Saturday, April 25, 2009

not so instant draft analysis

Worst pick of the first round: Mark Sanchez - #5 overall by the Jets.
The Jets traded the farm to get the quarterback they wanted, but why? Is Sanchez a franchise quarterback? Well, I don't think so. Let's look at some of Mark Sanchez's numbers last year.

He lit up Penn State to tune of 413 yards, 4 TDs and 80% completion. But he stunk up the joint against Arizona State and really didn't play any top defenses. He had a pretty good year last year, but is he a one-year wonder? He's not really a guy they want to start right away and what else do the Jets have at that position? Kellen Clemens, Erik Ainge. These aren't guys that you want holding down the fort for a couple years while Sanchez gets his legs under him.

Second worst pick of the first round: Darrius Heyward-Bey - #7 overall by the Raiders. Good god. Crabtree's on the board and the Raiders go with a guy that had two games last season where he didn't have a catch. It's a classic Raiders pick. Heyward-Bey runs a great 40 time and looks like a good athlete, but his hands and football IQ are questionable. By the way, 40 times are pretty meaningless. It's rare that a player is going to run 40 yards in a straight line in a football game.

The Browns, on the other hand, put on a draft deal clinic, trading down multiple times to pick up more picks and they still got the guy they wanted. The Bengals also made the most of their two picks and got Andre Smith, maybe the top offensive tackle, and Rey Maualuga, maybe the top middle linebacker.

Though really, the truth is this analysis is only a guess. No one really knows who will be a bust and who will have a bust made in Canton one day. It takes a good three to four years to really get a handle on how successful a team's draft was. Look at KC's draft last year. Everyone gave them an A, but Dorsey was invisible last season. So now, that draft doesn't look so great, but there's a chance that he makes an impact this year. If by his third or fourth year, he's still invisible, you can safely say it was a wasted pick and a failed draft. So don't believe the grades you read right now, even from and maybe especially from me. And don't buy people that put up 38 mock drafts. They stlll don't get the picks right.

3 comments:

pollyvonwog said...

Upon reflection, I am actually okay with the raiders draft. Kiper, one of the ESPN draft day goons, said he would be fine with the heyward-bey pick if raiders traded down to 13-15 range....The problem is, no teams would trade the raiders! So it doesn't really bother me that the raiders got who they wanted. Crabtree has an attitude problem anyway. Evidently the giants really coveted heyward-bey as well and were planning on trading up for him until the raiders snatched him. When the raiders took ashmougha first round, these same analysts and scouts had a field day with the raiders...Likewise when Gallery was taken, all these anaylsts and scouts thought he was the perfet pick..So I agree with your point that all this bickering is really quite useless until a few years after! Also of interest, it is confirmed the bears were going to draft michael mitchell in the 2nd round if the raiders didn't (bears were 2 picks behind the raiders). Maybe the draft wasn't so bad after all.

pollyvonwog said...

Interesting little piece from mr. kiper himself, who had mitchell ranked like 234932049th in his position at first...

Most Likely To Make The Raiders Look Good: When the Raiders took Mitchell in the middle of Round 2, the TV guys didn't even have a highlight ready to go. It might be because Kiper had him rated as a sixth-rounder, at best, but more likely an undrafted free agent. "I'll say this: Oakland took Michael Mitchell, OK?" Kiper said. "I asked teams after the draft. The misnomer is it's all Mel Kiper's opinion, it's all Todd McShay. You have to ask other teams. We're not the end-all, be-all. Some said they had him as a free agent. One team told me they had Michael Mitchell in the third round. They had him as a Pro Bowler. They think it's a great pick by the Oakland Raiders. So Oakland wasn't the only team out on the island that saw something in that kid."

The Idiot Fan said...

Crabtree actually doesn't have an attitude problem. That was started by Eric Mangini, who actually does have an attitude problem.

i just wish they could have traded huff and gotten something out of that.