Playoff time for the NBA

Listening to Frank Deford on NPR as I type this. He's like the Andy Rooney of sports, all full of amazement at trends that people have seen and lived through for the last 15 years. Who knew that a point guard was just as important as a big man in basketball? Or that point guards can create their own shot? Or that, and I hope you're sitting down for this revelation, Magic revolutionized the position. He seems to have no idea that basketball stats have gotten increasingly complex and comprehensive and that yes, we can determine if say Chris Paul has a greater impact on his team than Tyson Chandler. Note to Deford: Paul makes Chandler a good player, so yes, the point guard is more valuable in this case. Seems like he slept through the 90s when, aside from the Duncan-Robinson Spurs in '99 and the Dream-led Rockets in '94 and '95, the decade was dominated by a shooting guard named Michael Jordan. Hell, you could argue that since the late 80s, guards determined who won the NBA championship. Magic and Isiah were the two most important players from '87-'90. I'll give him this: the 2000s have been dominated by big men (Shaq and Duncan have combined for 6 of the titles in the decade and Garnett was arguably the most important Celtic last year), but all that means is that Deford doesn't know basketball pre-2000.

On to more important things.

Well, the 82 game NBA season is finally coming to a close and here's what we think we know about it:

1. The Lakers will be unchallenged in the West and maybe sweep through everyone. They'll only lose a game if they're bored. With Bynum back, the team is at full strength, and this was a group that trampled through the West without much effort even without their 7 foot prodigy.

2. The Cavs and Celtics will meet up in the Eastern Conference Finals. They have to. The season has been building to this matchup.

3. The Cavs will win the East if Garnett isn't 100%.

4. Garnett is not 100%.

5. Orlando needs to dominate a postseason series before people start accepting them as a bonafide championship contender.

6. Seeds 4-8 don't matter in the East. Only Miami has a chance at putting a real scare into one of the top teams. Chicago looks good, but do you really trust Vinny Del Negro to win a playoff series?

7. Seeds 2-8 don't matter in the West. And there could be 6 teams in that bunch with 50 wins. But each one of those teams is so fundamentally flawed (Portland has no playoff experience, the Spurs are old and broken down, the Hornets look out of sorts and Chandler and Peja are hurt, Houston doesn't have a go-to end of game scorer, Utah just looks awful lately, the Mavs are the Mavs and still have to rely on Jason Kidd to defend at least one athletic point guard in the playoffs (Yikes!) and Denver has no front court depth) that it seems unlikely that any of them will get past the Lakers.

8. Out of those flawed teams, I like Portland and the Rockets. Yao and Artest should be enough to get the Rockets out of the first round if they play either the Hornets or the Mavs. Portland can beat just about any of the other teams that aren't the Lakers except maybe the Spurs. Parker's a tough matchup for them and the playoff experience of the Spurs could prove too much for the young Trailblazers.

9. Why is everyone saying that Detroit is dangerous? This has been a common theme in the latter part of the season by sportswriters on every major site. Detroit is terrible and the thought that a sub-500 team can turn it on in the playoffs is absurd. I've watched a little bit of Detroit basketball this year and Rasheed Wallace is done. He's not just hurt, he's spent. He's got nothing in the tank. If he catches fire from 3 point range, he can be dangerous, but he's not willing or able to consistently post up players and defend the post. They count on Kwame Brown for big minutes. I think that should be repeated. They count on KWAME BROWN, YES, THAT KWAME BROWN, the one with BUST branded all over him, for big minutes. Tayshaun isn't that good offensively. He should be. He has all the tools, but for some reason, he just hasn't been that great. This team doesn't have a point guard. They have a bunch of shooting guards with Will Bynum, Rip Hamilton, A.I. (though he's played his last game with the team), Arron Afflalo and Rodney Stuckey. With Chauncey, this team is a 4 seed and is dangerous. They still wouldn't be beating the top teams, but they'd beat anyone from the 5th seed down and they'd take any of the Big 3 in the East to at least 6 games. But they made a bonehead deal for A.I. and now they're the 8th seed and they look like the easiest team to beat in either conference.

10. The Cavs are the best team in the league, but I'm not sure that anyone is afraid of playing them. In the West, there's a scramble to avoid playing the Lakers in the first or second round. I don't see that in the East. I think Boston and Orlando both want Cleveland and Orlando, especially, has manhandled Cleveland in the regular season and so has no reason to fear them. Even Detroit, who aren't a threat to anyone and will probably be swept and blown out by 20 in each game against the Cavs, don't fear them. I suspect that might change once the Cavs sweep Detroit.