Looking ahead to how the Magic match up in the Finals

I think the number of followers to this blog has droppped.

Barring a Magic-like collapse, Orlando should be in the NBA Finals. They're up 3-1 against the Cavs and they've got three chances to put this series away. They seemed to have developed a killer instinct after that Boston series. I like their odds.

Looking ahead to the Finals, and I think the Magic should be hoping that the Lakers beat the Nuggets because that's a much better matchup for them. The Magic have Pietrus and Courtney Lee, along with Hedo, to throw at Kobe and Howard can push around Gasol. The Lakers-Nuggets series is going at least six games and most likely seven, so the Lakers will continue to be exhausted going into the Finals. And Rafer Alston can afford to be spotty against the Lakers crap trio of point guards.

Denver, on the other hand, will give Orlando problems. Nene and K-Mart will rough up Dwight Howard and probably get in his head enough to force him into a technical foul, and Dwight's one away from an automatic one game suspension. Melo can guard any of Orlando's shooters and take Rashard Lewis out of the game. He can put them into a foul trouble too. Chauncey will destroy Rafer Alston and JR Smith, as long as he continues to play smart, negates Courtney Lee. Basically, Orlando would be facing a meaner version of this year's Celtics team.

That said, I can't believe what I'm going to say next. Orlando should be FAVORED in any Finals series provided they take care of business against the Cavs. This team is for real. I completely underestimated them, but they're well coached and that would make the difference in a series against Denver.

Here's the thing I notice about Denver. I'm not fully convinced that the team likes playing for George Karl. I think they like playing for Chauncey Billups. This Denver team quit on Karl some time late last year and started the season like they didn't care. Then Chauncey comes over in the Iverson trade (one of the most lopsided deals ever, and does that make Joe Dumars the GM or the Chrysler of the NBA?) and all of a sudden, the team looks loose and plays like it's having fun. You know who still doesn't look loose? George Karl. Chauncey is coaching this team. He calls the plays on the court and the guys listen to him. This is the exact same situation that Mike Dunleavy was in a few years back when the Clippers made the playoffs and Sam Cassell was basically coaching the team as the point guard. I don't think those guys liked Dunleavy back then and they quit on him the next season as Cassell was phased out. They didn't have confidence in his coaching decisions, which is understandable given that Dunleavy is absolutely terrible, and I think the same applies to the Nuggets and George Karl. Watch. Karl will make one or two more fourth quarter coaching blunders that will cost Denver a game or maybe the series. The bad thing for Denver is that Chauncey and his team know it's coming. They saw it in Game 1 with the inbounds pass fiasco. I can see him doing something dumb in Game 5 or 6 and the team just mailing in the next game. That won't happen on the other end with Phil Jackson and the Lakers, though Kobe may physically kill a few of his teammates before the end of the playoffs.

addendum to more nba stuff

a day later, and look at what we have here. The Cavs are down 2-1 to the Magic, and really, they would be down 3-0 and on the verge of getting swept if LeBron hadn't made a borderline miracle shot at the end of game 2. I've heard people compare the Denver-LA series to the LA-Detroit Finals series from '04, but I think this Cavs-Magic series is more like that one. In that series, the Lakers won one game on a miracle 3 pointer from Kobe that sent the game to OT. The Magic destroyed, repeat DESTROYED, the Cavs at home in the regular season. Now they beat them by 10 in the playoffs. The Cavs are in a lot of trouble. LeBron put in another 40+ point game, but didn't shoot particularly well, and his teammates have yet to show up for this series. He's been great, but without Mo, Wally, Delonte, Z, Varajeo, Big Ben, Boobie and the rest, he won't make it past the Magic. Even if they do, I don't see how this team defends the Lakers. Gasol will run circles around their big men. They have no one who can guard Odom, and they won't want to stick LeBron on Kobe and risk losing some of LeBron's energy on the offensive end.

In the West, the Lakers are back in control after (depending on who you believe) stealing Game 3 or showing their veteran prowess in the Game 3. I prefer the latter. Forever underappreciated Kobe scored 41 points on pretty effective shooting and dished out 5 assists and basically carried the team in the 4th quarter. Yeah, he's not averaging a 35/9/7 like LeBron is in the post-season, but he's still the best player on arguably the most talented team in the postseason and he's been playing like this while having been basically playing ball for 2 years straight including two postseasons and one trip to the Olympics. And oh yeah, he's had a broken pinkie finger this entire time that would have sidelined almost any other player. Can we appreciate him for being one of the best NBA players of all time? That's definitely not in dispute. Kobe is a top 20 player and an absolute assassin with two minutes left in the game. He's one of the greatest clutch players ever and one of the most intense competitors the league has ever had. Is he Jordan? No. He's not as competitive, not as smart and not as complete of a player, but it's close. Kobe's got better range on his shot and he has the same ice running in veins. Kobe's big deficiency is that he can't consistently get his teammates involved like MJ did.

And don't the people who basically wrote the Lakers obituary after Game 2 feel real dumb now. The Lakers are up 2-1 with a chance to put the series out of reach on Monday. The lesson: if a series is 1-1, then it's even. This seems really obvious. I mean painfully obvious, but never underestimate the vapidity of the sportswriting consensus.

more nba stuff

so explain this to me: The Lakers won game 1 and lost game 2 because Phil Jackson drew up a last second play for Derek Fisher instead of Kobe Bryant, and all of the sudden the consensus is that the Lakers are in a lot of trouble and probably won't win the West (see ESPN's SportsNation poll for more). Yet the Cavs, having only beaten weak teams in the playoffs so far, drop game 1 and come within a LeBron James semi-miracle, totally amazing 3 pointer from being down 2-0 to the Magic, and yet, no one seems to be writing their obituary. You know what we've learned so far in that series? LeBron is better than advertised and the rest of his team grossly overachieved in the regular season and seem lost in the playoffs. Mo Williams has been bad. The Big Z is slow and ineffective against Dwight Howard, even though Howard has no post game whatsoever.

Speaking of Howard, if Dwight had just one move in the post, just one, the Magic would be up 2-0 and we might be talking about them as the heavy favorites to win the whole thing. Watch him. He's awful on one-on-one offense. He's the best, most athletic energy player in the NBA, maybe ever, but he can't post anyone up. He has this weird running hook that he flings hard at the basket and he can dunk if he's right underneath the basket. He can't drive and doesn't have any touch around the rim. No layups, no jumpers, and no range. That said, what he does is amazing and that he can get 20 points a night is incredible. He scores entirely on effort: alley-oops fed to him, putbacks, and pick-and-roll dunks. And that's it. He's a beast on the boards, but he can be really thin-skinned and if the Cavs are smart, they get Ben Wallace or someone to get really physical with him. "Superman" gets a bit snippy when he gets pushed around. He took a few cheap shots at Kendrick Perkins last round because Perkins could push him around.

Back to the Cavs, they're in a lot of trouble if they can't figure out a way to guard Rashard Lewis and Hedo. The Cavs should go small, put James at the 4 and have him guard Lewis. Put Varajeo on Howard to take away the really easy dunks on deep post passes. Stick Delonte on Hedo, where despite the height difference, Delonte can effectively harass Hedo into turnovers. Make guys like Rafer Alston beat them. Meanwhile, Orlando's going back home where in the regular season, they absolutely destroyed the Cavs. It could be that this Magic team is just a matchup nightmare for the Cavs for whatever reason. Houston was a matchup problem for the Lakers last round despite missing Yao Ming and maybe because they were missing Tracy McGrady. By the way, I love how the same writers who were saying that Houston was better off without McGrady were then giving the Lakers shit for not being able to beat a Houston team without McGrady. Consistency, please.

manny and roids

There's no way that Manny Ramirez used steroids. He's too lazy to cycle properly. Too undisciplined to stick to that kind of regiment. It's possible that he tried it once and used them wrong and got nothing out of it and stopped. That's about the only scenario where I can envision him knowingly taking roids. Manny seems like more of a pothead than a meathead.

the lakers wake up...finally!

They needed that. The game one loss was ugly for the Lakers. They couldn't hit a three-point shot, Kobe was held in check and Bynum and Odom essentially took that night off. Only 10 fast break points, and an overall lethargic and yes, lazy effort from the most talented team in the NBA. Note: not the best team, but the most talented. Their only glaring hole is at point guard.

So just about everyone knew that the Lakers would take game two. And they did, but it was how they did it. They roughed up the Rockets. They traded blows with Ron Artest. They got under Houston's skin and put doubt in their minds. And oh yeah, Kobe became a scoring juggernaut again, racking 40 against the Battier/Artest combo. Lamar Odom showed up, although Andrew Bynum is still on vacation.

Game 3 is the big test and you have to know that Phil Jackson is going to have his team ready. If the Lakers take game 3, they can send a strong message to not just he Rockets, but the Denver Nuggets, their likely opponent in the Western Conference Finals, as well.

In other LA sports news, the Dodgers just opened up 13-0 at home. Holy cow! I will know follow baseball. Expect a more detailed post on this and how the Yankees screwed themselves by screwing their fans. In the meantime, I'll resume my tour of America's least exciting airports. LaGuardia, you're up. Next stop: O'Hare.