NBA ceilings/basements vol. 2 - the east

How the East could be won or lost:

1. Boston Celtics - I've been thinking a lot about this team lately. They're getting the tough part of their schedule out of the way early with all the back to backs they've been playing. They look a little more beatable this year than last, but a favorable schedule down the stretch will help them immensely. A few things about this team:

a) Garnett has slipped, at least on the offensive end. It's noticeable. He relies on his jumper a lot more than in past years.
b) Garnett hasn't slipped on defense. And he still scares everyone on the court with his intensity and forces this team to play good defense.
c) The Celtics take pride in their D much like Detroit did under Larry Brown. Every guy on this team wants to shut down the other team. Every guy wants to grab a rebound or fight for the loose ball.
d) I'd be thinking so much about the age of the Big Three and looking for signs of slipping that I completely overlooked the possibility that Rajon Rondo could turn into a consistent All-Star caliber point guard. He's not there yet, but if he gets there, that extends the championship window for this team by a couple years.

Bottom line: This team is a lock for at least the Eastern Conference Finals and probably the NBA Finals.

2. Cleveland Cavaliers - They're better this year. They're going to win 60 unless LeBron gets hurt. They should steamroll their way to an Eastern Conference Finals matchup with the Celtics. Here's why I don't think they'll beat the Celtics. Who's the second banana on this team? Obviously, LeBron runs the show, but who's the other guy that teams gameplan for? If you take LeBron out of the game, which the Celtics and the Pistons have done in the past, who beats you? The team is LeBron, who's the best player in the league and it isn't even close (sorry, Kobe), and a bunch of good role players. But MJ had Pippen, Shaq had Kobe and then Wade, Garnett has Pierce and Ray Allen, Duncan had Robinson and later, Ginobili and Parker, Kobe has Bynum and Gasol, and so on. You need at least two to win in this league. If they swing a blockbuster deal that doesn't involve Vince Carter (too selfish), they could move up. Otherwise, they'll be Boston's second banana.

3. Detroit Pistons.......nah...not this year, too soon. Orlando Magic - Enjoy being three. Even Dwight Howard making the leap won't bump this team up past Boston and Cleveland. In order to make the leap from very good to consistently great, Howard has to up his free throw percentage, develop a credible short jumper or jump hook and become a more physical defender with a mean streak. Another 50 win season looks to be a lock. Orlando's a well-coached team with good shooters, a vastly underrated point guard in Jameer Nelson and some decent depth in the bench. They should handle all but two teams in the East.

4. Detr....nope. Toronto Raptors - Bosh and I think O'Neal has enough in the tank for a good playoff run. Calderon is the best pure point guard in the East. They've got enough good shooters to force teams to respect the 3 point shot. Their fans are some of the best in the NBA. Just a lot of fun to watch. Bosh could make the jump to an elite player and carry them through a couple of playoff series. Playing against Howard in the playoffs last year hopefully made both players tougher and better all around. Update: Wait, what? They just fired their coach? That could change everything.

5. Detroit Pistons - This feels right. I'd hate to be a Pistons fan right now and have to talk myself into thinking Iverson could be the key to this team. A few things:

a) Seriously, the Pistons gave up on this year to try and get LeBron in two years? That's what it sounds like. Why would LeBron leave a better team in Cleveland, a city that worships him by the way, to go to a worse team in uber-unglamourous Detroit? There's no way this happens.

b) R.I.P. Rip Hamilton as an effective player for 82 games. Without Chauncey to dish the ball to him, Rip looks a little lost. Iverson and Stuckey eat into his minutes and neither knows him as well as Chauncey did.

c) They traded a pretty good point guard who could run their offense, hit a few big shots and defend pretty well for A.I., a guy who needs the ball to be effective, takes too many shots and can't defend. Have I mentioned that I hate this trade for the Pistons?

6. Atlanta Hawks - Here's a new gimmick for an NBA team: Let's play a season without a bench. Their starters can hang with anyone, and it looks like Horford's going from good to very good this year, but they've got cobwebs and tumbleweed on that bench. Maurice Evans? Flip Murray? Egads.

7. The New York Knicks - I'm a homer. They play their hearts out. David Lee is perfect for D'Antoni and Duhon just set the single game assist record. They'll be a first round out, but they'll get there.

8. Miami Heat - D-Wade. Nuff said.

9. Indiana Pacers - Young team showing some spunk. I don't know what to make of them. I like Granger and I like Jim O'Brien. Maybe this team has a surprise playoff run in it.

10. Philadelphia 76ers - What's the difference between the 76ers and the Bucks or the Bulls or any other East team with one good player and a bunch of ok guys? The burden of expectations. No one thinks much of the other teams, but everyone had Philly penciled in for the playoffs. Well, not me. The Brand signing slowed down their run and gun helter skelter style that made them successful last year. Louis Williams is no longer a microwave off the bench. There's a potential "Brand suffers bad injury and the team makes an improbable playoff run" lurking in their season. But that shouldn't be the ceiling of a team that had conference final aspirations.

11. Chicago Bulls - So much first round talent and nothing to show for it. Another lottery trip means another chance to get lucky with a blue-chipper. Derrick Rose will have this team in the playoffs in the next few years, providing their coach learns how to coach.

12. New Jersey Nets - Vince Carter is making a strong play for another team to make a mistake and acquire him in a midseason trade. NBA fool's gold. Note to Cavs: Don't be fooled.

13. Milwaukee Bucks - Defensive coach tries to get uncommitted players to play defense. Hilarity ensues. If only.

14. Charlotte Bobcats - Defensive coach tries to get uncommitted players to play defense. Hilarity ensues. If only. I sense a pattern at the bottom here. Why tie so much money with J-Rich, Okafor, and Gerald Wallace? Does anyone think this is a core that can bring Charlotte a championship? Obviously the answer is no. So why did they do it? If you can answer that, you too could run the Charlotte Bobcats.

15. There's a worse team than Charlotte? Ah, right, the Washington Wizards. They actually should be better than what they've shown so far. They have a couple of good scorers in Jamison and Butler. When/if Agent Zero comes back, at least one paper, they would have a good trio. But yet again, here's a team that invested big bucks in a core that has shown they can't win it all.