Dick Jauron will never win in the NFL

I'm typing this as I watch the Bills throw their season away. The Bills made a dramatic comeback from 13 down at one point to take a one-point lead. The Browns were playing a prevent defense and it looked like they were ready to pack it in for the third straight game. Then Brady Quinn leads a decent drive to get them in position for a long field goal and Dawson delivers a 57 yarder that would have been good from 60 for the Browns. But the Browns squib the kick and the Bills get great field position. First play, Trent Edwards throws a 22 yard strike to Robert Royal to get the Bills to the outer range of field goal position. So what does Dick Jauron do? Stay with Edwards to try to get closer into field goal range since a 50 yarder is no sure thing? Mix run and pass so that play action becomes viable? Or go ultraconservative, play not to lose and run dive plays three straight times to gain 4 more yards? Come on, you know which one it is. This is Dick Jauron's MO. How can a coach settle for a 47 yard field goal when there was a minute left before the dive plays? Go for the touchdown. Be bold. Go for the win. A 47 yard field goal into the wind is a sure thing? Unbelievable. Sorry Bills fans, but this is your coach. He's not bold. He doesn't go for the win. He lets his foot off the gas. I can keep throwing around cliches, but we all know the truth: Dick Jauron is too afraid of making mistakes to win football games consistently.

If you're a fan of football, you have to be disgusted with the way both teams handled the end of the games. Sure, the Browns won, but Romeo Crennel got away with one. You can't rely on 57 yard field goals to win games. Again, you have time to win the game. Mix run AND pass. In his case, he had three timeouts. They had a chance to make their possession the last one and have Dawson kick from much closer in. Marcus Stroud was a couple inches away from getting a hand on the 57 yarder. And then to squib the kickoff? Have faith in your special teams, Romeo. It's highly unlikely that they would give up two special teams touchdowns. On the other side, what more can you say about Dick Jauron's spineless performance? At least Romeo had Quinn trying to get a first down before the long field goal attempt. Welcome back to last place in the AFC East, Buffalo. How's Miami looking from down there?

How to win in football

1. Run the ball, stop the run. Sounds simple, but only a few do it well. This formula almost guarantees a winning season unless your pass defense is terrible (see Minnesota Vikings of recent years). This is old Bear Bryant style football. Line up your big guys and maul the other guys on offense. Run the ball in any situation. Never give up on the run (looking at you, Norv Turner). Your quarterback usually isn't spectacular but is credible with his play-action fakes, can throw a decent deep ball to open things up and avoids critical turnovers. On defense, get a big mountain of man that can tackle and has some burst at the snap and line him up in the middle. Get a big middle linebacker that can take on blockers and at least one quick outside linebacker to contain the outside. The Tennessee Titans have done this to perfection so far this year and the Ravens, Steelers, Giants and this year's Alabama Crimson Tide are good examples of how this formula can be very successful.

Downsides: not many. If this type of team runs into an explosive offense, they may find themselves behind early and be forced to pass more than they'd like.

2. Defense and Special Teams turnovers/scores. This doesn't work as consistently as some of the other ways, but in this formula, you rely on an opportunistic defense to create turnovers and a quick returner on special teams to set up most of the offensive scores. Virginia Tech and the Buffalo Bills rely on this formula.

Downsides: A lot. A smart team won't turn the ball over. Special teams provide a nice boost, but they usually can't win a team on their own. Again, look at the Bills and VaTech for proof.

3. Offensive blitzkrieg. See Indianapolis Colts, Greatest Show on Turf Rams, last year's New England Patriots, 2002 Oakland Raiders, 1990s Florida Gators. These teams score early and often, usually with an overwhelming passing game, relying on smart QBs, quick receivers, and running backs that can catch and run. By scoring a lot, they effectively take away an opponent's running game, leaving the defensive ends to focus squarely on sacking the QB. Look at these teams' defenses and you'll usually find light, quick defensive ends and good, opportunistic corners.

Downsides: A good running team can control the clock and take the opposing team's offense out of their rhythm. Light, quick defensive ends are great for attacking the QB but not so good at stopping the run.

4. The complete team. Hard to say if this has ever happened in the NFL. This team can do all of the above three and has no discernable weaknesses. They can run up and down the field, they can play ball control and they can use their special teams to manufacture turnovers. USC in Matt Leinart's first two years starting had a team that approached this level of play. The Florida Gators are the only team this year that has played like this and it shows in their final scores.

Downsides: None, except that it is incredibly difficult to play at this level for an entire season.

A coach makes all the difference

I've long maintained that there are only a handful of good coaches in the NBA and a ton of mediocre to lousy ones. The good: Phil Jackson, Gregg Popovich, Mike D'Antoni, Larry Brown (despite his turn with the Knicks), Doc Rivers (I can't believe I'm typing this, but he sort of owned Phil Jackson in the Finals last season), Byron Scott and holy crap, that's it. There's six and one of them (Larry Brown) loses motivation easily. Byron makes the cut because he got the Nets to back-to-back Finals and pushed the Spurs to six in one of those, and the Hornets looked like a well-prepared team every game last season. Doc finally settled on a rotation and won a championship, so he's in. Of the others, only Mike D'Antoni hasn't won a championship or coached an NBA Finals game. But that's more the product of shaky officiating and bad luck. His Phoenix teams were consistently competitive in the playoffs despite key injuries to people like Joe Johnson and Amare Stoudmire. The other often overlooked culprit in the Suns supposed failure (how any team that consistently wins at least 55 games is considered a failure is beyond me) is that they have a terrible owner who was so desperate to not pay the luxury tax that he gave away Kurt Thomas and frequently sold draft picks. Had he kept them, the Suns may have had a bench that included Andre Iguodala and Ben Gordon. Seriously, if they kept their drafts picks and hit 50% on them, D'Antoni would still be coaching the Suns.

That said, one of my predictions for this year is that the Knicks will make the playoffs and D'Antoni is the number one reason why. The Knicks look incredible this year. They're playing unselfish basketball. This hasn't happened since the Jeff Van Gundy years. And the style of play is a joy to watch. Rucker Park brought to the Garden. Jamal Crawford is lights out all of a sudden. Nate Robinson is the new Microwave. Zach Randolph gives a shit again. And look who's on the bench: undertalented, overrated malcontent Stephon Marbury and overweight, out of shape, lazy, defenseless, clumsy Eddy Curry. D'Antoni knows these two are worthless and his team is proving him right.

There's a recent precedent for a good coach taking a lousy to mediocre team to the playoffs: Hubie Brown and the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizz had a long history of being lousy until Hubie came in. Hubie taught them how to play defense and the Grizzlies made the playoffs two straight years.

Another team to watch this year is Charlotte. Slowly but surely, that team will learn how to play defense, learn how to box out on rebounds, learn how to play team basketball under Larry Brown. They may not make the playoffs this year, but if Larry stays motivated, they'll be angling for a low seed in the playoffs next year.

A few more NBA thoughts

Contemplating the NBA while getting ready for the real job:

1. These young players are the truth: Al Horford, Andrew Bynum, Rudy Gay (has the potential to be an unstoppable scorer), Nate Robinson (the new microwave), Derrick Rose, O.J. Mayo (his name is too good to fail), Brandon Roy, Rudy Fernandez, pretty much the entire Blazers team, Glen "Big Baby" Davis. There are more, but it's early and I can't think straight.

2. These youngins are what you think they are: Carl Landry (one-year wonder), Greg Oden (great defender when healthy, never healthy), O.J. Mayo (streak shooter, hey I like the guy, but he was streaky in college), Joakim Noah (on the wrong team, can we get him on the Knicks? He was born to play for D'Antoni), Ty Thomas (tantalizing potential that may never be realized), Yi Jianlian (looks great against a chair; against people, not so much).

3. Can Udonis Haslem get some love for doing the dirty work on what might be the most undersized front-line in basketball? The Heat don't have a starter taller than 6-9, and Udonis move to center (his college position) to give the Heat some muscle in the middle.

The NBA is back and so am I

Quick NBA predictions for the year so you can see how wrong I was later on:

1. The Lakers will win the NBA title. Seriously, it's the same team that went to the Finals last year, but they have Bynum healthy, Odom as a sixth man and the whole team caring about defense.
2. The Celtics will not make it back to the NBA Finals. One of the Big Three will get hurt. Playing the law of averages here with three players that are older than 30 and have logged a ton of games and minutes in their careers.
3. Greg Oden will finally score a point in a regular season game, but he's going to be a non-factor for most of the season. Sorry, Portland. Your big man is a big injury waiting to happen.
4. That team that plays in Oklahoma City will finish with the worst record and not win the lottery because they are doomed to fail by their terrible karma. They will never win anything in Oklahoma City.
5. Houston will be a popular pick to do damage in the playoffs but won't get past the first round. Again.
6. The Heat and the Knicks will both make the playoffs, and they'll both be a lot of fun to watch.
7. Say goodbye to the playoffs, Dallas Mavericks. You had a good run while it lasted. Quick rundown of their problems: Dirk has no heart, Kidd can't defend quicker guards (i.e. CP3, D-Will, Tony Parker, Steve Nash, hell, even Jordan Farmar), they have no killer to take over the end of the game, Erick Dampier is in the middle (speaking of no heart), they overpaid for DeSagana Diop (an ok defender, but a foul machine and he can't score) , Josh Howard isn't comfortable in Dallas anymore, and Jerry Stackhouse is about 8 years past his prime.
8. LeBron will set the record for holy shit moments in an NBA season not featuring Michael Jordan. Expect a few 40-10-10 games and maybe even a 50-10-10 game if his teammates are up to par.
9. The Cavs will be in the NBA Finals.
10. Bynum destroying the Big Z will be the last moment of the NBA Finals, moreso than the Kobe-LeBron matchup, which will be a toss-up edging slightly towards LeBron. But seriously, the best young big in the league going up against an aging, slow as molasses white center? not even close.

The state of the NBA

I've tried telling people that don't watch professional basketball this, but it seems too out there for them. The NBA is actually awesome this year. Seriously. Better than maybe even football this year. The league is filled with a good collection of uber-talented players and good guys, young stars on the rise and old tigers trying to stay relevant. This year is completely unpredictable. This is easily the best NBA season in 10 years. You'd have to go back to the early 90s to find a season this good. Back then you had Jordan's Bulls, Ewing's Knicks, Barkley's Suns, Payton and Kemp in Seattle, the Mailman and Stockton in Utah, Run TMC in Golden State and Mr. Drexler/Dr. Clyde in Portland, and the Dream in Houston. By comparison this season we have Kobe's Lakers, Chris Paul and the surprising Hornets, the Big Three in Boston, Baron and Jax and Monta and Nellie running til they drop in Golden State, the Run and Gun in Phoenix, Dirk Diggler and the Mavs, Duncan and Manu in San Antonio, Boozer and Deron Williams in Utah, Superman in Orlando, Yao (Ow!) and T-Mac in Houston, Melo and Iverson in Denver and of course, LBJ willing the Cavs to the playoffs.

Here's what we know: the East is lousy, except for Boston, Detroit, Orlando, Cleveland and sometimes Toronto; the West is awesome, except for the Clippers, Minnesota, Sacramento, Seattle and Memphis.

That said, Boston or Cleveland could still come out of the East and win the NBA title. Not incredibly likely, especially in Cleveland's case, but not impossible. As long as LeBron is healthy, the Cavs have a chance to beat anybody. He's the rare super-hyped athlete that has exceeded expectations. He's that good. No team wants to play him in the playoffs.

And he might not even win MVP. Kobe Bryant has been playing like a man who can sense a championship ever since the trade for Pau Gasol, but even before that, he had started playing with more maturity than ever before. He's a terror on the defensive end for the first time in a good five years.

Then there's Chris Paul, who is the point guard in the league and is nearly unguardable. He's averaging a double-double and is the main reason New Orleans has a good basketball team.

All of this adds up to the most exciting buildup to the playoffs in a long time. Even in the East, watching perennial losers like the Atlanta Hawks try to make the playoffs is fun. The Hawks have a fun team to watch with players like Al Horford, Joe Johnson and Josh Smith. Horford has been a monster for them. I like Chicago even though their record stinks. I think they're better than that. If Deng ever comes around, they could be a tough matchup for anyone. Joakim Noah's been a rebounding force for them. Look at the core in Portland: Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Greg Oden when he returns next year.

For a league that has been boring and predictable, defined by selfish play and thuggish behavior on and off the court, this season has been a revelation. The NBA can be fun. Basketball can be beautiful. It is essentially the American version of futbol, creating beautiful art in motion with the hands instead of the feet.

when people say sports don't matter...

...they're wrong. Case in point, the outcry of angry and sad Seattle fans as they realize they're going to lose their beloved SuperSonics. Bill Simmons of ESPN.com has ask that people send their thoughts on the Sonics moving to him. It's a good look into the soul of sports fans and into how much sports really means to people.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/080229&sportCat=nba