Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Playoff time for the NBA

Listening to Frank Deford on NPR as I type this. He's like the Andy Rooney of sports, all full of amazement at trends that people have seen and lived through for the last 15 years. Who knew that a point guard was just as important as a big man in basketball? Or that point guards can create their own shot? Or that, and I hope you're sitting down for this revelation, Magic revolutionized the position. He seems to have no idea that basketball stats have gotten increasingly complex and comprehensive and that yes, we can determine if say Chris Paul has a greater impact on his team than Tyson Chandler. Note to Deford: Paul makes Chandler a good player, so yes, the point guard is more valuable in this case. Seems like he slept through the 90s when, aside from the Duncan-Robinson Spurs in '99 and the Dream-led Rockets in '94 and '95, the decade was dominated by a shooting guard named Michael Jordan. Hell, you could argue that since the late 80s, guards determined who won the NBA championship. Magic and Isiah were the two most important players from '87-'90. I'll give him this: the 2000s have been dominated by big men (Shaq and Duncan have combined for 6 of the titles in the decade and Garnett was arguably the most important Celtic last year), but all that means is that Deford doesn't know basketball pre-2000.

On to more important things.

Well, the 82 game NBA season is finally coming to a close and here's what we think we know about it:

1. The Lakers will be unchallenged in the West and maybe sweep through everyone. They'll only lose a game if they're bored. With Bynum back, the team is at full strength, and this was a group that trampled through the West without much effort even without their 7 foot prodigy.

2. The Cavs and Celtics will meet up in the Eastern Conference Finals. They have to. The season has been building to this matchup.

3. The Cavs will win the East if Garnett isn't 100%.

4. Garnett is not 100%.

5. Orlando needs to dominate a postseason series before people start accepting them as a bonafide championship contender.

6. Seeds 4-8 don't matter in the East. Only Miami has a chance at putting a real scare into one of the top teams. Chicago looks good, but do you really trust Vinny Del Negro to win a playoff series?

7. Seeds 2-8 don't matter in the West. And there could be 6 teams in that bunch with 50 wins. But each one of those teams is so fundamentally flawed (Portland has no playoff experience, the Spurs are old and broken down, the Hornets look out of sorts and Chandler and Peja are hurt, Houston doesn't have a go-to end of game scorer, Utah just looks awful lately, the Mavs are the Mavs and still have to rely on Jason Kidd to defend at least one athletic point guard in the playoffs (Yikes!) and Denver has no front court depth) that it seems unlikely that any of them will get past the Lakers.

8. Out of those flawed teams, I like Portland and the Rockets. Yao and Artest should be enough to get the Rockets out of the first round if they play either the Hornets or the Mavs. Portland can beat just about any of the other teams that aren't the Lakers except maybe the Spurs. Parker's a tough matchup for them and the playoff experience of the Spurs could prove too much for the young Trailblazers.

9. Why is everyone saying that Detroit is dangerous? This has been a common theme in the latter part of the season by sportswriters on every major site. Detroit is terrible and the thought that a sub-500 team can turn it on in the playoffs is absurd. I've watched a little bit of Detroit basketball this year and Rasheed Wallace is done. He's not just hurt, he's spent. He's got nothing in the tank. If he catches fire from 3 point range, he can be dangerous, but he's not willing or able to consistently post up players and defend the post. They count on Kwame Brown for big minutes. I think that should be repeated. They count on KWAME BROWN, YES, THAT KWAME BROWN, the one with BUST branded all over him, for big minutes. Tayshaun isn't that good offensively. He should be. He has all the tools, but for some reason, he just hasn't been that great. This team doesn't have a point guard. They have a bunch of shooting guards with Will Bynum, Rip Hamilton, A.I. (though he's played his last game with the team), Arron Afflalo and Rodney Stuckey. With Chauncey, this team is a 4 seed and is dangerous. They still wouldn't be beating the top teams, but they'd beat anyone from the 5th seed down and they'd take any of the Big 3 in the East to at least 6 games. But they made a bonehead deal for A.I. and now they're the 8th seed and they look like the easiest team to beat in either conference.

10. The Cavs are the best team in the league, but I'm not sure that anyone is afraid of playing them. In the West, there's a scramble to avoid playing the Lakers in the first or second round. I don't see that in the East. I think Boston and Orlando both want Cleveland and Orlando, especially, has manhandled Cleveland in the regular season and so has no reason to fear them. Even Detroit, who aren't a threat to anyone and will probably be swept and blown out by 20 in each game against the Cavs, don't fear them. I suspect that might change once the Cavs sweep Detroit.

Friday, April 3, 2009

Chicago's the big winner of the Cutler trade

I know. They traded two first round picks and Kyle Orton, but it's worth it. The Bears knew what they had in Kyle Orton. He can be a decent quarterback with the right talent around him. He can manage a game effectively. He can make two or three big throws a game and hand off to a running back for the rest of it. Essentially, he's what Kerry Collins is now. But Cutler can be spectacular. Cutler is a franchise QB. He threw for more than 4,000 yards last year. He's very good. The Bears are now set at the quarterback position for the next 10 years. I think any team would gladly give up a decent talent and two 1st round picks to be set at the most important position in the game for the next decade.

As for the Broncos, well, you never ever trade a franchise quarterback, especially one that's only 25 years old. They'll regret this for years. Kyle Orton might be good enough for them, but they'll always wonder what if. I think there's enough around Orton in Denver to make him effective. Their offensive line is solid. They've got good receivers in Eddie Royal and Brandon Marshall. They have a stable of decent running backs. They should be able to be effective offensively. But, think of how good they would be with a great quarterback. As it is, the Broncos don't look like they're challenging the Chargers for the division any time soon.

Side note on the Chargers: They went 8-8, snuck into the playoffs in the last week of the regular season, and have done absolutely nothing to improve the team in the offseason. How can they be satisfied with an 8-8 team? Oh right, Norv's the coach. They better watch out. The cellar dwellers of the AFC West have both gotten better. Oakland will continue to get better as JaMarcus Russell improves. They've got a dynamic backfield with Michael Bush, Darren McFadden and Justin Fargas. Their receivers improved late in the year and they're in position to draft a special talent like Michael Crabtree. Kansas City traded for a real quarterback. No offense to Tyler Thigpen, who looked good in some games last year, but Matt Castle was great last year and should be good for KC. They kept Tony Gonzalez. Dwayne Bowe should be even better with a real QB throwing to him. And the defense has to get better with all the youth they have there. In fact, had they not stupidly traded Jared Allen last year (double-digit sack machine and he was only 26 at the time), this team would look like a sleeper contender.

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Instant Karma?

The Orlando Magic lost to the surging, but lowly Toronto Raptors tonight, 99-95. The home loss hurts Orlando because they're competing with the Celtics for the number two seed in the Eastern Conference, and they have now fallen percentage points behind Boston. But should they have seen this loss coming?

From the AP by way of ESPN.com: In an April Fool's joke that left everyone but the contestant laughing, the Magic made a fan think he was shooting a half-court shot for $100,000 at halftime. The fan was blindfolded, and the crowd was told beforehand to cheer as if he made the shot. The young contestant, named Dan, missed badly but believed he won and danced around the court in a frenzy. Before being told it was a joke and showed the replay he said, "I just got laid off at work." He was given a 100 Grand Bar of candy instead but was not laughing.

Poor taste, Orlando Magic.

Sunday, March 29, 2009

A tale of two inbounds plays

I haven't written much about the tournament because I don't like to harp on how I'm losing money, but I caught the end of the Villanova-Pitt game and I had to point out a couple things.

Villanova might be the best team in the tournament when they are on. I saw them dismantle Duke and that game was even more one-sided than the final score indicated. Against Pitt, Nova was not at its best, but they still had spurts that made me think that not even Pitt's tough squad could hang with them.

The other thing worth noting: Villanova ran the all-time worst inbounds play ever with about 6 seconds left in the game. Facing full court pressure, no Nova players were coming to the ball until it was too late. The inbounder threw a full court pass that couldn't be handled, Pitt stole the ball, was fouled (doh!) and tied the game. Nova then made up for it by running an incredible inbounds play following the Pitt free throws, and having guard Scottie Reynolds drive half the court for the game-winning floater.

Saturday, March 28, 2009

The obligatory Raiders update that only two people care about

By request of Jesse Bryan, here's an update on what's happening in the crazier part of the great north bay.

The Raiders have essentially swapped Jake Grove for Samson Satele. ESPN the Magazine, which by the way is a lot of glossy pages without a lot of content, is high on Jake Grove, but I don't see it. He's not a bad center, but he's injury prone and the big knock on him was that he wasn't very strong. He had a good year last year, but he always struggled against bigger nose tackles (Jamal Williams ate him alive last season) and there's a possibility that his numbers were inflated by facing extremely weak D-lines in Denver and KC twice a year. Samson Satele is 24 and has two years of experience already. He's a good fit for the zone blocking system the Raiders employ and he's cheaper than Grove. Player salaries are going to continue to be a bigger part of teams' planning now that the salary cap will most likely be out after this year.

Look at this deal another way. The Raiders let Grove go, saved money and then traded a sixth round pick for his replacement, a starter on a division champ last year. That's a great deal.

Belated condolences to the family of Marquis Cooper, Corey Smith and Will Bleakley.

Cornell Green was arrested for hitting the mother of his children with a mop handle. Idiot.

Circle your calendars. The Raiders are playing on Thanksgiving for the first time in 39 years. They also get a Monday Night Football home opener against the Chargers. That could be ugly.

Contrary to popular belief, the Raiders never inquired about Terrell Owens and the Buffalo Bills, a team nobody picked to sign him, signed him. And this is something I really hate about the sports media. Whenever someone who's a talented malcontent is out on the market, the assumption is always that the Raiders will sign him. Why is that? They've passed on a number of gifted assholes in the past. But people like Chris Mortensen will continue to further these rumors without any basis for it. Mort is especially bad about this because he's admitted in the past that he doesn't bother contacting the Raiders for their side of the story.

The Raiders have actually been pretty quiet in free agency this year. They took care of their own (Nnamdi Asomugha and Chris Johnson's deals) and got some bargains to shore up areas of needs (Khalif Barnes, Samson Satele). They cut Gibril Wilson a bit prematurely, but he wasn't worth the money. Plus, now they need a safety so Al can draft his favorite position in the draft. Ugh.

Speaking of the draft, here's what Al and Tom should be looking at: Receiver, Defensive Line, Offensive Line, Linebacker, and then maybe Safety. There's a few really good receivers in the first round. Crabtree is going to be great. He's got great hands, great vision and incredible athleticism. Percy Harvin, if he stays healthy, is by far the most explosive receiver of the last few years. Forget the 40 times. The guy is what they call "football fast," meaning he's quick on the field. Even Jeremy Maclin, who I'm not as high on, has the potential to be very good. He's like a Harvin-lite, quick, elusive and deceptively strong.

Another guest post about the Marlins from you know who

On vacation in beautiful sunny, hot, humid, sometimes disgusting...er..often disgusting Florida and I thought it was appropriate to throw it to our favorite guest poster, Jesse Bryan, for a look at how the Marlins are doing. They're trying to build a stadium in the least convenient part of Miami to travel to, right in the middle of a stinking shithole of a neighborhood (no offense to the people that live there, but you know) rather than building in West Broward so that the Broward and West Palm residents that make up the bulk of their season ticket holders could easily reach the stadium. Like most Miami stadium/arena ventures, I expect that it will be evident that this one is a complete failure within two years. Also, the Marlins will still draw 7,000 fans a night because the stadium has never been the big problem. A new stadium is not a cure for sports apathy. Anyway, on with the guest post. Thanks again to Jesse for doing this, he's a fine writer who loves his Marlins:



Ladies and jellyfish,



Due to the scintillating success of my first post and the non-stop demand for more marlins chatter, I will try to make my posts this relatively constant throughout the season. First, I want to once again thank Jason “Boney-Bologna” Sanchez for letting me use his forum for my expert in-depth coverage. I also want to extend a warm hug and caramel apple to you, the reader, for your continued and undying support. Even though you did not give me the curtsey of leaving a single comment on my first post, I know that in your heart you made enough comments to fill the Nile River 3 times over. And for that I thank you and dedicate this post to you, my loyal and devoted reader. Anyway, I wanted to devote this post to one of the most important events in Marlins history: the new stadium.

Say hello to your Miami Marlins (b. 2012) and adios to any talk of the Las Vegas Marlins. The stadium has been approved and will be built in Little Havana on the site of the old orange bowl. Besides the creation of the team in 1991, this has to be the most significant event in team history. It has been over a decade in the making and it is pretty impressive/shocking they were able to get this done considering the economic climate in Miami, which has been one of the hardest hit spots in the country. My gracious host, Mr. Sanchez, has expressed serious concerns about the public financing of the stadium (which I also expressed), I now must say I cautiously sort-of but not really, okay I do, but for my own selfish fish-loving reasons, support it.

$480 million of the $634 million cost will from public money (ie: from Winifred William Taxpayer). The plan here is to have tourist dollars in the form of a hotel bed tax pay for the bulk of this. Fair enough. There were also clauses included to make sure Loria doesn’t pull a fast one by selling the team once the stadium is built. If he sells (which he has repeatedly said he has no intention to do so) in the first year the city gets 90% of the profits and every year thereafter it goes down a certain percentage. Not bad, not bad. The yay-sayers say it will create vital jobs in this depressed economy. The nay-sayers say it will be short-term fix and is not a long term solution. Both have valid points. Is the city fronting too much of the bill? Probably (although this actually lower than some other stadium deals). Is this the best place for a city devastated by the current economic climate to put its money? Probably not. Do stadiums help the communities they are forced upon? Historically, this answer seems to be an emphatic “no”. So I don’t know what to think. At least Miami didn’t buy 15 or so Apache helicopters with $480 mil. Socio-economic factors aside, for the team and fans it is great news. This could finally mean retention of players and actual free-agent signings (but the no-name players and underdog spirit are a big reason what attracts me to the team, no?). Will this new stadium attract a significantly greater fan base that actually attends games? I tend to think yes. I believe the marlins potential lies within it being a Miami team. That’s where the real fan potential lies and where this team can really build up a legacy. Who needs/wants the Boca Raton/Palm Beach County yuppie scum anywho (I don’t get why people think they are so important.. Whenever I’m in WPB during a marlins game, we generally have to ask to have the game turned on, and even then no gives a rats popsickle). There is also the issue of what happens if (when) it goes over-budget. Either it’s happening. It is finally happening. Pro-Player is a horrible spot for the fish to play 81 games a year and the new stadium design is pretty impressive (retractable roof, etc) and will surely up the attendance numbers. One side of me is thrilled to have the team guaranteed a future. The other side wonders if this is the best use of money and would it not be better to invest the money into social/economic services for the same area. Are giant public works projects that ultimately put the bulk of money into the riches hands really the best way to fix an ailing economy? This whole thing is full of contradictions. So reader, I’d love to hear your thoughts on the issue so feel free to leave a comment or 2.

On the spring training front, it has been moving along about as fast as a dead slug, but opening day is coming faster than Mike Lindstrom’s fastball. I will have a post before opening day about this season’s expectations (it was supposed to be this post, but I got carried away with the stadium banter). I think the marlins have a great team this year and have the potential to take the division or wild card. Nolasaco’s pitched a rare spring training no-hitter a few nights ago so bravo to him. I fully expect him to carry that into the regular season. Until next time my little fishies!

To get you salivating for more, here is a preview of words/phrases that may or not be used in my next post: team, baseball, catfish, underwear, chicken socks, Deleware, rosemary, the Great Unknown, Henry Kissinger, Ocean’s 12, that-a-boy, moonbat, zygote, hand-me-down, The fall of Babylon, furry, Chiclets, cold-cuts, underground railroad, Shinobi, hamster, ricotta cheese, quantum physics, and hair.

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

catching up

Something called the World Baseball Classic happened and Japan won. It looked like baseball but felt like soccer to most Americans, including the USA team that played in the thing. None of them cared about the outcomes of the games and used them to try and "get their reps in" for spring training. In other news, Davey Johnson got to pretend to be a real, bonafide big league manager again and showed exactly why he shouldn't have that job longer than three weeks.

The Broncos continue to piss off moody quarterback Jay Cutler. This seems to be a really bad strategy for handling your star player. The guy had a Pro Bowl season last year, and while some writers have been quick to point to his overall losing record as a starter, I'm even quicker to point out that the Broncos have been deceptively shitty, especially on defense, during that period. Point is, it's not Cutler's fault the team is lousy. He's growing into the job. Only been at it for a few years and he's getting better each year.

What is his fault is the thin skin he wears. He's pissed about almost being traded so he wants to be traded. Go figure.

The NBA season is winding up and the teams are locking in their seeding. The Lakers are clearly number one in the West and San Antonio is most likely locked into the two spot. In the East, Cleveland has a stranglehold on the one spot and Boston and Orlando will most likely follow in that order. Atlanta (!) is four and the Heat will rise no further than fifth. That leaves Philly to hold off Detroit for six and one other team to sneak into the playoffs. The three through eight seeds in the West are still in flux and no one's quite sure if surging Phoenix can sneak in and knock the Mavs out for the privilege of being swept by LA in the first round.

Your NBA Finals: Lakers vs. Cavs/Celts, but most likely Cavs. LA in 6. The Lakers match up well with the Cavs. I'll write more about this as we get closer to it actually happening, but let's just say this: the Lakers can't handle quick driving guards (read: Rondo). Spot up shooters (Mo Williams, Boobie Gibson), on the other hand, are a lot easier to defend.

see you in another three weeks....heh.