the Giant-Size NFL preview part 4 of a million

And another.

AFC West

1. San Diego - A Norv Turner coached team might make the Super Bowl. The Chargers are loaded on both sides of the ball this year, and yet, they're going to give away some games because Norv is not a good coach in the fourth quarter. But they'll cruise to win this division on talent alone. They're the cream of this division's crap and will be that way for the foreseeable future.
Record: 11-5 and a deep playoff run.

2. Oakland Raiders - Well, who else do you want to put here? The Chiefs have a terrible offensive line and a defense that is equal parts old and green. The kids there are lousy (looking at you, Glenn Dorsey), and the vets don't have much in the tank. And Denver is a mess. So that leaves us with the Raiders, a team that just got obliterated 45-7 by the Saints in the preseason. A team with a head coach who might be arrested at some point in the season. I think they have enough talent on offense to be respectable, although their running game really hasn't shown up so far in the preseason. The defense is lousy. Really bad. It's always pretty bad. They have the best corner in football but the defensive line is worthless. The linebackers are decent in coverage but because the line is trash, they don't get any breaks against the run.
Record: Oh God, do I have to? Optimistically, 7-9. Pessimistically, 5-11. And what does that say about how I feel about the rest of this division? Well read on, reader.

3. Kansas City Chiefs - New QB, new GM, new head coach. Same crappy defense. Replacing Herm as the coach is worth a win or two by itself. Their offensive line is really lousy though, and I'm not sure Cassel is going to look half as good in KC as he did in New England. On the upside, the return of Larry Johnson. I'm grasping at straws here.
Record: 5-11. And that's an improvement. Oy vey!

4. Denver Broncos - This team is a mess. They're switching to a 3-4 defense, which fits no one on the team currently. Kyle Orton is replacing Jay Cutler. Let's write that again for emphasis. Kyle Orton is replacing Jay Cutler! And their best receiver has decided to quit on the team before the season starts. On the upside, Eddie Royal will put up good fantasy football numbers.
Record: 4-12, unless they start Chris Simms ahead of Orton. Then it turns into 6-10. A little better, eh?

The Giant-Size NFL preview part 3 of a million

These intros keep getting shorter.

AFC South

1. Indianapolis Colts - This team is the model of consistency. Pencil them in for 12 wins a year. Peyton looks comfortable with his wideouts and the change in defensive philosophy might do this team some good. They were too passive in the Cover 2 the last couple years. This is one of 4 or 5 legitimate Super Bowl contenders in the AFC.
Record: 12-4 and a return to the AFC championship game.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars - Bounce-back year from the Jags. This is another team that I have a hard time getting a read on, but I know this: David Garrard is actually a very good QB and MJD is a top 3 running back. The offensive line should be much improved and the team should have a giant chip on their shoulder after last year's performance. This is a make or break year for Del Rio. He needs to get his team into the playoffs or he won't be coaching this team next season.
Record: 10-6 and a wildcard spot. I've changed my mind about this team roughly 55 times during the preseason. They could just as easily go 6-10 and I wouldn't be surprised.

3. Houston Texans - Everyone is high on them. They're a popular sleeper pick for the playoffs, which means they won't make it. Look at past examples of popular sleeper playoff/Super Bowl teams:
2008 Cleveland Browns - didn't come close
2007 - New Orleans Saints - didn't make the playoffs
2006 - Carolina Panthers/Miami Dolphins - didn't make the playoffs
2005 - Minnesota Vikings - Love boat scandal, Culpepper's knee blows up, Culpepper has worst year ever, and the Vikes miss the playoffs

So you see the trend here. Houston has a good offense run by a fragile QB. Their defense is getting better and I can't believe that Charlie Casserly has been vindicated in picking Mario Williams over Reggie Bush, but it was the right pick.
Record: 8-8 again.

4. Tennessee Titans - And then they came crashing down. This year, Kerry Collins will remember he is Kerry Collins, the defense will drop off without Haynesworth, and who's that we see in the distance? Why, it's the return of Vince Young, coming back as the starting quarterback in December when the games will be meaningless for this team. Here's what you need to know. They overachieved a lot last year. They think they've addressed weakness at the WR position by adding a rookie and Nate Washington, the Steelers' third option at the position. Nate fuckin' Washington. When he's your number one, just forget about throwing the ball.
Record: 6-10. Really.

The Giant-Size NFL preview part 2 of a million

Here we are again. You, potentially reading this blog. Me, writing nonsense about sports that I pretend to know about. Shall we get to it then?

AFC North

1. Pittsburgh Steelers - Feels like it's going to be a bit of a letdown year for the Steelers. I don't know why and don't have solid evidence to back it up, but Big Ben's legal issues are an unnecessary distraction and I'm not sure this team is particularly hungry.
Record: 11-5 and a quick playoff exit.

2. Baltimore Ravens - Yes, they lost some talent on the defense. Yes, they lost Rob Ryan, their talented defensive coordinator. Yes, their receivers aren't great. But Flacco is making the leap this year. He's the first real QB that the Ravens have ever had. The defense still has Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, and Nagata might be the best defensive tackle in the league. Wait, why do I have them at number 2 in this division? I do have to give the defending champs a little respect.
Record: 11-5 and a nice playoff run as a wildcard team.

3. Cincinnati Bengals - The return of the high-powered Bengals offense is not enough to offset the return of the matador Bengals defense. I won't believe in their defense until I see some results on the field during actual games that count.
Record: 8-8, but they'll be sniffing the wildcard until the end of the year.

4. Cleveland Browns - Not good. How was this team talked about as a Super Bowl contender last year? Derek Anderson as a Super Bowl QB? Come on. Brady Quinn is a small improvement, but this team has already fallen apart and we're not yet to the games that count.
Record: 3-13, just an ugly year for this team. They seemed to have already tuned out Eric Mangini. Has a team ever quit on a new head coach in the preseason?

The Giant-Size NFL preview part 1 of a million

I keep saying this: Thank God for football season. It was way too long. Even the crappy preseason has been enough to tide me over until mid-September. We're getting a decent idea of what to expect from teams, even though preseason won/loss records are meaningless and not a good indicator of regular season success (see 2008 Detroit Lions and 2006 Oakland Raiders). But you can still tell a bit about a team by their training camp and the first quarters of preseason games. Again, the Raiders were terrible on offense the past few years in camp and the opening quarters and sure enough, they were equally terrible on offense during the regular season. So without further ado,

Your 2009 NFL season predictions that you can take to the bank (and lose a lot of money on, much like a bank these days, actually):

AFC East
1. The Patriots - Ugh. I hate this team, but they look so damn good. Robo-Brady may wreak havoc, they have arguably the best receiving corp in the league (though they're getting a little old between Moss and Galloway), the defense should be 100 times better and they have something to prove. Plus, they still have the best head coach in the league. Shit, this team could go 14-2 this year. A couple things worry me: their running backs are ordinary (I know, it didn't matter when they went 16-0) and their offensive line is not fantastic. They were manhandled by the Bengals in a preseason game. Manhandled by the Bengals. Thought I should repeat that because it just seems so shocking. Still, their linebackers are much improved, their defensive line is always top-notch, the corners are well, the Pats always get by with rubbish corners.
Record: 13-3

2. Miami Dolphins - Miami has the Dolphins, the greatest football team. Well not this year. Plus, the stupid team remixed the song. Bad karma potential there. I like the Dolphins, I really do. They overachieved big time last year, but they're well-coached and they have a decent QB in Pennington. Plus, Pennington actually knows the playbook this year. He was the most accurate QB in the league last year and he didn't know the playbook. Pretty amazing actually. Ted Ginn Jr. is putting it together and looks like a legit number one receiver. They have depth at that position this year too. I like Fasano as their tight end. The defense looks to be improved, though I'm not completely sold the Gibril Wilson/Yeremiah Bell combo at safety yet.
Record: 9-7. Sorry, Dolfans, your team is good, not great.

3. The Buffalo Bills - The TO experiment. That's what this season boils down to. Here's what TO can't cover up:
a. Their running back is crazy/unreliable
b. Their defense can be pushed around
c. Their head coach is one of the worst game managers in the league.
It's the last one that will kill them this year. I posted about this previously.
Record: 7-9 (again!). It could blow up completely and they end up being 5-11. I don't see a winning record for them.

4. The J-E-T-S - I like Rex Ryan. I kind of like the defense. I think Mark Sanchez will be a good QB, just not this year. They get by on sheer guts and bravado this year. Watch out for next year though. This team will make a major leap in 2010.
Record: 6-10.

The Mistake by the Lake (or how Brett Favre is a big mistake)

Not that the Browns are looking so hot nowadays, but the mistake by the lake I'm referring to involves Minnesota and not the city that bears the unfortunate nickname. Brett Favre is back. It makes the Vikings more interesting, but does it really make them that much better?

If you watch ESPN, the obvious answer seems to yes, of course, idiot, But look at it this way:

Does Brett Favre make Minnesota a Super Bowl contender? No. Their secondary still isn't great, their head coach is still a cross between a high school coach and a porn star, and their quarterback still has a penchant for throwing costly interceptions.

Is Brett Favre the best quarterback in the NFC North? Again, no. He's third behind Cutler, who is like a younger Favre in a lot of ways, and Aaron Rodgers.

Is it a good idea to sign a 39 year old quarterback after training camp? No. He has no chemistry with his receivers, offensive line, coaches and running backs. His arrival means Sage Rosenfels and Tavaris Jackson are thrown under the bus. He doesn't fully know the playbook. All of this means that he's going to be more inclined to wing it during the season, and with Favre, that can be a dangerous proposition. He's the all-time leader in interceptions for a reason.

How motivated will Favre be, especially if he loses to the Packers twice this season? This is the hardest question to answer. Some people think his return is motivated by revenge and if he loses out on that, will he care about the rest of the season? I have no idea.

Is Brett Favre worth $12 million for one year? No. The Vikings paid $12 million for a one-year traveling circus. They paid $12 million to give Brad Childress one last chance to prove he's a competent NFL head coach. The last head coach that pinned his hopes to Favre ended up fired and exiled to coach in Cleveland. By some accounts last year, Brett was a primadonna in the locker room.

Is 39 year old Brett Favre $11 million better than 39 year old Jeff Garcia? No. Call me crazy, but I would rather have Garcia. He's well-versed in the West Coast offense and he takes care of the football. He doesn't have the arm strength of Favre, but he's a lot less likely to throw stupid interceptions. In his last four years, Favre has had one really good one and three mediocre to bad ones. We forget this because the Brett Favre hype machine is always on during the season, but if he were anyone else, he would have been replaced before he had the chance to have that one good year in 2007. Garcia has had three pretty good years out of the last four years, and his one bad year in that period came with the Detroit Lions, so that's hardly fair to hold that against him. And here's the kicker: Garcia makes $1 million this year as a backup. The Vikings could have had him if they went after him early in the offseason. He was a good fit for their offense.

I see the Vikings getting a nice 9-7 season out of the Favre experiment. Their ceiling is really 10-6, and there's a good chance they finish under .500 and get Childress fired.

Ok, one more NBA post and then for real, it's all football all the time

A few NBA related thoughts that I never got out:

1. Orlando blew it by not resigning Turkoglu and instead using the same amount of money on Brandon Bass and Marcin Gortat. That's just insane. Turkoglu was their second best player last year and their clutch guy, and as much as I don't like the way he plays, I can admit that he was integral to their team. With him, they had three 6'10" or taller guys in the starting lineup. The Magic could have trotted out a starting lineup of Jameer Nelson, Vince Carter, Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis and Dwight Howard. Would that have been the best starting five in the league? You could argue that San Antonio, the Lakers or Boston could match that, but that's a pretty damn good lineup. I originally thought they were trying to save money by not resigning Turkoglu, but then they went ahead and matched Dallas' stupid offer to Gortat (five years/$34 million for a backup center averaging 12 minutes a game). Ummm..Why? He would never, ever push Dwight Howard for playing time. Let Dallas sign their newest Erick Dampier. Then they went ahead and gave stupid money to Brandon Bass (4 years/$18 million). I know, I know, he's young, he's got some talent, the price wasn't that high. But for the same price of these two, they could have kept Turkoglu, who's better than both of them combined.

2. Lakers resigned Odom and all is right in the world. Their lineup is scary good, especially if Bynum can improve.

3. Good God, the Celtics have signed every big man in the world. But they pissed off Rondo, and no one knows if he'll be in the right mindset to start the season. But I like signing Sheed, even if he has nothing left in the tank. Getting Big Baby back was another great deal. I like the Shelden Williams signing. They are very, very deep in the frontcourt.

the vick thing

As most of you know, the Eagles signed Michael Vick to be their backup quarterback. I'm not sure why. He's not the missing piece of the puzzle for the Eagles. The Eagles have been missing one piece for a number of years, and every year, whether it's through the draft or free agency, they fail to address it. The Eagles need a power running back, someone with size who can get tough yards and fight through tackles. I said the same thing last year. They suck near the goal line because they don't have a good fullback or big running back who can convert third and goal or fourth and goal.

How does Vick address this? He doesn't. They can put him in as a Wildcat quarterback near the goal line to give defenses something else to think about, but do they really want to be taking out Donovan McNabb in scoring situations. He's their best player. The other thing with Vick is all the media he drags behind him. Is a backup quarterback worth a season-long media circus?

Football is back

Thank God. It's been too long. I was starting to give you up for the NBA, following that offseason with a keen interest, but I can put that aside now. It's football season and I can start posting about a sport people actually care about now. Hard to get a true read on teams in the preseason, but there are some truths to be had, such as:

Truth #1 - Cleveland will be lousy. They were pretty bad against a 3-4 defense they should be seeing everyday in practice. Actually, this was against a Packers team transitioning to the 3-4 with guys learning new positions and with their top two corners sitting out. Yikes! On the road to another 4-10 season. Good luck, Mangenius.

Truth #2 - ESPN will only care about the following three players (in order): Brett Favre, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning. And they're starting to slip on Peyton. They only talk about Brett Favre, despite him being a washed-up retired has-been, and Tom Brady, who they gushed about and casually ignored the pick he threw in the preseason game. I would give up ESPN if they didn't have the rights to EVERY sport. That's probably a really bad thing, right? Too much power in one place and that place is too concerned with promoting itself at every turn. Deadspin has a good ESPN catchphrase analysis bit that they do every so often.

Truth #3 - Denver won't be good this year. Orton has looked like crap all throughout training camp and now the preseason. Their defense is a combined 1,000 years old, the secondary is really old especially, Jarvis Moss sucks at DE/OLB, they don't have a nose tackle and they're switching to a 3-4 defense. And they traded arguably the best young QB in the league this offseason and got back Kyle Orton. And their best receiver, Brandon Marshall, doesn't seem to give a shit about playing for the Broncos. Seems like Josh McDaniels might be a wee bit in over his head. If this was the Raiders, ESPN would be making a ton of cracks about all this, but they are strangely silent about Denver's slow swirl down the train.

More Marlins than you can shake a stick at

Editor's Note: This post is a few days old, and I was slow to put it up, perhaps because the writer trashes my Marlins analysis in the opening sentence of the post. Just saying... Anywho, here's another post from one of only 5 real Marlins fans on the planet, ladies and gentlefolk, Mr. Jesse Bryan:

--------
Inspired by Jason's ESPNesque "coverage" of the marlins in his last
post (seriously "The Marlins are young and so very up and down" is all
you can muster?!?!), I've decided it's about darn time for a fish
post.

The season thus far: Once again the team with the lowest payroll is in
playoff contention. To elaborate Jason's statement, yes this has been
very up and down year with more ups than downs. After a psychedelic
11-1 start, the fish fumbled in a pretty dramatic way losing a whole
bunch of games and not winning nearly as many. I first attributed this
fumbling to the vile new namesake of Joe Robbie stadium, "Landshark
Stadium." Being associated with Jimmy Buffet is never good for
business and the fish obviously went into a deep depression when this
change occurred. I'm surprised no one committed suicide because I
almost did after puking no less than 15 times. However, the fish
battled back and have put themselves back in contention. Then with
things heating up, they go and get swept by the nationals (after
series wins against the Dodgers (take that Jason), Cubs and Braves).
"Boo hoo" I thought and also exclaimed out loud. Next thing I know,
they sweep the Phillies and are right back in. Baseball.

So here we are with a huge series with the wild card leading Rockies.
Last August did the fish in. Except for the Nationals sweep, this
August has been excellent. The offense is scorching the ball like I've
never seen before from a marlins team. Now let's take a peak and what
has occurred this year:

Starting pitching: Except for JJ, completely inconsistent. What was
supposed to be the fishies great strength has been a battle all year.
Nolasco started off with a 9+ era only to get sent down and come back
and return to the Nolasco of last year. They had to call up Sean West
early due to injuries/demotions and he has done a very serviceable
job. Same with Vanderhurk. Sanchez got injured again, but he has not
been so hot. He's pitched some nice starts in the minors and should be
called up soon and the fish will need him to pitch well of they're to
make a push. If the fish starting pitching can someone stabilize (the
talent is there), then they could really go on a tear with bats
hitting like they are.

Bullpen: I got to give high marks to the pen although Fredi's
management of them has been quite bad at times. What was perceived to
be a huge weakness has been excellent for the toddlers in teal. Brian
Sanches, Kiko Calero, Dan Meyer, Burke Badenhop, Brian Donnelly and
Leo Nunez have done a great job. Lindstrom has not been so effective
and I cringe at him closing again. The pen has pitched a whole bunch
of innings, which means the starters really need to starting rattling
off the quality starts.

Bats: The fish started hot, then went ice cold. Uggla was having a
horrible year with his average below .200 at one point. Bonifacio was
just awful and so is Hermida. Then all of a sudden the fish have had
10 hits in the last 10 games for the first time ever. Everyone is
killing the ball right now (well except for hermida). Uggla has
finally hit his stride, Hanley is Hanley, Coghlan is a bad ass, ross
is clutch and the baker/paulino combo has put up the best numbers in
the mlb at the catcher position since the all star break. And Nick
Johnson has been absolutely amazing (he gets his own section). Gload
and Helms have been awesome coming off the bench. They rank 1st and
3rd in the MLB for pinch hits and Gload's walk off brought a tear to
my eye. Watch out phillies.

Defense: Definitely much improved. Besides Bonifacio's ineptitude at
third and hermida in RF, the defense has been good to stellar at
times. I recall there was a 10 or so game streak without an error.
Coghlan has become quite the left fielder considering his natural
position is 2nd base. Nice job fish.

Nick Johnson: In terms of impact, I would argue that NJ was the best
mid-season trade by any mlb team. This guy is the piece the fish were
missing. Bonifacio's OBP is about .290 while NJ's is over .400 and is
6th in the MLB. Having him hit between the smoking hot Coghlan (8
multi-hit games in a row) and Hanley has been huge for this team. On
top of that, Boni has flourished in the utility role. His gold glove
also hasn't hurt, although it has taken Cantu a little bit to get
settled at third.

Not to bad at all. And what's next for our fishies? I think the win
the division. The Phillies will collapse while the finish continue
their hot hitting with solid pitching to back up. Once the fish get
into the playoffs, we all know what happens next....