Saturday, September 22, 2007

NFL Week 3 Pregame Analysis

Chargers at Green Bay
It's entirely possible (and even likely) that Norv Turner's team is in stage one of giving up on their coach. This is a Norv Turner staple. This Chargers team has a lot of talent, but they have a weak secondary and average WRs. Green Bay, on the other hand, has looked like a team that has average talent that is being coached up by a good coaching staff. Their defense is very good. The offense is finding itself. Brandon Jackson and DeShawn Wynn might be good enough at the RB position to propel this team to the playoffs. Plus, this game is at Green Bay. Norv Turner on the road is not a good thing. Take the Chargers out of the top tier of AFC teams when they lose this game.

Dolphins at Jets
Let's just say I'm not sold on Cam Cameron at all. Run the ball, man. The Dolphins passing offense isn't good enough for Cam to get away from Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman so early in the game. And have you ever heard of a feature back that only got 11 carries a game? I can tell you what Ronnie Brown's stat line is going to be: 11 carries, 33 yards, 0 TDs. It's been this way the past two weeks. Meanwhile, the Jets can pressure any QB and can't get the running game going either. It's really a toss-up but Mangenie will cook up some magic on defense to confuse Trent Green and eek out a win.

Vikings at Chiefs
Let's review. The Vikings run the ball well and defend the run well. The Vikings' weak spot has been their secondary. The Chiefs haven't really done much well to this point, but they supposedly run the ball well and don't have all that strong of a passing game. On paper this favors the Vikings. Well, let's look at the coaches. Brad Childress hasn't distinguished himself in either direction. Herm Edwards has a history of dogging the first four or five games of the season before getting on a roll. Again, advantage Vikings. Damon Huard has the edge over Tarvaris Jackson at QB, but Childress could and should run Adrian Peterson 35 times this game and have Tarvaris run a few times. Be brave, Brad. Call an unbalanced game and run three times more than you pass. The Arrowhead factor, by the way, has always been overrated. Vikes should take it.

Lions at Eagles
The Lions 4 WR sets are hard to defend, but there's a way to beat that spread. Pressure the QB. Expect Jim Johnson to blitz big all game to get to Kitna. That may be the only way the Eagles stop that Lion offense. Read that sentence again and think if you would have ever seen that written down. The Lions shredded the Raiders because Rob Ryan went too conservative in his defense. On offense, the Eagles are just going to have to give Westbrook 20 plus carries and put McNabb in the Jeff Garcia role from last season. It's obvious Donovan isn't close to 100% yet.

Bills at Patriots
No surprises here. Let's say Pats win this one 38-14 and make it three in a row with the same score. Buffalo has the advantage in 0 areas in this game. Keep that in mind when you're watching the Pats toy with them this week.

49ers at Steelers
Here's where we learn about the makeup of this 49er team. The 49ers should keep it interesting with Frank Gore carrying the load, but the Steelers have just too many advantages on defense and offense to lose a game like this at home. This also looks like the type of win that will garner all sorts of unnecessary hype for this Pittsburgh team only for them to get overconfident and blow it the next week against the Cardinals.

Rams at Buccaneers
What have the Rams shown this season that suggests they'll win this game on the road?

Cardinals at Ravens
I'd like to pick the upset, but it's just not happening against a Ravens defense that plays pissed off even when they're not really pissed off.

Colts at Texans
Yeah right. Just forget it. The Colts are too good early in the season to give one up here. If this was week 13 or so, then maybe, but not now. Peyton picks apart an always weak Houston secondary. Matt Schaub goes in without his best WR and I don't think that Jacoby Jones or Kevin Walter are up to the task. Colts win big.

Jaguars at Broncos
Finally, fantasy owners can rejoice. Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor run amok, but alas it's not enough as Denver's CB tandem picks off David Garrard a few times to give Denver another close win.

Browns at Raiders
The Browns on the road? They do have a history of beating the Raiders in recent years, but it's not happening again this year. Derek Anderson gets brought back to earth and LaMont Jordan continues to run wild.

Bengals at Seahawks
Everyone scores bunches of points, and the Seahawks come out on top. Why? Because the shootout favors the home team and the team that can actually make one stop and that team is definitely not the Cincinnati Bengals.

Panthers at Falcons
Both teams aren't very good, but the Panthers are slightly better. That said, the Falcons should win. Why? Because sometimes the NFL doesn't make any sense.

Giants at Redskins
A team that self-destructs in Week 2 will not win games in Week 3. The Redskins, on the other hand, look like a playoff team with a good coach, a good defense, a gamebreaker at WR, an incredibly underrated TE, two good RBs and a improving QB.

Cowboys at Bears
The Bears play defense; the Cowboys do not. Discount the Rex Grossman factor. He played at least 5 good games last year, and this will be his first one this year.

Titans at Saints
The Saints are too talented on offense to go 0-3 to start the season. The Saints will be at home, which always helps. But don't expect it to be easy. The Titans have a good and very underrated defense. They find ways to bring pressure and are almost never vanilla. The Saints defense just doesn't look good in any way. But being at home should help them get a few stops against a just okay Titans offense and Drew Brees and Co. should put up enough points to get the job done.

Side note: If Deuce McAllister doesn't get 20-25 carries this game, Sean Payton's going to start looking like an idiot coach.

But I could be wrong.

It's Time to Re-evaluate the Top 25

After just seeing Michigan beat #10 Penn State, all I could think was how in the hell was Penn State ranked number 10? Who did they beat all year to earn such a lofty ranking? They beat down Notre Dame, but that certainly shouldn't give the team any bonus points. We know now that Charlie Weis is not the genius he makes himself out to be and that genius or not, you need an offensive line to make an offense go. Penn State played defense, but again, it's Michigan with a freshman QB. And Penn State made Michigan's previously horrible defense look like a group of All-Americans. With each passing week, the Big 10 looks worse and worse. Ohio State may be the only legitimate team in the conference. Maybe. Is there any doubt that the good teams from the very mediocre ACC could beat most of the Big 10 teams. I just don't see a Penn State being able to hang with Clemson and that running game or Boston College and that passing offense. It's time for pollsters to stop voting based on rep. The only reason that Penn State was in the Top 10 is because people want to see JoePa's team do well. How else can you explain Penn State beating no one and earning a top 10 ranking while a team like USF beats Auburn on the road and only barely cracks the top 25?

The commentators for the Michigan game commented that Michigan could win the Big 10 after losing to Appalachian State. I wonder if Appalachian State would be the best team in the Big 10 if it were in the conference.

Thursday, September 20, 2007

Mid Week Football Thoughts

Week 2 and 3 are when you really learn about which teams are for real.

They Are Who We Thought They Were


1. Bengals - Fantastic offense, horrific D.
2. Da Bears - Fantastic D, horrific offense
3. Seahawks - Mediocre team in a mediocre division in a mediocre conference.
4. Patriots - Cheaters. And an unstoppable juggernaut on offense.
5. Norv Turner, head coach - Lost on the sidelines as usual. Anyone who didn't see the Pats beatdown of the Chargers coming doesn't watch football. Belichick vs. Norvell is the coaching mismatch of the year.

We Had No Idea
1. Titans -
Where did that running game come from?
2. 49ers - The offense is trash and yet here they are at 2-0. Fluke or really good D?
3. Dallas - When did they turn into the Colts of the last few years?




Wednesday, September 12, 2007

Eh, it's a start

I've created this blog for J Funk b/c he thought I might be good at something like this.