong here. They're really just pissed that they got caught. Though it is nice to have a team be a villain again. And anyone who knows me knows that I always thought they were this villainous team disguised as a team pushed by the mainstream sports media as America's team because their name is the Patriots.

Final score?
Colts 31, Pats 24

Friday, October 26, 2007

So who's worse...

The 0-7 Miami Dolphins or the 0-7 St. Louis Rams?

Let's turn to the tale of the tape for this one.

Dolphins: 0-7
Rams: 0-7
Advantage: the rest of the NFL

Dolphins points scored: 156 (2nd best in the AFC East)
Rams points scored: 79 (1 point better than the 2-4 49ers. The worst show on turf is still better than the worst show on grass)
Advantage: Dolphins


Dolphins points allowed: 231 (worst in the NFL)
Rams points allowed: 192 (tied with Jets for 2nd worst in the NFL)
Advantage: the rest of the NFL; Rams by a hair.

QB status:
Dolphins: Cleo Lemon (plays up to his last name at times), Trent Green on IR (played like he was Green before the injury at times), 38 year old rookie John Beck
Rams: injured Marc Bulger (good when healthy), Gus Ferrotte (former Dolphins starter)

Coaches:
Dolphins: Cam Cameron - former offensive coordinator for the Chargers, perhaps overmatched as a head coach. Not losing his team yet.
Rams: Scott Linehan - former offensive coordinator for the Dolphins and Vikings, overmatched as a head coach. Losing his team.

It's hard to tell from this. Both teams look really bad when you line them up against each other. So one final category.

How close has each team been in their games?

Dolphins:
13-16 loss to Redskins - definitely in it until the end
20-37 loss to the Cowboys - not even close
28-31 loss to the Jets - very close, but it's the friggin' Jets.
17-35 loss to the Raiders - made Daunte look like an MVP again
19-22 loss to the Texans - close, but no cigar
31-41 loss to the Browns - not as close as the score looks
28-49 loss to the Patriots - was 42-7 at the half!

Rams:
13-27 loss to the Panthers - not close at all
16-17 loss to the 49ers - heartbreaking
3-24 loss to the Bucs - ouch
7-35 loss to the Cowboys - put up less of a fight than the Fins did
31-34 loss to the Cardinals - at least they finally scored points
3-22 loss to the Ravens - Gus Ferrotte makes the Ravens look like it's 2000 again
6-33 loss to the Seahawks - made the Seahawks look like the 2000 Ravens


Rams were in it in two games, the Dolphins three games.

So the Dolphins are slightly better than the Rams, but really they're both 0-7, which is terrible. If you combine the Rams offense with the Dolphins defense, you'd have perhaps the worst team statistically ever. Who would have ever thought that?

Weekend Predictions

Red Sox in 2, it seems.
The poor Rockies just don't seem to be able to do much. It's still weird to expect the Red Sox to win a World Series after failing for so many years.

Florida-Georgia
Florida owns Georgia. Why should this year be any different?

Boston College-Virginia Tech
Boston College in a low scoring game that showcases overrated Heisman candidate Matt Ryan doing nothing for the first 3.5 quarters and then rallying his team to victory. Oh wait, that already happened.

Ohio State - Penn State
Ohio State owns the Big 11. But it should be close.

USC over Oregon
Just because friggin' USC never loses when they're expected to.

Patriots over whoever
Is it a bye week for them already? They'll put up 38 points on that too.

London fans sleeping over Dolphins-Giants game
Seriously, aside from the jet lag factor, this shouldn't be close. Which means of course...

Dolphins over Giants

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Dallas vs. Pats analysis plus MLB's worst nightmare

For Frances: Dallas wasn't ready for the Pats. Their coach chickened out on a 4th and goal call and kicked a field goal instead of going for a TD to get them back in the game. The Boys are still having a good season though. They should make the playoffs and might even win the NFC.

As for baseball, the Red Sox are on life support and it looks like the MLB ratings apocalypse will soon be upon us. The Indians vs. the Rockies. In NY, no one even knows that baseball is still happening. Every day, it's will Joe get fired? Will Don Mattingly be the new manager or maybe Joe Girardi? Does it even matter? Until the Yanks figure out that their rotation is trash, their starting lineup too one dimensional, and that their post-season aura of invincibility was demolished long ago and can no longer carry them, Joe Torre or anyone won't be leading them to World Series. Nobody on that team is hungry for a World Series. The team that used to boast a ton of Mr. Clutches, from the Babe to Reggie Jackson to Paul O'Neill and Derek Jeter has become the team of A-Rod, the anti-clutch.

Back to the Sox for a last thought. They're going to go with their best pitcher, Josh Beckett, so they still have a chance. Cleveland's fan base is used to disappointment (see entire post-season history of Cavs, Browns and Indians), so if they lose the next game, the team and the fan base will start to get a "here we go again" feeling that the Boston fans used to have before they kicked that by killing the Yankees.

Fins Trade Chambers; Submit to Reality

http://www.miamiherald.com/611/story/273780.html

The Miami Dolphins have traded Chris Chambers for a 2nd round draft pick. Chambers is best known for dropping clutch catches, showing flashes of promise, putting together a few memorable games and never emerging as a consistent playmaker.

Thursday, October 11, 2007

Easy Q&A

1. What's wrong with the Miami Dolphins?
As usual, the Dolphins can't get anything out of the quarterback position. It seemed like Trent Green was at least going to be a competent caretaker of the offense until he got his eggs scrambled again. Now we're left to see if Cleo Lemon is more than just a funny name. At least until John Beck is ready to step in and prove that he was worth skipping Quinn for. On defense, their secondary is cover your eyes bad. Zach Thomas has concussion problems. On the bright side, Jason Taylor is still a force and Matt Roth is coming into his own at DE.

2. What's wrong with Larry Johnson?
Herm Edwards. He ran Larry into the ground last year and is employing a stone-age offensive game plan that allows defenses to crowd the line of scrimmage without any fear of being burned by a big play. That, and the Chiefs' offensive line isn't what it used to be. Carl Petersen let the Chiefs get really old along the line without drafting suitable replacements. They better hope Brodie Croyle is the real deal (so far, nothing indicates that this is the case) or they're going to be bad for a while.

3. What's wrong with the AFC West?
Coaching. Norv Turner and Herm Edwards replaced Marty and Dick. Shanahan remains the same but so far, Jay Cutler hasn't been the star QB he was hyped up to be. The Broncos might have been better off letting Cutler learn from the bench a little more while Jake Plummer continued to lead them into the playoffs. The Raiders, on the other hand, made the giant leap forward by exchanging Art Shell for Lane Kiffin.

4. How do you beat the Patriots?
There is a way, despite what we've seen so far. Jam the receivers at the line of scrimmage, hit them hard if/when they catch the ball. Make them pay for going over the middle and double up on Moss. Then you have to disguise your coverages to confuse Brady. You CAN'T just rush four against that line like Cleveland did all game. You have to take a page out of the New England playbook and bring pressure from all angles. I think what the Bills did defensively against the Cowboys for 3 1/2 quarters would work against the Pats. Throw unorthodox looks at them. And stop the run. I didn't say it was easy.

5. Why did the Bills lose that game to the Cowboys?
Coaching. Dick Jauron made quite a few blunders throughout the game. Throwing on 3rd and seven when going conservative and running the ball would have ensured an easy field goal in the fourth quarter. Calling a prevent defense late in the game and then somehow letting the Cowboys having the sideline was another egregious gaffe. Buffalo's been close in every game except the game against the Pats. But they're losing the close ones because Jauron is making one or two game altering coaching mistakes every game.

Friday, October 5, 2007

Why the Chargers are not Making the Playoffs this Year

1st and 5 at KC 5(4:03) (Shotgun) P.Rivers pass incomplete short right to V.Jackson.
2nd and 5 at KC 5(3:58) (Shotgun) P.Rivers pass incomplete to M.Floyd.
Timeout #1 by KC at 03:53.
3rd and 5 at KC 5(3:53) P.Rivers pass incomplete.
4th and 5 at KC 5(3:46) (Shotgun) P.Rivers pass incomplete short left to C.Davis (J.Page).

Notice the complete lack of LaDainian Tomlinson in this series. Norv and the Chargers, you have the best running back in football and one of the best drive blocking lines in the NFL. You also have a mediocre set of wide receivers and a quarterback who is only in his second year of starting for the team. This is a no brainer if ever there was one. Anyone, ANYONE can see the obvious. Run Tomlinson all four times if you need to. He'll pick up the 5 yards. They didn't even have Rivers throw to Antonio Gates, who's the only consistently good receiver the Chargers have and is BY FAR their best red zone receiver.

This leads to another thought. Would the Raiders of Kerry Collins, LaMont Jordan, Jerry Porter and Randy Moss made the playoffs in the hands of a capable coach? There was an awful lot of offensive talent on that team and yet they consistently underachieved.

My favorite line from the sports media comes from Peter King of SI who says he believes Norv will figure out that he should give Tomlinson more than 3 carries in the second half. He needs to figure this out???? Why does he need time to figure this out? This should be like a reflex action for him. Chargers offense on the field, run Tomlinson. At least this year we're learning that a coach does make a difference on the team. All the talent in the world (which the Chargers were always overrated in that department anyway, no secondary and no wide receivers does not mean this team has an abundance of talent like some think) doesn't mean much if there's no one to guide it.

Saturday, September 22, 2007

NFL Week 3 Pregame Analysis

Chargers at Green Bay
It's entirely possible (and even likely) that Norv Turner's team is in stage one of giving up on their coach. This is a Norv Turner staple. This Chargers team has a lot of talent, but they have a weak secondary and average WRs. Green Bay, on the other hand, has looked like a team that has average talent that is being coached up by a good coaching staff. Their defense is very good. The offense is finding itself. Brandon Jackson and DeShawn Wynn might be good enough at the RB position to propel this team to the playoffs. Plus, this game is at Green Bay. Norv Turner on the road is not a good thing. Take the Chargers out of the top tier of AFC teams when they lose this game.

Dolphins at Jets
Let's just say I'm not sold on Cam Cameron at all. Run the ball, man. The Dolphins passing offense isn't good enough for Cam to get away from Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman so early in the game. And have you ever heard of a feature back that only got 11 carries a game? I can tell you what Ronnie Brown's stat line is going to be: 11 carries, 33 yards, 0 TDs. It's been this way the past two weeks. Meanwhile, the Jets can pressure any QB and can't get the running game going either. It's really a toss-up but Mangenie will cook up some magic on defense to confuse Trent Green and eek out a win.

Vikings at Chiefs
Let's review. The Vikings run the ball well and defend the run well. The Vikings' weak spot has been their secondary. The Chiefs haven't really done much well to this point, but they supposedly run the ball well and don't have all that strong of a passing game. On paper this favors the Vikings. Well, let's look at the coaches. Brad Childress hasn't distinguished himself in either direction. Herm Edwards has a history of dogging the first four or five games of the season before getting on a roll. Again, advantage Vikings. Damon Huard has the edge over Tarvaris Jackson at QB, but Childress could and should run Adrian Peterson 35 times this game and have Tarvaris run a few times. Be brave, Brad. Call an unbalanced game and run three times more than you pass. The Arrowhead factor, by the way, has always been overrated. Vikes should take it.

Lions at Eagles
The Lions 4 WR sets are hard to defend, but there's a way to beat that spread. Pressure the QB. Expect Jim Johnson to blitz big all game to get to Kitna. That may be the only way the Eagles stop that Lion offense. Read that sentence again and think if you would have ever seen that written down. The Lions shredded the Raiders because Rob Ryan went too conservative in his defense. On offense, the Eagles are just going to have to give Westbrook 20 plus carries and put McNabb in the Jeff Garcia role from last season. It's obvious Donovan isn't close to 100% yet.

Bills at Patriots
No surprises here. Let's say Pats win this one 38-14 and make it three in a row with the same score. Buffalo has the advantage in 0 areas in this game. Keep that in mind when you're watching the Pats toy with them this week.

49ers at Steelers
Here's where we learn about the makeup of this 49er team. The 49ers should keep it interesting with Frank Gore carrying the load, but the Steelers have just too many advantages on defense and offense to lose a game like this at home. This also looks like the type of win that will garner all sorts of unnecessary hype for this Pittsburgh team only for them to get overconfident and blow it the next week against the Cardinals.

Rams at Buccaneers
What have the Rams shown this season that suggests they'll win this game on the road?

Cardinals at Ravens
I'd like to pick the upset, but it's just not happening against a Ravens defense that plays pissed off even when they're not really pissed off.

Colts at Texans
Yeah right. Just forget it. The Colts are too good early in the season to give one up here. If this was week 13 or so, then maybe, but not now. Peyton picks apart an always weak Houston secondary. Matt Schaub goes in without his best WR and I don't think that Jacoby Jones or Kevin Walter are up to the task. Colts win big.

Jaguars at Broncos
Finally, fantasy owners can rejoice. Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor run amok, but alas it's not enough as Denver's CB tandem picks off David Garrard a few times to give Denver another close win.

Browns at Raiders
The Browns on the road? They do have a history of beating the Raiders in recent years, but it's not happening again this year. Derek Anderson gets brought back to earth and LaMont Jordan continues to run wild.

Bengals at Seahawks
Everyone scores bunches of points, and the Seahawks come out on top. Why? Because the shootout favors the home team and the team that can actually make one stop and that team is definitely not the Cincinnati Bengals.

Panthers at Falcons
Both teams aren't very good, but the Panthers are slightly better. That said, the Falcons should win. Why? Because sometimes the NFL doesn't make any sense.

Giants at Redskins
A team that self-destructs in Week 2 will not win games in Week 3. The Redskins, on the other hand, look like a playoff team with a good coach, a good defense, a gamebreaker at WR, an incredibly underrated TE, two good RBs and a improving QB.

Cowboys at Bears
The Bears play defense; the Cowboys do not. Discount the Rex Grossman factor. He played at least 5 good games last year, and this will be his first one this year.

Titans at Saints
The Saints are too talented on offense to go 0-3 to start the season. The Saints will be at home, which always helps. But don't expect it to be easy. The Titans have a good and very underrated defense. They find ways to bring pressure and are almost never vanilla. The Saints defense just doesn't look good in any way. But being at home should help them get a few stops against a just okay Titans offense and Drew Brees and Co. should put up enough points to get the job done.

Side note: If Deuce McAllister doesn't get 20-25 carries this game, Sean Payton's going to start looking like an idiot coach.

But I could be wrong.

It's Time to Re-evaluate the Top 25

After just seeing Michigan beat #10 Penn State, all I could think was how in the hell was Penn State ranked number 10? Who did they beat all year to earn such a lofty ranking? They beat down Notre Dame, but that certainly shouldn't give the team any bonus points. We know now that Charlie Weis is not the genius he makes himself out to be and that genius or not, you need an offensive line to make an offense go. Penn State played defense, but again, it's Michigan with a freshman QB. And Penn State made Michigan's previously horrible defense look like a group of All-Americans. With each passing week, the Big 10 looks worse and worse. Ohio State may be the only legitimate team in the conference. Maybe. Is there any doubt that the good teams from the very mediocre ACC could beat most of the Big 10 teams. I just don't see a Penn State being able to hang with Clemson and that running game or Boston College and that passing offense. It's time for pollsters to stop voting based on rep. The only reason that Penn State was in the Top 10 is because people want to see JoePa's team do well. How else can you explain Penn State beating no one and earning a top 10 ranking while a team like USF beats Auburn on the road and only barely cracks the top 25?

The commentators for the Michigan game commented that Michigan could win the Big 10 after losing to Appalachian State. I wonder if Appalachian State would be the best team in the Big 10 if it were in the conference.

Thursday, September 20, 2007

Mid Week Football Thoughts

Week 2 and 3 are when you really learn about which teams are for real.

They Are Who We Thought They Were


1. Bengals - Fantastic offense, horrific D.
2. Da Bears - Fantastic D, horrific offense
3. Seahawks - Mediocre team in a mediocre division in a mediocre conference.
4. Patriots - Cheaters. And an unstoppable juggernaut on offense.
5. Norv Turner, head coach - Lost on the sidelines as usual. Anyone who didn't see the Pats beatdown of the Chargers coming doesn't watch football. Belichick vs. Norvell is the coaching mismatch of the year.

We Had No Idea
1. Titans -
Where did that running game come from?
2. 49ers - The offense is trash and yet here they are at 2-0. Fluke or really good D?
3. Dallas - When did they turn into the Colts of the last few years?




Wednesday, September 12, 2007

Eh, it's a start

I've created this blog for J Funk b/c he thought I might be good at something like this.