Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Looking ahead to how the Magic match up in the Finals

I think the number of followers to this blog has droppped.

Barring a Magic-like collapse, Orlando should be in the NBA Finals. They're up 3-1 against the Cavs and they've got three chances to put this series away. They seemed to have developed a killer instinct after that Boston series. I like their odds.

Looking ahead to the Finals, and I think the Magic should be hoping that the Lakers beat the Nuggets because that's a much better matchup for them. The Magic have Pietrus and Courtney Lee, along with Hedo, to throw at Kobe and Howard can push around Gasol. The Lakers-Nuggets series is going at least six games and most likely seven, so the Lakers will continue to be exhausted going into the Finals. And Rafer Alston can afford to be spotty against the Lakers crap trio of point guards.

Denver, on the other hand, will give Orlando problems. Nene and K-Mart will rough up Dwight Howard and probably get in his head enough to force him into a technical foul, and Dwight's one away from an automatic one game suspension. Melo can guard any of Orlando's shooters and take Rashard Lewis out of the game. He can put them into a foul trouble too. Chauncey will destroy Rafer Alston and JR Smith, as long as he continues to play smart, negates Courtney Lee. Basically, Orlando would be facing a meaner version of this year's Celtics team.

That said, I can't believe what I'm going to say next. Orlando should be FAVORED in any Finals series provided they take care of business against the Cavs. This team is for real. I completely underestimated them, but they're well coached and that would make the difference in a series against Denver.

Here's the thing I notice about Denver. I'm not fully convinced that the team likes playing for George Karl. I think they like playing for Chauncey Billups. This Denver team quit on Karl some time late last year and started the season like they didn't care. Then Chauncey comes over in the Iverson trade (one of the most lopsided deals ever, and does that make Joe Dumars the GM or the Chrysler of the NBA?) and all of a sudden, the team looks loose and plays like it's having fun. You know who still doesn't look loose? George Karl. Chauncey is coaching this team. He calls the plays on the court and the guys listen to him. This is the exact same situation that Mike Dunleavy was in a few years back when the Clippers made the playoffs and Sam Cassell was basically coaching the team as the point guard. I don't think those guys liked Dunleavy back then and they quit on him the next season as Cassell was phased out. They didn't have confidence in his coaching decisions, which is understandable given that Dunleavy is absolutely terrible, and I think the same applies to the Nuggets and George Karl. Watch. Karl will make one or two more fourth quarter coaching blunders that will cost Denver a game or maybe the series. The bad thing for Denver is that Chauncey and his team know it's coming. They saw it in Game 1 with the inbounds pass fiasco. I can see him doing something dumb in Game 5 or 6 and the team just mailing in the next game. That won't happen on the other end with Phil Jackson and the Lakers, though Kobe may physically kill a few of his teammates before the end of the playoffs.

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