The Mistake by the Lake (or how Brett Favre is a big mistake)

Not that the Browns are looking so hot nowadays, but the mistake by the lake I'm referring to involves Minnesota and not the city that bears the unfortunate nickname. Brett Favre is back. It makes the Vikings more interesting, but does it really make them that much better?

If you watch ESPN, the obvious answer seems to yes, of course, idiot, But look at it this way:

Does Brett Favre make Minnesota a Super Bowl contender? No. Their secondary still isn't great, their head coach is still a cross between a high school coach and a porn star, and their quarterback still has a penchant for throwing costly interceptions.

Is Brett Favre the best quarterback in the NFC North? Again, no. He's third behind Cutler, who is like a younger Favre in a lot of ways, and Aaron Rodgers.

Is it a good idea to sign a 39 year old quarterback after training camp? No. He has no chemistry with his receivers, offensive line, coaches and running backs. His arrival means Sage Rosenfels and Tavaris Jackson are thrown under the bus. He doesn't fully know the playbook. All of this means that he's going to be more inclined to wing it during the season, and with Favre, that can be a dangerous proposition. He's the all-time leader in interceptions for a reason.

How motivated will Favre be, especially if he loses to the Packers twice this season? This is the hardest question to answer. Some people think his return is motivated by revenge and if he loses out on that, will he care about the rest of the season? I have no idea.

Is Brett Favre worth $12 million for one year? No. The Vikings paid $12 million for a one-year traveling circus. They paid $12 million to give Brad Childress one last chance to prove he's a competent NFL head coach. The last head coach that pinned his hopes to Favre ended up fired and exiled to coach in Cleveland. By some accounts last year, Brett was a primadonna in the locker room.

Is 39 year old Brett Favre $11 million better than 39 year old Jeff Garcia? No. Call me crazy, but I would rather have Garcia. He's well-versed in the West Coast offense and he takes care of the football. He doesn't have the arm strength of Favre, but he's a lot less likely to throw stupid interceptions. In his last four years, Favre has had one really good one and three mediocre to bad ones. We forget this because the Brett Favre hype machine is always on during the season, but if he were anyone else, he would have been replaced before he had the chance to have that one good year in 2007. Garcia has had three pretty good years out of the last four years, and his one bad year in that period came with the Detroit Lions, so that's hardly fair to hold that against him. And here's the kicker: Garcia makes $1 million this year as a backup. The Vikings could have had him if they went after him early in the offseason. He was a good fit for their offense.

I see the Vikings getting a nice 9-7 season out of the Favre experiment. Their ceiling is really 10-6, and there's a good chance they finish under .500 and get Childress fired.